Kasikorn Research Center expects the Fed to hold rates in September, with one more hike seen in 2026

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Kasikorn Research Center expects the Fed to hold its policy rate at 3.50-3.75% at the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, 2026, even as the market assigns greater weight to a rate hike after headline inflation in August 2026 held steady at 3.4% year-on-year, in line with market expectations and with no clear sign of acceleration. This comes amid tight financial conditions, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising another 0.027% to 4.971%. Kasikorn Research Center expects the Fed to raise rates once over the remainder of 2026, and that hike is unlikely to mark the start of a new rate-hiking cycle. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has just decided to raise its policy rate by 0.25% at its meeting on September 10, 2026, its second increase this year, and the market is also watching the Bank of Japan meeting on September 18, 2026. Concerns about rate hikes by major central banks weighed on financial stocks, led by large leasing companies MTC, TIDLOR and SAWAD, which continued to decline. MTC closed at 29.25 baht, 22.52% below the average minimum target of 37.75 baht, and the pressure also hit power businesses carrying high debt. Chitra Amorntham, Deputy Managing Director of the Securities Analysis Department at Finansia Syrus Securities, sees the sharp share price decline as an opportunity to accumulate, because news of foreign central bank rate hikes is only sentiment, since Thailand's policy rate has not risen and stands at 1.00% per year. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities maintains a buy recommendation on MTC and keeps its target price at 44 baht, citing controllable asset quality, and expects net profit in 2026-2027 to have upside from provisioning expenses. MTC has no plan to raise its dividend level because it is still in a growth phase.

Impact on assets 5

Financials▼
Srisawad Power 1979 PCL
SAWAD
▼ NegativeMonetaryrelevance

SAWAD was named among the leasing companies hit by rate-hike concerns from major central banks.

Others▲

Off-coverage companies 1

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limitedi
Private± Mixedrelevance