Sanward Securities' Mr. Chen expects the Mexican peso-yen to trade in a rangebound manner due to a lack of catalysts, forecasting a range of 9.05 to 9.35 yen this week. While the June US employment data came in below expectations and pushed back the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the Bank of Mexico is seen as having ended its rate-cutting cycle, keeping its policy rate unchanged at 6.50%. The consumer price index for the first half of May rose 4.11% year-on-year, showing a slowdown, and many in the market see no change in rates this year. Additionally, the Trump administration did not agree to extend the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which will remain in force for the next ten years, though this is subject to change if the three countries agree on amendments. Finance Minister Amador noted that the International Monetary Fund's downward revision of the 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% was due to a broader downgrade of global economic prospects rather than domestic factors, and argued that the 2025 outcome was close to the government's forecast.
Banxico ends rate-cutting cycle, keeps rate at 6.50%, supporting MXN; US data weakens USD slightly but MXN steady.
US employment data below expectations pushes back Fed rate cut outlook, supporting USD; no direct yen catalyst.