Bualuang Securities said DOHOME still looks set for strong 3Q26 earnings, forecasting net profit of 140 million baht, up 38% YoY but down 54% QoQ, helped by better sales and lower interest expense. Same-store sales growth, or SSSG, rose 5-7% YoY in July-August on a low base a year earlier, but is expected to slow to about 2% in September, putting the full quarter at roughly 4%. Gross margin is expected to hold steady YoY even though steel margins fell below the normal 10-12% range on inventory losses, as a higher share of own-brand products partly offsets the drag. However, the boost from new store openings is starting to fade after the company postponed all large-format store openings in 2026. It plans to open 12-15 ToGo outlets, but small stores account for only about 3% of total sales, while the next large-format branch will open in 1Q27, meaning sales growth over the remainder of the period must rely mainly on a recovery in SSSG. The 2027 outlook is not particularly attractive, as demand from both households and the construction sector remains weak. Private consumption is expected to grow only 2.6% YoY, while the government investment budget for fiscal 2027 falls 8.4% YoY to 789 billion baht, following a 7.6% decline in 2026. As a result, SSSG in 2027 is forecast at just 1.5% and core profit is expected to fall 5% YoY to 773 million baht, as margins return to normal levels and support from new stores diminishes. The broker maintains its Sell rating and 3.20 baht target price. Although the stock trades at a 2027 PER of about 15x, well below its historical average, the discount reflects weaker profit growth rather than an attractive valuation. Any share price gain driven by post-flood sales expectations should be seen as a chance to sell into strength rather than to chase the stock higher.
Dohome Public Company LimitedBroker maintains Sell rating and 3.20 baht target, forecasting 2027 core profit to fall 5% YoY to 773 million baht.
