The current bull market is on track to become the seventh since the 1950s to complete at least four full years on Oct. 12, according to a new analysis by Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner. The 119% advance sits near the middle of the pack among the 11 bull markets since the 1950s, well below the 401% gain during the 2009-2020 cycle and the 582% gain from 1987-2000, while the historical average advance in Lerner's measurement period is 184%. Among bull markets that reached this stage, the fifth year produced an average return of 12% and a median return of 15%, and six of the 10 prior bull markets lasted longer than four years. Lerner wrote that continued economic growth, resilient corporate profits, and a meaningful reset in valuations provide a solid foundation for a constructive stance, though history suggests investors should not get caught off guard by volatility as the cycle matures. The S&P 500 is expected to report year-over-year earnings growth of 29.5% for the recently completed third quarter, which would mark the third consecutive quarter above 25% and the eighth straight quarter of double-digit percentage earnings growth, according to FactSet, with analysts calling for 27.6% growth in the fourth quarter and 32.4% for all of 2026. Barclays strategist Venu Krishna found that about 40% of year-to-date revisions to S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2026 are attributable to the semiconductor and hardware industries, while a substantial 75% of the year-to-date estimate revisions for 2027 come from those sectors.
Truist Financial CorpTruist's CIO Keith Lerner authored the bull-market analysis projecting an average 12% fifth-year gain, but the article reports no company-specific financial event.
