Daiwa Securities estimates that CPAXT will post a net loss of 324 million baht in 3Q26E, but after excluding one-time expenses of about 2 billion baht related to the closure of small-format stores, normal profit is expected at 1.676 billion baht, down 10% YoY and 11% QoQ. The YoY decline stems from Retail SSSG contracting about 5% on still-fragile purchasing power, even though GPM is expected to expand to 16.4% from 16.1% in 3Q25 on better cost control and reduced shrinkage, as well as improved fresh food prices, but this is not enough to offset slowing revenue and higher SG&A. Meanwhile, profit fell QoQ even as GPM expanded from 15.9% in 2Q26, pressured by SG&A/Sales rising to 14.3% from 13.9% in 2Q26 due to employee expenses, Omni Channel expansion and last-mile delivery, plus pre-opening expenses for The Happitat. The research team cut its 2026E/27E normal profit forecasts by 4%/7% to 9.5/9.7 billion baht, or +1%/+3% YoY, on a slower-than-expected B2C recovery and still-high expenses. However, normal profit in 4Q26E is expected to rise to about 3.3 billion baht on seasonal factors and a year-ago base weighed down by IT system problems, flooding in Hat Yai, and border tensions. The closure of loss-making stores and cost controls will help reduce the expense burden and support profitability from 4Q26E onward. Daiwa maintains its Buy rating and target price of 17.00 baht, rolling the target to 2027E based on a PER of 18.3 times, which is 1.7 standard deviations below the five-year average. It views the current share price as having largely priced in the negatives from purchasing power and restructuring expenses, while the closure of loss-making stores will help reduce the expense burden and support the recovery of EBIT in 2027E.
CP Axtra Public Company LimitedDaiwa maintains Buy rating and 17.00 baht target, expecting normal profit to recover to 3.3 billion baht in 4Q26E as store closures cut expenses.
