Bualuang Securities has upgraded its view on the telecom sector from "equal weight" to "overweight," seeing profits entering a stronger and more sustainable phase driven by a lower cost structure, more rational price competition, and reduced interest expenses. A key factor is that ARPU, or revenue per user, for both ADVANC and TRUE continues to rise even as data usage grows faster than the price per GB, reflecting that customers are willing to pay more for more data rather than the result of price-cutting competition. Meanwhile, prepaid package price increases since March are still gradually feeding through as a positive for the third quarter of 2026. On costs, TRUE's EBITDA margin rose from 50% in the first half of 2025 to 63% in the second quarter of 2026 after the end of its spectrum lease obligations with NT and the realization of roughly 7.1 billion baht per year in benefits from network consolidation, while ADVANC benefits from the merger with TTTBB and lower network costs. For the third quarter of 2026, core profit for the sector's stocks combined is expected at 20 billion baht, up 21% year on year, rising to 21.3 billion baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, which would be a new high for the sector. TRUE is expected to post a record core profit of 7.0 billion baht, up 54% year on year and 3% quarter on quarter, while ADVANC is expected to post core profit of 13 billion baht, up 8% year on year but down 5% quarter on quarter. GST is expected to remain in core loss of about 20 million baht. The research team raised its recommendation on TRUE from "trading buy" to "buy" with an unchanged target price of 15.10 baht, while maintaining a "buy" on ADVANC with a target price of 398 baht and keeping GST at avoid.
True Corporation Public Company LimitedBualuang upgrades TRUE to buy with 15.10 baht target, expecting record core profit of 7.0 billion baht, up 54% YoY, on higher EBITDA margin after spectrum lease end and network consolidation.
Advanced Info Service Public Company LimitedBualuang maintains buy with 398 baht target and expects ADVANC core profit of 13 billion baht, up 8% YoY, aided by TTTBB merger and lower network costs.
ADVANC benefits from its merger with TTTBB and lower network costs, cited as a driver of the sector's stronger profit outlook.
NT is mentioned only as the counterparty whose spectrum lease obligations with TRUE ended, a cost benefit for TRUE rather than a clear impact on NT.
