Liquor stocks rally across the board, Golden Seed Wine surges by daily limit, Goldman Sachs says industry destocking phase is over

21世纪经济··Read original
3▲7 ▼0Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

A-share liquor concept stocks rose collectively on July 15, with all sector constituents in positive territory. Golden Seed Wine surged by the daily limit, while Gujing Distillery, Shede Spirits, King's Luck, Jiugui Liquor, and Luzhou Laojiao all gained over 3%. Heavyweights Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Swellfun also followed the uptrend. Goldman Sachs' latest research note pointed out that the most difficult destocking phase for China's liquor industry has passed, with supply-side cuts accelerating, wholesale prices of core mid-to-high-end varieties gradually stabilizing, channel inventories trending healthier, and the industry in the very early stages of recovery. However, this rally contrasts with recently disclosed industry fundamentals. Swellfun released its 2026 half-year earnings forecast on July 14, expecting a net loss attributable to shareholders of 6.22 million yuan for the first half, swinging from profit to loss year-on-year, mainly due to the company proactively optimizing channel inventory structure during the industry's deep adjustment period, leading to a revenue decline of about 300 million yuan and a gross profit decline of about 250 million yuan. Shede Spirits also forecast on July 10 that its first-half net profit attributable to shareholders would drop sharply by 60.52% to 69.55% year-on-year, also mainly due to proactive shipment controls to stabilize prices. Several brokerages believe the liquor sector has confirmed a bottom and is showing marginal improvement. Nanjing Securities noted that the industry remains in a deep adjustment period, but leading brands are trading volume for price, with valuations at around the 10th percentile over the past decade, and medium-to-long-term investment value gradually emerging. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities and Kaiyuan Securities also believe that the stable wholesale price of Feitian Moutai demonstrates demand resilience, and the sector has entered a valuation trough, with a high probability of recovery in the second half of the year.

Impact on assets 9

Others▲
Sichuan Swellfun Co Ltd
600779
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Swellfun forecasted net loss for H1 2026 due to inventory optimization, but stock rose on sector rally.

Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd
000568
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Goldman Sachs says destocking phase over, wholesale prices stabilizing, channel inventories healthier, signaling demand recovery.

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd
000596
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Goldman Sachs says destocking phase over, wholesale prices stabilizing, channel inventories healthier, signaling demand recovery.

Jiugui Liquor Co Ltd
000799
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Goldman Sachs says destocking phase over, wholesale prices stabilizing, channel inventories healthier, signaling demand recovery.

Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd
000858
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Goldman Sachs says destocking phase over, wholesale prices stabilizing, channel inventories healthier, signaling demand recovery.