KGI expects MRDIYT 3Q69F profit to reach 660 million baht, 50 new stores opened, target price 11 baht

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KGI Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis that it expects MRDIYT's net profit in 3Q69F to come in at 660 million baht, up 9% YoY but down 13% QoQ, bringing net profit for the 9M69F period to 2.1 billion baht, up 18% YoY, or 69% of the full-year profit forecast. The YoY profit increase came from continued store expansion and lower financial costs, partly offset by a lower gross margin. The QoQ decline reflects seasonal factors. The company is expected to open another 50 new stores in 3Q69F, bringing the total number of stores to 1,298, or an increase of 171 stores since the start of the year, against a full-year target of 210 new stores. Same-store sales growth is expected to be positive at 0.5%, so 3Q69F sales are forecast at 5.9 billion baht, up 19% YoY and 1% QoQ, putting 9M69F sales at 17.1 billion baht, up 19% YoY, or 72% of the full-year sales forecast. The gross margin is expected to be 51.1% in 3Q69F, down 1.3 percentage points YoY and 0.9 percentage points QoQ, due to promotional campaigns and clearance sales, bringing the 9M69F gross margin to 51.7%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY, still within the company's target range of 51-52%. The analyst maintains a year-end 2570F target price of 11.00 baht, based on a PER of 19.0x, raised from 10.30 baht, and keeps a buy recommendation. The company is expected to maintain its plan to open 200 new stores in 2570F, which will support future growth.

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