Susquehanna downgrades Greenbrier to Neutral on low railcar orders

Seeking Alpha··Read original
2▲0 ▼1Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

Susquehanna downgraded Greenbrier to Neutral from Positive with a $52 price target, citing the company's declining order backlog. Greenbrier shares fell 3.3% in Thursday's trading. Analyst Harrison Bauer noted the backlog is at its lowest level since 2010 at roughly 13,800 units after the lowest order total in nearly 10 years, which management attributed to broad-based capital investment hesitancy. Bauer said the backdrop is driving lower visibility into 2027 and that recovery may not materialize until the second half of 2027 even if orders start to improve. The analyst expects a stronger recovery later in 2027 or into 2028 rather than a near-term inflection, adding that rising backlogs historically support elevated early-cycle multiples but that confidence in improving backlog and orders is needed to underwrite a higher multiple.

Impact on assets 1

Industrials▼
Greenbrier Companies Inc
GBX
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

Downgrade due to declining order backlog and low railcar orders, indicating weak end-customer demand.