Asia Plus names TRUE a top pick, set to benefit as floods drive call volumes higher

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Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities assesses that heavy rain and severe flooding in the final week of September 2026 drove a sharp rise in voice call volumes, especially in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces, up 51% to 60% from the previous week. This contrasts with the usual pattern, in which people favour data usage. The LINE application saw the largest increase in usage because it supports voice calls. On the data side, uploads from mobile phones also rose substantially, particularly in the Rom Klao and Khlong Chan housing areas. The research team views this shift in usage behaviour as positive for sentiment on both ADVANC and TRUE, but expects it will not add much to overall revenue, because the severe flooding was confined to limited areas and had already begun to ease in early October 2026. The team expects operating trends in the third quarter of 2026 for both ADVANC and TRUE to still grow well year on year, helped by higher gross margins than in the third quarter of 2025, which was still weighed down by the roaming service agreement with NT that ended in early August 2025. For the fourth quarter of 2026, profits at both companies are expected to benefit from the year-end festive season, which will support both service revenue and handset sales, with the iPhone 18 entering its first full quarter. The research team maintains an overweight stance on the ICT sector relative to the market, because it expects the operating results of ADVANC and TRUE, the key drivers of sector profit, to keep improving both half on half and year on year in the second half of 2026, which should lift the sector's normalised profit overall by about 20% year on year in 2026 and by a further 12% year on year in 2027. It picks TRUE as its top pick because it has stronger short-term catalysts, and expects TRUE's third-quarter 2026 profit to grow better than ADVANC's both quarter on quarter and year on year. It also expects an interim dividend for the third-quarter 2026 period of 0.15 baht, a yield of 1.2%.

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Cloud & Digital Infrastructure▲

Off-coverage companies 1

National Telecom Public Company Limitedi
Private± Mixedrelevance