BHP Forecasts Potash Deficit by 2035 as Buffalo Potash Advances Disley Project

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BHP expects global potash demand to grow 2% to 3% a year and sees the market potentially moving into deficit by 2035, according to Karina Gistelinck, the company's head of potash, in a March interview with Bloomberg. BHP is itself building much of the new supply it refers to through its Jansen project in Saskatchewan, whose first-stage investment is now put at US$8.4 billion, up from US$5.7 billion when it was approved in 2021, with first production back on a mid-2027 schedule. Jansen's first stage is meant to reach 4.1 million tonnes a year within two years of startup, while Buffalo Potash's Initial Production Module at the Disley project in Saskatchewan is designed for 125,000 tonnes a year, roughly 3% of that, with first production targeted for Q1 2027. Buffalo's preliminary economic assessment contemplates up to 1.125 million tonnes a year across three facilities for US$639 million in initial capital, with Disley West and Disley East starting in July and October 2029, but that depends on a positive construction decision gated by a feasibility study. On September 25, Buffalo announced it had finished the third and final horizontal well at the IPM, bringing the project to five wells, with each horizontal well reporting about 95% contact with the target clay seam, though brine circulation has yet to prove the Horizontal Line-Drive system works at commercial scale.

Impact on assets 1

Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲
BHP Group Limited
BHP
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

BHP forecasts a global potash deficit by 2035 while building its own Jansen supply, with first-stage investment rising to US$8.4 billion and first production on a mid-2027 schedule.

Off-coverage companies 1

Buffalo Potash Corp.i
Private▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Buffalo Potash completed the third and final horizontal well at its Disley IPM, bringing the project to five wells with about 95% contact with the target clay seam.