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Xiaomi vs Lithium Carbonate Futures (GFEX): why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

AI and EV gains offset by phone slump and memory shortage

  • AI and EV momentum Xiaomi's MiMo-V2.5 AI model ranked first globally, EV revenue topped 100 billion yuan, and the SU7, SkyNomad, and September deliveries impressed analysts.

    Highlights the key positive forces that drove Xiaomi's stock in Q3.

  • New product launches and supply deal Xiaomi unveiled the TSMC-made Xring O3 chip, launched the cheaper 18 Fold, and secured Sunwoda battery supply, strengthening its product lineup and supply chain.

    Shows new product and supply chain developments that supported the stock.

  • Memory-chip shortage hits phones A memory-chip shortage forced a 30% phone shipment-target cut, with China shipments down 21.7%; later Q2 shipments fell 26%, net profit dropped 42.6%, and new businesses lost 2.6 billion yuan.

    Explains the major negative force that pressured Xiaomi's stock.

  • US expansion dims and Apple threat US expansion hopes dimmed, and Apple's foldable iPhone Duo threatens Xiaomi's premium foldable share despite its price advantage.

    Points to external challenges that weighed on Xiaomi's outlook.

August 2026
▲2▼2

AI and EV strength offset smartphone slump and memory costs

  • MiMo-V2.5 AI model ranks first globally Xiaomi's MiMo-V2.5 AI model ranked first globally with 10.5 trillion weekly tokens, showing strong AI adoption that could open new revenue streams and support the stock.

    This is a new positive development in AI that was not in earlier reports.

  • EV momentum accelerates with strong sales and analyst praise Xiaomi's SU7 outsold Mercedes in China, SkyNomad got 70,000 first-month orders, and September deliveries topped 40,000. Citi issued a buy rating and UBS named Xiaomi a likely global EV winner.

    This shows new EV sales milestones and analyst validation not covered in earlier reports.

  • Memory costs crush smartphone profits Memory costs crushed smartphones: Q2 shipments fell 26%, net profit dropped 42.6%, and margins narrowed. New businesses lost 2.6 billion yuan, and Southeast Asia phone shipments slumped 23%.

    This provides new specific financial damage from memory costs and regional weakness.

  • US expansion hopes dim as Xiaomi may miss delegation Xiaomi may miss a US delegation, hurting US expansion hopes. This adds geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty to its growth plans.

    This is a new negative development regarding US market access not mentioned earlier.

Latest
▲3▼1

Xiaomi's EV order surge and analyst backing offset weak phone demand

  • SkyNomad EV orders hit 70,000, deliveries top 40,000 Xiaomi's new SkyNomad EV line took 70,000 orders in its first month, and September car deliveries passed 40,000, a 2026 best. Shares jumped 7.6% on the news. Strong end-customer demand for its cars is the clearest reason the stock is moving up.

    This is the single biggest new price driver in the period, showing real EV demand.

  • Citi buy rating on margin recovery and EV growth Citi issued a buy rating on Xiaomi, expecting smartphone profit margins to recover and the EV business to expand with new models. Analyst support like this can pull in buyers and support the share price even when the broader market is quiet.

    A fresh analyst upgrade is a direct, new reason investors are buying the stock.

  • UBS sees Xiaomi as global EV winner UBS named Xiaomi among Chinese carmakers most likely to become major players overseas, forecasting Chinese brands reach 37% global share by 2030. That supports Xiaomi's long-term growth story and makes its EV expansion look more credible to investors.

    It adds a new, longer-term demand case for Xiaomi's car business.

  • Southeast Asia phone slump and lost US trip Southeast Asia smartphone shipments fell 23% in the second quarter, the weakest since 2014, with Xiaomi hit despite higher selling prices. Separately, Xiaomi may miss a US corporate delegation, reducing hopes for expanded US business. Both weigh on the stock.

    These are the main new counterweights to the positive EV and analyst news.

September 2026
▲3▼1

Xiaomi's chip and foldable push sharpens its premium edge

  • Xiaomi unveils Xring O3 chip, taps TSMC for manufacturing Xiaomi introduced its self-developed Xring O3 chip, made by TSMC on 3-nanometer technology, plus two other chips for AI and autonomous driving. This reduces reliance on outside suppliers and strengthens Xiaomi's technology story, supporting the stock's long-term value.

    This is a new event that boosts Xiaomi's technology credentials and future pricing power.

  • Xiaomi 18 Fold undercuts Apple's iPhone Duo in China Xiaomi launched its 18 Fold at 10,999 yuan, well below Apple's 15,999-yuan iPhone Duo, and it goes on sale Thursday. The lower price and earlier launch position Xiaomi well in China's crowded foldable market, which can lift sales and market share.

    This new launch shows Xiaomi's competitive pricing and timing advantage against Apple.

  • Xiaomi partners with Sunwoda for EV batteries Xiaomi Auto announced a deep strategic partnership with Sunwoda, with its Pengcheng series to use Sunwoda batteries on a large scale. This secures battery supply for Xiaomi's growing EV business, supporting future deliveries and revenue.

    This new partnership helps secure a key component for Xiaomi's EV expansion.

  • Apple's foldable entry intensifies competition Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, entering a market where Huawei and Xiaomi already compete. While Xiaomi's 18 Fold is cheaper, Apple's brand and ecosystem could pressure Xiaomi's share of the premium foldable segment.

    This new competitive threat could cap Xiaomi's foldable market share gains.

▲3▼1

Xiaomi's chip and foldable push sharpens its premium edge

  • Xiaomi unveils Xring O3 chip, taps TSMC for manufacturing Xiaomi introduced its self-developed Xring O3 chip, made by TSMC on 3-nanometer technology, plus two other chips for AI and autonomous driving. This reduces reliance on outside suppliers and strengthens Xiaomi's technology story, supporting the stock's long-term value.

    This is a new event that boosts Xiaomi's technology credentials and future pricing power.

  • Xiaomi 18 Fold undercuts Apple's iPhone Duo in China Xiaomi launched its 18 Fold at 10,999 yuan, well below Apple's 15,999-yuan iPhone Duo, and it goes on sale Thursday. The lower price and earlier launch position Xiaomi well in China's crowded foldable market, which can lift sales and market share.

    This new launch shows Xiaomi's competitive pricing and timing advantage against Apple.

  • Xiaomi partners with Sunwoda for EV batteries Xiaomi Auto announced a deep strategic partnership with Sunwoda, with its Pengcheng series to use Sunwoda batteries on a large scale. This secures battery supply for Xiaomi's growing EV business, supporting future deliveries and revenue.

    This new partnership helps secure a key component for Xiaomi's EV expansion.

  • Apple's foldable entry intensifies competition Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, entering a market where Huawei and Xiaomi already compete. While Xiaomi's 18 Fold is cheaper, Apple's brand and ecosystem could pressure Xiaomi's share of the premium foldable segment.

    This new competitive threat could cap Xiaomi's foldable market share gains.

▲2▼2

Xiaomi's profit hit by memory costs, but EV and AI shine

  • Smartphone shipments plunge 26% on memory price surge Global smartphone shipments fell 6% in Q2 2026, and Xiaomi's shipments dropped 26% to 31.2 million units. High memory prices forced Xiaomi to prioritize margins over volume, hurting revenue and profit. This is a major headwind for the stock.

    This explains a key reason for Xiaomi's weak Q2 results and near-term pressure.

  • Xiaomi's AI model tops global usage rankings Xiaomi's MiMo-V2.5 AI model ranked first globally with 10.5 trillion tokens called in a week, up 12% week-on-week. This shows strong adoption of Xiaomi's AI technology, boosting its tech credentials and future monetization potential.

    Highlights Xiaomi's growing AI leadership, a positive long-term driver.

  • Xiaomi EV outsells Mercedes in China Xiaomi delivered over 80,000 SU7 sedans in China in H1 2026, while Mercedes sold only 1,153 cars. This stark contrast shows Xiaomi's strong EV demand and competitive edge in the premium segment.

    Demonstrates Xiaomi's EV success against legacy automakers, supporting growth narrative.

  • Q2 net profit falls 42.6%, missing forecasts Xiaomi's Q2 net profit dropped 42.6% to 6.2 billion yuan, below expectations, due to higher memory costs and competition. Smartphone revenue fell 7.5% and gross margin narrowed to 8.5%. EV revenue rose 15.9% but new businesses lost 2.6 billion yuan.

    This is the period's most important financial update, directly impacting investor sentiment.

July 2026
▲2▼1

Xiaomi cuts phone target on chip shortage, but EV and AI shine

  • Memory-chip shortage forces shipment cut A severe memory-chip shortage forced Xiaomi to cut its 2026 phone shipment target by 30%, with China shipments plunging 21.7% amid a shrinking global market and rising prices.

    This is a major negative event that directly impacted Xiaomi's core smartphone business and investor sentiment.

  • EV revenue surpasses 100 billion yuan Xiaomi's EV revenue surpassed 100 billion yuan for the first time, driven by the Sky Nomad SUV launch, marking a significant milestone in its automotive business.

    This is a new positive development showing strong growth in Xiaomi's EV segment, a key future driver.

  • India duty cuts and $6.5B incentive India's duty cuts and a $6.5 billion incentive package provided a boost to Xiaomi's prospects in the Indian market, potentially offsetting some negative trends.

    This is a new positive regulatory and financial incentive that could improve Xiaomi's competitive position in a key market.

  • Target raised to 110M on premium demand Xiaomi later raised its 2026 phone shipment target to 110 million units on stronger premium demand, but memory costs continue to pressure margins and EV/AI benefits remain long-term.

    This shows a partial recovery and positive demand signal, but with ongoing cost pressures and uncertain long-term benefits.

▲4

Xiaomi raises phone target, expands EV and AI footprint

  • Xiaomi raises 2026 phone target to 110M on strong demand Xiaomi lifted its 2026 smartphone delivery target from 90M to 110M units after better-than-expected first-half sales, especially in premium phones. This signals resilient demand and supports revenue and profit, though rising memory costs still pressure margins.

    This is the most direct and material new event for Xiaomi's core phone business, reversing earlier pessimism.

  • Xiaomi in talks for EV and smart home production in Thailand Xiaomi is considering an EV production base and R&D center in Thailand, and is also in talks to make smart home appliances there. This expands its manufacturing footprint, lowers costs, and opens new growth markets, though talks are early and benefits are long-term.

    It shows Xiaomi actively expanding global production, a key driver for future growth and cost competitiveness.

  • Xiaomi's open-weight AI model ranks top five in usage Xiaomi's open-weight AI model is among the top five on OpenRouter by token usage, showing strong adoption of cheaper Chinese AI alternatives. This boosts Xiaomi's tech credentials and could drive future monetization, though direct revenue impact is still unclear.

    It highlights Xiaomi's growing presence in AI, a potential new growth area that enhances its technology story.

  • Xiaomi EV revenue tops 100 billion yuan for first time Xiaomi's smart EV business exceeded 100 billion yuan in revenue for the first time, ranking fifth among Chinese automakers on the Fortune China 500 list. This confirms the EV segment is scaling rapidly, adding a major new revenue pillar beyond phones.

    It provides concrete evidence of Xiaomi's EV success, a key part of its long-term growth story.

▲2▼2

Memory shortage slashes Xiaomi's phone outlook, but EV and India offer hope

  • Memory shortage forces 30% cut to 2026 phone shipment target Xiaomi cut its 2026 shipment target to ~95 million units from 135 million because AI server demand is soaking up memory chip supply, making phones more expensive to build. This directly threatens phone revenue and profit, a core part of Xiaomi's business.

    This is the biggest new negative force on Xiaomi's core smartphone business.

  • China and global phone shipments slump, Xiaomi hit hardest China's Q2 smartphone shipments fell 4.3% and global shipments hit a 13-year low, down 11%. Xiaomi's China shipments plunged 21.7% as it raised prices due to memory costs, while Huawei and Apple held prices steady and gained share. This shows Xiaomi losing ground in a shrinking market.

    Confirms the demand damage and competitive losses from the memory crunch.

  • Xiaomi unveils Sky Nomad SUV, expanding EV lineup Xiaomi launched a new extended-range electric SUV series called Sky Nomad, moving beyond sedans into a popular category. The EV business is already a revenue pillar, and this expansion could drive future growth, though heavy investment still weighs on margins.

    A new growth driver that offsets some smartphone weakness.

  • India cuts import duties and launches $6.5 billion manufacturing incentive India removed import duties on smartphone parts and announced a $6.5 billion production incentive, lowering costs for Xiaomi's local manufacturing. This supports Xiaomi's cost competitiveness and supply chain in a key market, though the benefit is indirect and long-term.

    Policy tailwinds that improve Xiaomi's cost position in India.

Lithium Carbonate Futures (GFEX) (LITHIUM.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

Lithium swings on demand surge vs. supply ramp

  • Demand surge and low inventories From late July to October, lithium demand jumped 45% while inventories stayed near record lows. This tight balance pushed prices sharply higher, doubling from earlier levels to around 145,400 yuan per tonne.

    This is the main new bullish force that drove prices higher during the period.

  • US black-mass export ban tightens recycled supply The US banned exports of black mass, a recycled battery material that competes with mined lithium. This reduced a source of supply and helped push prices up, adding to the demand-driven rally.

    A new regulatory supply shock that contributed to higher prices.

  • Long-term GFEX-linked deals boost confidence Long-term contracts linked to GFEX prices increased, signaling that buyers and sellers expect stable or higher prices. This improved market sentiment and supported the price rebound during the quarter.

    A new confidence driver that helped lift prices.

  • Supply ramp and oversupply warning cap gains Albemarle, Sigma, Liontown and others ramped up output, and Albemarle warned oversupply remains the biggest risk. This rising supply likely capped further price upside despite strong demand.

    The main counterweight that limited the rally, giving a fair picture.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Lithium demand surges, but new supply caps price gains

  • Demand surge and low inventories Lithium demand jumped 45% and inventories are near record lows, while battery-material makers posted blowout profits. SQM raised its 2026 demand forecast above 2.1 million tonnes, signaling strong consumption.

    This explains the main bullish force behind the price rally.

  • Long-term deals and US export ban POSCO, Guocheng, and Bridge Green signed long-term deals tied to GFEX futures, boosting market confidence. The US black-mass export ban tightened recycled supply, adding upward pressure on prices.

    These new developments supported prices by locking in demand and restricting supply.

  • Prices doubled to 145,400 yuan/ton Lithium carbonate prices doubled to 145,400 yuan per tonne, reflecting the strong demand and tight near-term supply conditions.

    This is the key price outcome for the period.

  • New supply ramps and oversupply warning Albemarle, Elevra, ERAMET, Sigma, Sinomine, and Liontown are ramping or restarting output, and Shengxin plans African projects. Albemarle warns oversupply remains the biggest risk, which could cap futures upside.

    This is the main counterweight that could limit further price gains.

Latest
▲2▼1

Lithium demand recovery meets rising supply pipeline

  • Ganfeng swings to profit as lithium demand and prices recover Ganfeng Lithium expects first-half 2026 net profit of 3.65–4.6 billion yuan, reversing a year-ago loss. It credits surging global new energy demand, higher lithium salt selling prices, and growing energy storage demand. This is direct evidence that demand is strong and prices are recovering, supporting higher lithium carbonate futures.

    It is the clearest sign that real demand and prices are recovering, the core bullish force for lithium carbonate.

  • Idled and new supply returns, capping price upside Sinomine restarted its 30,000-tonne lithium salt line on August 10, with a second 35,000-tonne line due mid-August. Elevra's Quebec study outlines nearly doubling spodumene output, and Liontown approved its Kathleen Valley expansion. More supply coming back and being built works against higher prices.

    It is the main counterweight: rising supply from restarts and expansions limits how far prices can rise.

  • New long-term demand deals and projects build the demand story Bridge Green and Hartree signed an eight-year deal for about 10,000 tonnes a year of recycled lithium carbonate, worth up to $1bn, with first volumes in 2028. Equinor and Standard Lithium advanced a Texas project targeting large-scale battery-grade lithium carbonate. Both add future demand and supply, but the recycling deal signals new end-demand.

    It shows new, durable demand channels forming, reinforcing the bullish demand side of the picture.

▲2▼2

Lithium stays tight as demand booms, but new supply and China oversupply cap gains

  • Producers post big profits as demand outruns supply Shengxin Lithium swung to a 1.01 billion yuan first-half profit and Wanrun New Energy returned to profit with lithium iron phosphate shipments up 63%. Tianqi and Ganfeng posted their biggest profits in three years. Strong demand with supply lagging keeps lithium carbonate futures supported.

    Shows demand is genuinely strong and supply is not keeping up, the core force lifting prices.

  • Long-term supply deals priced off GFEX futures Guocheng Mining signed a ten-year contract to supply battery-grade lithium carbonate, with prices set from the average GFEX futures settlement price. More deals using the futures price as the benchmark tie real demand to the contract and support it.

    Directly links physical demand to the GFEX futures price, a structural support for the contract.

  • New African lithium sulfate projects add future supply Shengxin Lithium plans 75,000-tonne lithium sulfate projects in Zimbabwe and Nigeria, costing about $477 million combined. Lithium sulfate can be turned into lithium carbonate, so this adds supply down the road and can weigh on futures prices.

    New supply is the main counterweight to the tight-market story and can cap price gains.

  • Albemarle CEO change highlights China oversupply hangover Albemarle named BHP's Rag Udd as next CEO as it works through a pricing hangover from Chinese oversupply. Analysts cut its 2026 profit estimate, noting each $1/kg move in lithium prices shifts yearly profit by about $250 million. Oversupply risk still caps prices.

    Shows the biggest producer still sees oversupply as the main risk, a real drag on prices.

▲3▼1

Battery demand surges, but new supply and a Canadian review cloud the outlook

  • Battery material makers post blowout profits, confirming strong lithium demand Tianhua New Energy swung to a 2.29 billion yuan profit, Youngy's profit jumped over tenfold, and Xinzhoubang's profit doubled. All three credited booming demand for lithium batteries, especially for energy storage. Strong demand means buyers need more lithium carbonate, which supports higher futures prices.

    These earnings directly show demand for lithium carbonate is accelerating, a core force pushing prices up.

  • SQM sees record lithium sales and raises 2026 demand forecast SQM sold a record 84,000+ tonnes of lithium in Q2 and now expects global demand to exceed 2.1 million tonnes in 2026, up from 1.9 million. It also sees prices stable in Q3. This tells investors demand is stronger than thought, which supports lithium carbonate futures.

    A major producer raising its demand outlook is a powerful signal that the market is tighter than expected, lifting prices.

  • POSCO signs major LFP cathode deal, adding to long-term lithium demand POSCO will supply over 190,000 tonnes of LFP cathode materials from 2027-2032, targeting energy storage in North America. LFP cathodes use lithium carbonate. This new long-term demand source supports higher lithium prices over time.

    It shows a new, large, multi-year buyer of lithium-based materials, reinforcing the demand-driven price story.

  • Albemarle returns to profit and ramps up lithium output Albemarle swung to a $480 million profit and guided for 225,000-235,000 tonnes of lithium output in 2026. While good for the company, it signals more supply coming, and Albemarle itself warns that oversupply and low prices remain the biggest risk. More supply can weigh on futures.

    It is the main counterweight: rising supply from a top producer could cap price gains.

▲3▼1

Lithium demand booms, but new supply and US export ban reshape market

  • Global lithium demand surges 45%, inventories near record lows Albemarle reported Q2 EBITDA more than doubled to $858 million, with global lithium demand up 45% year-over-year through May. Inventories are at near-record lows, meaning buyers are snapping up supply quickly. This tight market supports higher lithium carbonate futures prices.

    Directly shows demand is outpacing supply, a core force pushing prices up.

  • US bans black mass exports, tightening recycled lithium supply The US will ban exports of black mass, a recycled battery material, for one year starting late August. This removes a source of lithium from the global market, especially for China. Less supply available pushes lithium carbonate prices higher.

    A new regulatory move that directly reduces global lithium supply, supporting prices.

  • Major producers ramp up output, adding future supply Elevra, ERAMET, Tibet Mining, and Sigma Lithium all reported higher production or expansion plans. Elevra hit a monthly record and secured financing; Sigma plans to expand to 330,000 tons by 2027. More supply coming online could eventually weigh on prices.

    Shows the supply side is responding, a real counterweight to the demand-driven price rise.

  • Battery material prices double on shortages, 30 billion yuan expansion Lithium carbonate prices doubled to 145,400 yuan per ton due to supply shortages. Companies like Ronbay and Tinci are investing 30 billion yuan in new projects, but near-term shortages keep prices elevated. This directly reflects tight conditions boosting futures.

    Confirms current supply shortage is driving prices up, a key price driver.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Lithium swings on mine restarts vs. strong battery demand

  • Supply loosens as mines restart and expand CATL's Jiangxi mine neared restart, while SQM-Codelco and Sigma planned large output increases. This extra supply weighed on prices early in July, pushing them lower before a later recovery.

    This is the main new bearish force that drove early-July price weakness.

  • Strong battery and storage demand lifts prices Robust demand from batteries and energy storage, plus surging profits at Chinese producers Tianqi and Ganfeng, helped prices recover. Futures jumped 3.58% to 146,500 yuan per tonne.

    This is the key new bullish force that drove the mid-July rebound.

  • China's renewable energy plan boosts long-term demand China's new renewable energy plan raised expectations for future lithium demand, giving the market a longer-term reason to expect higher prices even as near-term supply worries persisted.

    This is a new policy-driven demand signal that supported prices.

  • New projects and battery faults weigh on prices Hunan Yuneng's 24-billion-yuan project adds future supply, CALB battery faults could weaken second-tier demand, and ongoing mine restarts and expansions keep pressure on prices.

    These are new counterweights that could limit further price gains.

▲3▼1

Lithium prices rebound on strong battery demand and supply concerns

  • Battery makers post strong earnings, signaling robust lithium demand EVE Energy and Zhenyu Technology forecast big profit jumps for H1 2026, driven by strong demand for lithium batteries, especially energy storage. This confirms healthy demand, which supports higher lithium carbonate prices.

    Shows demand strength that underpins lithium prices.

  • CALB battery faults raise quality concerns, may hit second-tier demand Battery faults in CALB cells have sparked safety worries and regulatory scrutiny. If automakers shift to top-tier suppliers, demand from second-tier makers could fall, weighing on lithium carbonate prices.

    Introduces a potential negative demand factor.

  • Lithium price rebound lifts mining stocks; futures jump 3.58% Lithium carbonate futures rose 3.58% to 146,500 yuan/tonne as mining stocks surged. Ganfeng Lithium's profit soared 787-966%, and CATL's Yajiang mine moved closer to production, but the immediate focus is on price recovery.

    Directly reports the price move and market sentiment.

  • Renewable energy plan boosts long-term lithium demand outlook China's new renewable energy plan targets over 5 trillion yuan investment, with massive wind and solar capacity additions. This will require huge energy storage, driving lithium demand and supporting higher prices.

    Highlights a major demand driver for lithium.

▲3▼1

Lithium producers swing to big profits as prices recover; new supply plans loom

  • Chinese lithium producers swing to profit as prices recover Tibet Mineral Development and Tianqi Lithium both forecast a return to profit for the first half of 2026, crediting much higher lithium salt prices and strong downstream demand. This confirms the price recovery is real and supports higher lithium carbonate futures.

    Shows the price recovery is translating into real profits, reinforcing demand-driven support for futures.

  • Yongxing Materials plans Hong Kong listing on strong lithium profits Yongxing Materials, a mica-based lithium producer, plans an H-share listing in Hong Kong after forecasting first-half profit up 137-187% on rising lithium salt prices and steady lithium carbonate output. More capital flowing into lithium production signals confidence and supports prices.

    Capital raising tied to strong lithium economics shows industry confidence, a positive signal for futures.

  • Cathode maker Hunan Yuneng raises prices on cost pressure Hunan Yuneng will raise all lithium iron phosphate prices by 2,000 yuan per tonne from August, citing surging raw material costs and full capacity. This shows upstream cost pressure passing downstream, pointing to higher lithium carbonate prices.

    Price hikes across the battery supply chain signal rising raw material costs, supporting lithium carbonate futures.

  • Hunan Yuneng plans 24 billion yuan integrated project adding future supply Hunan Yuneng plans a 24 billion yuan project in Guizhou including 800,000 tonnes of lithium iron phosphate and lithium carbonate processing, over five years. This adds significant future processing capacity, which could loosen supply and pressure lithium carbonate prices.

    Large new supply capacity, even if years away, weighs on the long-term price outlook for lithium carbonate.

▼2▲1

Lithium falls as new mine restarts and expansions outweigh strong battery demand

  • CATL's Jiangxi mine nears restart, adding major supply CATL's huge Jiangxi lithium mine is moving toward restarting. This would add a lot of new supply to the market, which pushes lithium carbonate prices down because there is more material available than before.

    A large new supply source directly pressures lithium prices lower.

  • SQM-Codelco and Sigma plan big output increases Chile's SQM-Codelco venture aims to boost production over 70% to 470,000 tons, and Sigma beat its Q2 guidance by 6%. More supply from major producers weighs on prices by loosening the market.

    Concrete expansion plans from top producers increase future supply, a key downward force.

  • Strong battery demand and profits support prices Energy storage awards jumped 124% in June, battery makers raised July output, and companies like Shengxin and Tinci reported huge profit gains. This shows healthy demand that supports higher lithium prices.

    Robust demand from batteries and storage is the main upward force on lithium prices.

  • New projects and expansions add future supply Eni invested $225M in a Chilean lithium project, and POSCO plans to produce 173,000 tons by 2033. These long-term supply additions could ease shortages, but their impact is years away, so the near-term effect is limited.

    Future supply growth is a counterweight to current demand strength, shaping the long-term price outlook.

Q2 2026
▲4

Lithium demand strengthens as supply plans shift, supporting prices

  • UBS: Demand Fears Overblown, Supply Constraint Real UBS says the recent price drop was due to data confusion, not weaker demand. The real limit is spodumene feedstock, not total supply. Battery output is growing faster than EV sales thanks to storage and exports. This supports higher lithium prices.

    Directly addresses why the price fell and argues it should rise, a key driver for the period.

  • Albemarle: Lithium Prices Rebound on Restocking and Storage Demand Albemarle reported a 148% jump in EBITDA as lithium prices rebounded to around $23/kg from $10. Battery restocking and utility-scale storage demand are driving the recovery. Analysts forecast a 4% supply deficit in 2026, supporting higher prices.

    Shows concrete evidence of price recovery and demand growth, central to the price outlook.

  • Electricity Demand Surge Boosts Lithium Demand Global electricity demand is set to outpace GDP growth for the first time, driven by AI data centers and EVs. Lithium prices have soared roughly 150% as demand for energy transition metals rises. This trend supports higher lithium prices.

    Highlights a major new demand driver (AI/data centers) that lifts lithium demand and prices.

  • Project Cancellation Reduces Future Supply Tianci Materials will terminate a 243,000-ton lithium battery materials project due to oversupply and weak demand. This reduces future supply expectations, which supports lithium carbonate prices by tightening the market outlook.

    A supply-side event that directly lowers expected future supply, pushing prices up.

June 2026
▲4

Lithium demand strengthens as supply plans shift, supporting prices

  • UBS: Demand Fears Overblown, Supply Constraint Real UBS says the recent price drop was due to data confusion, not weaker demand. The real limit is spodumene feedstock, not total supply. Battery output is growing faster than EV sales thanks to storage and exports. This supports higher lithium prices.

    Directly addresses why the price fell and argues it should rise, a key driver for the period.

  • Albemarle: Lithium Prices Rebound on Restocking and Storage Demand Albemarle reported a 148% jump in EBITDA as lithium prices rebounded to around $23/kg from $10. Battery restocking and utility-scale storage demand are driving the recovery. Analysts forecast a 4% supply deficit in 2026, supporting higher prices.

    Shows concrete evidence of price recovery and demand growth, central to the price outlook.

  • Electricity Demand Surge Boosts Lithium Demand Global electricity demand is set to outpace GDP growth for the first time, driven by AI data centers and EVs. Lithium prices have soared roughly 150% as demand for energy transition metals rises. This trend supports higher lithium prices.

    Highlights a major new demand driver (AI/data centers) that lifts lithium demand and prices.

  • Project Cancellation Reduces Future Supply Tianci Materials will terminate a 243,000-ton lithium battery materials project due to oversupply and weak demand. This reduces future supply expectations, which supports lithium carbonate prices by tightening the market outlook.

    A supply-side event that directly lowers expected future supply, pushing prices up.

▲4

Lithium demand strengthens as supply plans shift, supporting prices

  • UBS: Demand Fears Overblown, Supply Constraint Real UBS says the recent price drop was due to data confusion, not weaker demand. The real limit is spodumene feedstock, not total supply. Battery output is growing faster than EV sales thanks to storage and exports. This supports higher lithium prices.

    Directly addresses why the price fell and argues it should rise, a key driver for the period.

  • Albemarle: Lithium Prices Rebound on Restocking and Storage Demand Albemarle reported a 148% jump in EBITDA as lithium prices rebounded to around $23/kg from $10. Battery restocking and utility-scale storage demand are driving the recovery. Analysts forecast a 4% supply deficit in 2026, supporting higher prices.

    Shows concrete evidence of price recovery and demand growth, central to the price outlook.

  • Electricity Demand Surge Boosts Lithium Demand Global electricity demand is set to outpace GDP growth for the first time, driven by AI data centers and EVs. Lithium prices have soared roughly 150% as demand for energy transition metals rises. This trend supports higher lithium prices.

    Highlights a major new demand driver (AI/data centers) that lifts lithium demand and prices.

  • Project Cancellation Reduces Future Supply Tianci Materials will terminate a 243,000-ton lithium battery materials project due to oversupply and weak demand. This reduces future supply expectations, which supports lithium carbonate prices by tightening the market outlook.

    A supply-side event that directly lowers expected future supply, pushing prices up.