Rheinmetall AGRHM
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Rheinmetall reported record profit and beat analyst expectations, driving shares up.
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Germany▼
Berenberg downgrades Rheinmetall to Hold, cuts price target to €1,020
Berenberg downgraded Rheinmetall to Hold from Buy and cut its price target to €1,020 from €1,600, sending the German defense company's shares down more than 1% Friday on uncertainty over medium-term growth. Analysts led by George McWhirter rebuilt their bottom-up model of 417 contracts and order opportunities, driving Berenberg's group revenue forecast to €37.6 billion in 2030 versus consensus of €41 billion, a 28% compound annual growth rate, and lowered its 2030 revenue and EPS estimates by 6% and 8%. Berenberg estimates 181 contract opportunities worth €410 billion and includes €201 billion in its forecasts, a 49% win rate, warning that significant additional contract awards beyond its pipeline are required for sustainable growth beyond 2030 as major European contracts reach a steady state. Near-term visibility is high with a backlog of about €80 billion, including €56 billion of firm orders, but revenue under contract falls to 29% in 2030, with the Weapons & Ammunition division the weakest at only 16% under contract, the lowest of the five divisions. Rheinmetall shares are down more than 50% from their 52-week high of €1,933.50, and the stock trades at 18.1 times 2027 earnings for a 30% EPS CAGR over 2028-30, which Berenberg said offers valuation support but may limit re-rating potential because visibility after 2030 is a core determinant of defense sector multiples.
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Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia ▼Demand
RHM.XETRA · Capital · Negative Berenberg downgraded Rheinmetall to Hold and cut its price target to €1,020 from €1,600 on uncertainty over medium-term growth.
Thailand3
EXIM BANK Joins Forces with DTI to Open Global Markets for Thai Defense Industry Capital
The Export-Import Bank of Thailand, or EXIM BANK, has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Defence Technology Institute, or DTI, to help Thai defense operators gain easier access to loans, guarantees, export insurance, and risk management tools, with the goal of moving research toward commercial production and export. The signing ceremony was held on October 9, 2026, with General Dr. Charat Uamsamrit, Director of the Defence Technology Institute, and Mr. Chalash Ratanaboonnithi, Managing Director of EXIM BANK, as signatories, while General Napon Sangsomwong, Chairman of the Defence Technology Institute, and Mr. Bandit Sapianchai, Chairman of the Executive Board of EXIM BANK, witnessed the event. Under this collaboration, EXIM BANK will combine its expertise in finance, international trade, investment, and risk management with DTI's expertise in technology and its network of operators to support entrepreneurs and projects with potential to develop production capacity, investment, and the extension of technology and innovation into commercial use, as well as to expand opportunities into overseas markets. DTI, meanwhile, will connect potential operators or projects to EXIM BANK's appropriate financial support mechanisms. This marks another important step in linking technology, capital, production, and markets to bring promising technologies and products from research and development into commercial production.
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Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia Capital
Export-Import Bank of Thailand · Demand · Positive EXIM BANK signs MOU with DTI to provide loans, guarantees and export insurance to Thai defense operators, expanding its trade-finance customer base.
Japan2
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Launches New Maritime Self-Defense Force Submarine Shogei, Scheduled for Commissioning in March 2028
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries held a naming and launching ceremony on the 8th at its Kobe Shipyard for the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's new submarine Shogei. It is the seventh vessel of the conventionally powered Taigei-class submarines and is scheduled to enter service in March 2028. It has a total length of 84 meters, a beam of about 9 meters, a standard displacement of 3,000 tons, a crew of about 70, and a construction cost of about 80.5 billion yen. According to the Maritime Self-Defense Force, it has improved detection capabilities and a structure that makes it difficult for underwater noise to leak, making it harder to detect from the outside. Shogei is written in kanji as "翔鯨," and Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi selected the name from candidates solicited from Maritime Self-Defense Force units and other sources.
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Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Naval Systems & Shipbuilding ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia Demand
7011.JP · Demand · Positive Mitsubishi Heavy Industries launched the new MSDF submarine Shogei, the seventh Taigei-class vessel, an order/contract for its defense shipbuilding business.
Japan▲impact 4
Kawasaki Heavy raises fiscal 2030 defense sales target to as much as 800 billion yen
Kawasaki Heavy Industries announced on the 6th that its defense business sales revenue for fiscal 2030 is expected to rise to between 700 billion and 800 billion yen. Its previous plan called for 500 billion to 700 billion yen, and the company says the government's increased defense spending will provide a tailwind. The company held a briefing that day on the progress of its management plan, which ends in fiscal 2030, and said that due to reforms to the contract system with the Ministry of Defense, the defense business's operating profit margin is expected to exceed 10 percent from fiscal 2027 onward. It also said that, in response to changes in the nature of warfare such as the spread of unmanned equipment and artificial intelligence, it aims to lift defense business sales revenue above 1 trillion yen by the mid-2030s.
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Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia ▲Demand
7012.JP · Demand · Positive Kawasaki Heavy raised its fiscal 2030 defense sales target to 700-800 billion yen, citing increased government defense spending as a tailwind.
Japan▲3
Mitsubishi Heavy to spend about 100 billion yen on Shimonoseki artificial island to expand shipbuilding capacity
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries announced on the 2nd that it has acquired an artificial island developed by Shimonoseki City, Yamaguchi Prefecture, as industrial promotion land. Amid rising global demand for ships and backing from the Japanese government from an economic security standpoint, its subsidiary Mitsubishi Shipbuilding will invest about 100 billion yen to expand shipbuilding capacity. It will transfer part of the functions of the Shimonoseki Shipyard's Enoura Plant and build a new hull block manufacturing plant to strengthen its production system. Of the investment, it will receive up to 40 billion yen in subsidies from the government. In September, the plan was certified by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism as a supply assurance plan for specified critical materials, namely ship components, under the Economic Security Promotion Act.
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Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Naval Systems & Shipbuilding ▲Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia ▲Supply
7011.JP · Capital · Positive Mitsubishi Heavy's subsidiary will invest about 100 billion yen (with up to 40 billion yen government subsidy) to build a new hull block plant and expand shipbuilding capacity.
7011.JP · Demand · Positive The expansion responds to rising global demand for ships, strengthening its production system to capture that demand.
France
India
Ukraine▲2
BofA Upgrades Dassault Aviation to Buy on Rafale Order Prospects
BofA Securities upgraded Dassault Aviation to buy from neutral and raised its price target to €360 from €345, citing the French fighter maker's long order book and potential new Rafale contracts. The target implies about 27% upside from the €284 share price cited in the report, and BofA noted the stock has fallen about 20% from its year-to-date high, creating a more attractive entry point. Dassault's Rafale backlog provides about 7.5 years of production visibility at current delivery rates, with further upside possible from India and Ukraine. India's proposed order for 114 Rafales could become a key catalyst in the fourth quarter and would be the largest export order in the aircraft's history, while Ukraine has expressed interest in acquiring up to 100 Rafales, initially ordering 16 aircraft under a July 2026 agreement with France with deliveries due to begin in 2028-29. Neither opportunity has yet become a firm contract, but BofA said that if both orders are secured, Dassault's backlog could exceed 400 aircraft, potentially extending production visibility to about 15 years at 2026 production rates. BofA also raised its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast to €16.40 from €16.30 and its 2028 forecast to €22.31 from €21.42, while cutting its 2027 estimate to €19.36 from €19.67.
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Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia ▲Demand
Aerospace & Aviation › Airframe OEMs Demand
AM.PA · Capital · Positive BofA upgraded Dassault to buy and raised its price target to €360 on Rafale order prospects and a long backlog