Shanghai Rubber Main Contract Hits Nine-Year High, Up Over 32% This Year

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Summary · why it matters

The main natural rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 20,645 yuan per tonne on October 9, up 2.89% on the day, with an intraday high of 20,775 yuan per tonne, marking a nine-year price high and a cumulative gain of more than 32% this year. Pan Shengjie, head of chemical research at Galaxy Futures, said the current strength is the combined result of weather expectations, reduced imports, higher synthetic rubber costs, spot prices following the rally, and a low warehouse receipt environment. The ANRPC's August report forecast global natural rubber production of 15.039 million tonnes in 2026 and consumption of 15.356 million tonnes, leaving a supply-demand gap of about 317,000 tonnes, compared with a gap of 77,000 tonnes forecast in the July report. Downstream tyre makers are under pressure. Sailun Tire, Linglong Tire and Triangle Tire all flagged the impact of rising raw material prices in their interim reports. Triangle Tire disclosed that its combined purchase prices for natural rubber, synthetic rubber, steel cord and carbon black rose 10.31% year on year and 13.36% quarter on quarter in the second quarter. Wei Yu, a senior analyst at CITIC Futures, noted that the three main raw materials for all-steel tyres account for about 70% of tyre production costs, and cost increases have continued to outpace selling prices, squeezing industry-wide gross margins. The market outlook remains bullish, but the margin for error has narrowed.

Impact on assets 4

Others▼
Triangle Tyre Co Ltd
601163
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

Triangle Tire disclosed combined raw material purchase prices rose 10.31% YoY and 13.36% QoQ, squeezing margins.

Sailun Jinyu Group Co Ltd
601058
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

Sailun Tire flagged the impact of rising raw material prices in its interim report as natural rubber costs surge.

Others▲
⛏Natural Rubber (RSS)
RUBBER
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Natural rubber hit a nine-year high on reduced imports, higher synthetic rubber costs, and a widening ANRPC supply-demand gap.