MFC flags high volatility in global equities for Q4 2026, favours Japanese stocks, recommends 5-10% gold allocation

HoonSmart··USJP·Read original
3▲1 ▼1Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

MFC Asset Management has issued its investment outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026, saying global equity markets are likely to see high volatility amid uncertainty over the direction of US interest rates, energy prices and geopolitical risks. It recommends diversifying risk and gradually accumulating assets with strong fundamentals during market corrections. It highlights the Japanese stock market as the most attractive, with an Overweight weighting for both the short term of 0 to 3 months and the long term of 6 to 12 months, driven by demand for AI investment, corporate capital spending and capital market reform by the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The TOPIX index had a forward P/E of 16.17 times as of 25 September 2026. For the US, Chinese, Indian and Thai stock markets, MFC maintains a Neutral weighting for both the short and long term. The SET Index has a forward P/E of 13.79 times, about 0.8 standard deviations below its average, and foreign investors were net buyers of 25.11 billion baht between 1 January and 30 September 2026. For European equities, MFC assigns a Neutral weighting in the short term and an Underweight in the long term. For other assets, MFC recommends foreign bonds as a diversification tool and keeps a gold allocation of about 5 to 10% of the portfolio to hedge against volatility. Factors to watch next include the direction of US Federal Reserve policy after it raised rates by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, the US midterm elections on 3 November, and Brent crude oil prices, which remain above 100 dollars a barrel.

Impact on assets 3

Financials▲
Others± Mixed