Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, or KKPS, said in an analysis dated October 8, 2026, that it maintains a Buy rating on Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, or BDMS, with a target price of 23.50 baht versus the current share price of 19.00 baht. It expects core profit in the third quarter of 2026 to grow 8% from the same period a year earlier to 4.6 billion baht, with a chance of setting a new quarterly record. KKPS expects revenue from Thai patients in the third quarter of 2026 to grow 6-7% from the same period a year earlier, supported by the influenza outbreak, while revenue from international patients is expected to grow about 10%, driven by patients from Myanmar, the United States and Bangladesh. However, revenue from Middle Eastern patients is likely to fall 5-10% from the same period a year earlier amid the conflict situation, though this is an improvement from the second quarter of 2026, when it dropped 24%. Revenue from Cambodian patients is expected to fall about 30%, but that is better than the previous decline of 70-80%. Excluding patients from the Middle East and Cambodia, international patient revenue is expected to grow 12-14% from the same period a year earlier, bringing total revenue in the third quarter of 2026 to an expected increase of about 7%, while the EBITDA margin is expected to improve 0.2 percentage points to 25.4%. For the fourth quarter of 2026, KKPS sees earnings continuing to grow even as the influenza outbreak eases, expecting revenue from Thai patients to still grow 3-5% from the same period a year earlier, while international patient revenue could still grow at a double-digit rate. In addition, BDMS had total extraordinary expenses of 416 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2025, keeping the year-earlier profit base low and opening the door for profit in the fourth quarter of 2026 to grow at a double-digit rate. On valuation, the research team views that BDMS currently trades at a 2026 P/E of about 19 times, below the regional average of about 29 times, while it expects net profit of 16.0 billion baht in 2026, rising to 17.5 billion baht in 2027 and 18.5 billion baht in 2028.
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company LimitedKKPS maintains Buy on BDMS with 23.50 baht target and expects record Q3 core profit of 4.6 billion baht, up 8% y/y.
