Yuanta Securities expects TIDLOR to post a net profit of 1.455 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 12.2% from the same period last year but down 9.8% from the previous quarter. The decline is due to an expected 39.1% increase in provisions from the prior quarter, implying a credit cost of 2.3%, up from 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. The first-quarter level was unusually low because the company had front-loaded excess provisions in the fourth quarter of 2025, leading to a slowdown in provisioning in the first quarter. In the second quarter, provisioning returns to a normal level. Asset quality remains manageable; although the NPL ratio may edge up slightly, the coverage ratio is expected to stay high at 326.2%. Positive factors are emerging from government economic stimulus measures. Non-interest income is forecast to drop 9.6% from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors, but net interest income is expected to grow 2.6% quarter-on-quarter, in line with total loan growth of 3% from the prior quarter and a net interest margin projected to rise to 16.1% from 15.9% in the first quarter. First-half net profit will account for 59% of the full-year estimate. Operating results are expected to pick up again in the third quarter, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by better loan growth and lower provisioning, supported by economic stimulus policies. In the fourth quarter, net profit is still expected to grow from the same period last year but decline from the third quarter, as the company typically books higher-than-normal technology investment expenses during that period. For full-year 2026, net profit is maintained at 5.176 billion baht, up 2% from the previous year, and is forecast to grow 7.6% in 2027. The current share price still offers 20.4% upside after rolling forward to a new 2027 fundamental value of 23 baht. The recommendation remains buy.
Ngern Tid Lor Public Company LimitedYuanta expects Q2 profit up 12.2% and maintains target with 20% upside.