Bualuang Securities said the impact of flooding on CBG is only a short-term disruption and does not change the core growth picture. The key driver remains the increase in domestic energy drink market share, with CBG targeting 10% YoY sales growth in 2027, compared with the market's expected growth of only about 3% and the broker's estimate of 7%. Market share is expected to rise from 27% at the end of 2025 to 30% at the end of 2026 and 32% at the end of 2027, while the main selling price of 10 baht remains a competitive strength. The 2027 profit base will be more diversified, coming from Myanmar, the distribution business, and OEM. Production capacity in Myanmar is set to increase from about 400,000 cases per month in the first half of 2026 to 800,000 cases per month in the second half of 2026, while the distribution business, which accounts for about 45% of sales, is still growing more than 20% YoY. LOVEZA aims to raise output from 40 million cans in 2026 to 100 million cans in 2027, which is expected to lift OEM revenue from 250 million baht to 540 million baht. The Bang Pakong plant was not directly affected by the flooding, so the main risks lie in transportation and the deferral of revenue recognition between the third and fourth quarters of 2026. The broker has revised its assumption for domestic energy drink sales in the third quarter of 2026 down to 5% YoY growth from 10% previously, and expects profit of 710 million baht, up 15% YoY but down 3% QoQ, below its previous estimate of 750 million baht and below the market. It estimates the flooding impact on 2026 profit at about 5%, but still expects core profit in 2027 to grow 15% YoY. It maintains its Buy recommendation but has cut its target price to 63 baht.
Carabao Group Public Company LimitedBroker maintains Buy on CBG, though it trims its target price to 63 baht on flooding-related short-term disruption.
