Kasikorn Research Center estimates that floods in 2026 will cause damage to main-crop rice production of as much as 12 billion baht, or 0.06% of GDP. Damaged rice-growing areas total approximately 1.5 million rai, accounting for 2.5% of the country's total main-crop rice area and about 19% of the main-crop rice area in the Chao Phraya River basin. This flood situation has been ongoing since late September, covering 26 provinces including Bangkok and its vicinity, with continuous rainfall lasting more than 30 hours and accumulated rainfall 4 times higher than the normal average for the same period. Kasikorn Research Center must also monitor a new round of heavy rain during October 5-7 and October 11-14, which, combined with northern water masses, seawater intrusion, and increased water discharge from the Chao Phraya Dam, may raise water levels in low-lying areas of 11 provinces that are key rice-growing areas in the central region by another 40-70 centimeters. Rice prices are expected to rise by about 18% compared with the same period last year, even though as much as 61% of the country's main-crop rice area is in the northeastern region, which has been less affected by flooding than the central region.
Floods damage 1.5 million rai of main-crop rice area and cut production, tightening supply and pushing rice prices up about 18% year-on-year.
Kasikorn Research Center is the author of the flood-damage estimate, not a party affected by it.
