Sugar Prices Rally 13% in Six Weeks on Weather-Driven Shortage Fears

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Summary · why it matters

Sugar prices have rallied sharply as expectations of abundant supply gave way to weather-related shortage concerns, with the benchmark sugar tracking price up 13% over the last six weeks and 38% higher year-to-date, and New York's most-active raw-sugar futures reaching their highest level since December 2024 earlier this week. Excessive rainfall has slowed harvesting and cane crushing in Brazil, India's weakest monsoon since 2015 has cut projected output to approximately 30M tons, and European sugar-beet yields are forecast 11% below their five-year average. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a 200K-ton global deficit for the 2026-2027 sugar crop, compared with a 1.1M-ton surplus in 2025-26, and identifies El Niño as the strongest threat to its production forecasts in the coming months. Analysts have flagged Hershey, Mondelez International, Nestlé, Lindt & Sprüngli, Mars and Ferrero as among the food sector names most exposed to sugar prices, while Rogers Sugar, Associated British Foods and Coca-Cola FEMSA have mentioned sugar prices on recent earnings calls.

Impact on assets 8

Consumer Staples▼
Hershey Co
HSY
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

Flagged as among the food sector names most exposed to rising sugar prices, a key input cost.

Nestle S.A.
NESN
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

Flagged as among the food sector names most exposed to rising sugar prices.

Synthetic Biology (non-pharma)▼
Others▲

Off-coverage companies 3

Rogers Sugar Inc.i
Private▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

Rogers Sugar is among the names that mentioned sugar prices on recent earnings calls, and the weather-driven global sugar shortage and rally raise its input costs.

Ferreroi
Private± Mixedrelevance

Mars Incorporatedi
Private± Mixedrelevance