Bualuang says CBG flood impact is only short-term, keeps Buy rating with new 63 baht target

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Summary · why it matters

Bualuang Securities stated that the current flood situation affects the business of Carabao Group, or CBG, only slightly and is a temporary disruption, and has not changed the long-term growth picture or the 2027 profit outlook, which is expected to grow 15% YoY, driven by three businesses: domestic energy drinks, operations in Myanmar, and the distribution and OEM contract manufacturing business for domestic energy drinks. CBG targets 2027 sales growth of 10% YoY, higher than the overall market, which is expected to grow about 7%, with market share projected to rise from 27% at the end of 2025 to about 30% at the end of 2026 and reach 32% at the end of 2027. In the Myanmar business, production capacity is being raised from about 400,000 cases per month in the first half of 2026 to 800,000 cases per month in the second half of 2026. Meanwhile, the OEM business under the LOVEZA brand targets lifting production capacity from 40 million cans in 2026 to 100 million cans in 2027, which is expected to push OEM revenue up from 250 million baht to 540 million baht. As for the flood impact, the Bang Pakong plant was not directly affected, but the main risk lies in the transport system and the delay in revenue recognition between the third and fourth quarters of 2026, prompting a revision of the domestic energy drink sales growth assumption for the third quarter of 2026 down to 5% YoY from a previously expected 15% YoY, and a decline of 3% QoQ, along with a cut in the third-quarter 2026 net profit forecast to 710 million baht from a previously expected 750 million baht. The net impact from the floods on 2026 profit is expected to be about 5%. Nevertheless, Bualuang Securities maintained its Buy recommendation while lowering its target price to 63 baht to reflect the short-term impact of the flood situation.

Impact on assets 1

Consumer Staples▼
Carabao Group Public Company Limited
CBG
▼ NegativeCapitalSupplyrelevance

Bualuang keeps Buy rating but cuts CBG target price to 63 baht and trims Q3 2026 profit forecast on flood-related revenue delays.

Off-coverage companies 1

Bualuang Securities Public Company Limitedi
Private± MixedCapitalrelevance

Bualuang Securities is the analyst issuing the Buy rating and lowered target price on CBG, not itself the subject of a fundamental development.