Yuanta rates CK a Buy with 27 baht target, eyes 770.9 billion baht in bids

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Yuanta Securities issued an analysis stating that Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, plans to bid on several government projects in 2026–27 with a combined value of as much as 770.9 billion baht. Of that total, the SRT High Speed Train Phase 2 project is worth 285.3 billion baht and the SRT Double Track: 6 Routes project is worth 237 billion baht. These two projects account for more than 68% of the total value of all projects the company currently plans to bid on. The SRT High Speed Train Phase 2 project covers six routes in total, of which the Cabinet has already approved three, worth more than 100 billion baht, with bidding expected to open in the first quarter of 2027, as is the case for the SRT Double Track: 6 Routes project. CK currently has a backlog as of the end of the second quarter of 2026 of 146.305 billion baht, supporting revenue for roughly four to five years, and the backlog is expected to reach a new peak in 2027. As for the normal profit trend in the second half of 2026, it is expected to continue growing half on half, driven by the profit share from CKP, which is entering its high season, and from BEM, which is expected to post a record-high profit in the third quarter of 2026. The gross profit margin is expected to hold at 7–8% thanks to forward locking of material prices; although oil prices have risen, the impact on cost of goods sold is less than 1%. Following the revision of estimates, normal profit for 2026 is raised 13% to 2.483 billion baht and for 2027 is raised 4% to 2.603 billion baht, lifting the fair value to 27.00 baht based on the sum-of-the-parts method, implying a 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times, below the 10-year historical average of 20 times. With the current share price offering upside gain of as much as 53%, the recommendation remains Buy.

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CH. Karnchang PCL
CK
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Yuanta rates CK a Buy with a 27 baht target, raises 2026-27 profit estimates, and cites a 770.9 billion baht bid pipeline and 146.3 billion baht backlog.

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