Yuanta keeps Overweight on beverages, picks CBG as Top pick with 81 baht target

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Yuanta Securities maintains an Overweight rating on the beverage sector and has chosen CBG as its Top pick for the sector with a target price of 81.00 baht. It expects the sector's normalized profit in the third quarter of 2026 to decline from the previous quarter because it is the low season, but to grow year on year at a higher rate than in the second quarter of 2026, helped by a low base last year that was hit by the Thailand-Cambodia conflict and by US customers delaying orders while waiting for clarity on import tariffs, together with a recovery in consumer purchasing power from the Thai Help Thai Plus program, new product launches and distribution channel expansion, and efficient cost management. Yuanta expects the sector's normalized profit to return to growth both from the previous quarter and year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026, and expects sector profit in 2027 to continue growing to 10.413 billion baht, or an increase of 10.6% year on year, driven by hotter-than-normal weather from the influence of El Niño in the first half of 2027, and if a Super El Niño occurs it would be an upside to its estimates. As for flood risk, in a worst case it expects only a slight downside risk to its 2026 sector profit estimates of around 1-2%, and it would be a short-term effect, because the factories and production capacity of most companies have not been damaged. As for sugar prices, which have a chance of rising in 2027, it expects they can still be managed through product mix adjustments and promotional activities, while packaging costs tend to decline from last year's high base. For secondary picks, Yuanta chose RBF with a target price of 6.80 baht and ICHI with a target price of 16.90 baht for long-term dividend investment.

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