The Global Markets group at Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited estimates that the baht this week (September 28 to October 2, 2026) will likely move within a range of 33.15 to 33.65 baht per dollar. The market is watching key U.S. economic data, including the ISM manufacturing index and September non-farm payrolls, which, if still strong, would support the view that the Fed will keep monetary policy tight for longer and would help bolster the dollar. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to its highest level in 19 years, and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East amid a tight oil market are fueling concerns over both energy supply and inflationary pressure. On the domestic front, investors are monitoring the August current account figures after the Ministry of Commerce reported that exports expanded 24.3% year on year, while imports rose 25.1%, narrowing Thailand's trade deficit to 2.48 billion dollars in August. Over the past week, the baht closed weaker at 33.35 baht per dollar after trading in a range of 33.11 to 33.49 baht per dollar, with foreign investors selling 3,584 million baht of Thai stocks but buying 469 million baht of bonds.
Bank of Ayudhya PCLStrong US data and tight Fed policy would bolster the dollar while the baht closed weaker on foreign equity outflows.
Article says strong US data would keep Fed policy tight and the 10Y Treasury yield has surged to a 19-year high, pushing yields up.
