The Ministry of Commerce reported that headline inflation in September 2026 came in at 2.82%, accelerating from 2.53% in August, marking a second consecutive month of acceleration and the highest level in five months. Nantapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said the main driver was domestic fuel prices, which remain higher than a year earlier due to the impact of the energy security crisis in the Middle East. Fuel prices in September rose 20.69% from a year earlier and 5.95% from the previous month, contributing 1.85 percentage points to headline inflation, while prepared food contributed 0.65 percentage points and public transport fares 0.13 percentage points. Electricity costs, meanwhile, fell 7.54% from a year earlier. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, rose 1.50% from a year earlier, accelerating from a 1.44% increase in August. Average headline inflation over the first nine months of 2026 rose 1.54%. The Ministry of Commerce revised its forecast range for headline inflation in 2026 to 1.8–2.2% from 1.5–2.5%, keeping the midpoint at 2.0%, under assumptions that the Thai economy grows 2.0–2.5%, Dubai crude oil prices average 85–95 US dollars per barrel, and the exchange rate stands at 32.4–32.9 baht per US dollar. Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited assessed that September headline inflation of 2.82% was below the market expectation of 3.0%, and said the Monetary Policy Committee is likely to hold the policy interest rate at 1.0% for the remainder of 2026, a psychologically positive factor for the Stock Exchange of Thailand index and for shares in the industrial estate, power plant, banking, and construction sectors.
Bank of Ayudhya PCLInflation below expectations means the MPC is likely to hold rates at 1.0%, which Krungsri calls a psychologically positive factor for banking shares.
Inflation below market expectation supports the MPC holding rates at 1.0%, a factor that keeps the baht supported versus the dollar.
