The Thai Bond Market Association, or ThaiBMA, reported that at the end of the third quarter of 2026 the outstanding value of the Thai bond market stood at 18.4 trillion baht, or 97% of gross domestic product, up 2.9% from the end of 2025, driven mainly by an increase in government bonds. Corporate bonds had an outstanding value of 4.5 trillion baht, down 0.7% from the end of 2025, with the property, banking and ICT sectors posting the largest declines. Long-term debenture issuance in the first nine months of 2026 totalled 629.662 billion baht, down 1.6% from the same period a year earlier, with the energy, finance and property sectors recording the three highest issuance volumes. On foreign fund flows, overseas investors sold Thai bonds on a net basis to the tune of 39.309 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, bringing net outflows over the first nine months to 9.21 billion baht, though foreign investors were still net buyers of long-term government bonds to the tune of about 25 billion baht, leaving their cumulative holdings of Thai bonds at the end of the third quarter of 2026 at roughly 910 billion baht, or 5% of the outstanding value of the Thai bond market. Yields on Thai government bonds with maturities of 2, 5 and 10 years rose from the end of 2025 by 26, 52 and 71 basis points to 1.39%, 1.80% and 2.37% respectively, while five-year debentures rated AAA, AA, A and BBB+ carried yields of 2.06%, 2.45%, 2.71% and 4.19% respectively. As for the outlook for the remainder of 2026, a survey of most market participants expects the Monetary Policy Committee to hold the policy rate at 1.00% for the rest of the year, and expects the yield on five-year Thai government bonds at the end of the fourth quarter of 2026 to move in a range of 1.77% to 1.86%, while the 10-year yield is expected to stay within a range of 2.33% to 2.47%.
ThaiBMA reports the 10-year Thai government bond yield climbed 71bp to 2.37% and the MPC is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.00%, keeping yields elevated.
The 5-year Thai government bond yield rose 52bp to 1.80% and is projected to stay in the 1.77%-1.86% range as the MPC holds rates at 1.00%.
