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Mercuries & Associates vs Apollo Global Management LLC: why the prices moved differently

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Mercuries & Associates Holding Ltd (2905.TW)

Apollo Global Management LLC Class A (APO)

Latest
▲4

Apollo's AI financing boom and retail access drive growth

  • Apollo leads $40B SpaceX financing for Nvidia chips Apollo is leading a $40 billion fundraising for SpaceX to buy Nvidia chips, split into $10 billion bank loans and $30 billion investment-grade bonds. This large financing mandate boosts Apollo's fee income and cements its role in AI infrastructure, pushing the stock up.

    This is a major new deal that directly increases Apollo's capital deployment and fee revenue.

  • SEC opens private markets to retail investors The SEC approved rules allowing retail investors greater access to private markets and performance fees up to 20%. This expands Apollo's potential client base and fee structure, supporting long-term growth and lifting the stock.

    Regulatory change that expands Apollo's addressable market and fee potential.

  • Apollo extends daily pricing across $850B credit business Apollo is providing daily pricing to more investors across its $850 billion credit business, enhancing transparency. This move aims to attract more capital and improve investor confidence, which can support the stock by increasing assets under management.

    New initiative that improves transparency and could drive more inflows into Apollo's funds.

  • Redemption pressure eases at Apollo's private credit fund Redemption requests at Apollo's flagship private credit fund fell to 14.7% from 16.8%, signaling easing withdrawal pressure. This reduces concerns about liquidity strains and stabilizes Apollo's fee base, supporting the stock.

    Shows improvement in a previously negative trend, reducing a key risk for Apollo.

Q3 2026
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Apollo rides AI credit boom but redemption caps persist

  • Record AI credit deal and consortium membership Apollo closed a record $35B AI credit deal for Broadcom and Anthropic and joined Nvidia's $500B AI infrastructure consortium, boosting its private credit leadership and future fee income.

    This is a major new deal that showcases Apollo's ability to deploy large sums and reinforces its growth in AI-related private credit.

  • Record Q2 earnings and massive fundraising Apollo reported record Q2 adjusted net income of $1.3B and raised $60B, reflecting strong demand for its strategies and robust earnings power.

    These results demonstrate Apollo's financial strength and ability to attract investor capital, key drivers of stock performance.

  • Diverse deal deployment and retail access expansion Apollo deployed over $60B across deals including ONEOK, Bayer, Paramount-Warner Bros., and a near-16% New York Yankees stake, while SEC rule changes widened retail access to private credit.

    This shows Apollo's broad investment activity and a regulatory tailwind that could expand its investor base.

  • Persistent redemption caps and emerging risks Apollo capped redemptions on its $25–26B private credit fund for a third straight quarter amid liquidity strain, while AI bubble risk, asset-liability mismatches, easyJet downgrade risk, and a data breach weighed on confidence.

    These issues highlight ongoing challenges that could pressure Apollo's stock and fundraising efforts.

September 2026
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Apollo deploys $60B+ in deals but faces private credit redemption strain

  • Massive capital deployment across diverse deals Apollo invested in a $9B ONEOK deal, a €3B Bayer capital solution, a $49B Paramount-Warner Bros. debt package, and neared a 16% New York Yankees stake. It also exited Kelvion for $4.1B and grew its SoftBank loan to $9B.

    This shows Apollo's strong deal-making and capital deployment, a key driver of fee generation and growth.

  • SEC rule widens retail investor access The SEC's new retail private-markets rule allows Apollo to offer private credit and other alternative investments to a broader base of individual investors, potentially increasing assets under management and fee income.

    This regulatory change expands Apollo's addressable market and supports future growth.

  • Redemption caps on $26B private credit fund Apollo limited withdrawals from its $26B private credit fund for a third straight quarter due to liquidity strain. Although pressure eased slightly later, the caps highlight ongoing challenges in private credit.

    This signals liquidity issues that could undermine investor confidence and Apollo's reputation.

  • Warnings on hyperscaler credit risk and loan scrutiny Apollo's chief economist warned of rising credit risk among hyperscalers, and loan scrutiny tied to Market Financial Solutions' collapse raised concerns about Apollo's underwriting and execution.

    These warnings and scrutiny could lead to losses and reputational damage, weighing on the stock.

▲2▼1

Apollo's big deals grow, but private credit redemptions and loan scrutiny weigh

  • Apollo caps private credit fund redemptions again For a third straight quarter, Apollo limited withdrawals from its $26 billion private credit fund to 5% after investors asked to pull out 14.7% of shares. That signals real liquidity strain and worries clients, which pressures the stock even though most requests were old, unfilled ones.

    This is the clearest new negative force on APO, showing stress in its core private credit business.

  • Apollo nears 16% Yankees stake at $12B+ valuation Apollo is closing a 16% stake in the New York Yankees through a $2.6 billion credit-and-equity financing, its largest US sports investment. It puts capital to work in a rare, high-profile asset and should generate steady fees, though the record price and lack of control are risks.

    This is a new, large capital deployment that supports Apollo's growth story and fee income.

  • Apollo leads $49B debt package for Paramount-Warner Bros. deal Apollo helped underwrite and is leading a $49 billion debt sale backing Paramount's takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, one of the largest buyout financings ever. That brings big fees and cements Apollo's role in complex media deals, though it also adds credit exposure if the merger stumbles.

    This new financing win shows Apollo's scale and deal flow, a positive for earnings and reputation.

  • Apollo in talks for $20B J&J orthopedics unit; loan scrutiny emerges Apollo is negotiating to buy J&J's DePuy Synthes for close to $20 billion, which would deploy huge capital into a steady healthcare business. But scrutiny over loans tied to Market Financial Solutions' collapse raises questions about Apollo's internal execution and credit risk, a real counterweight.

    This combines a major new growth opportunity with a fresh risk that could cap the stock's upside.

▲3

Apollo expands AI and private credit deals, but flags rising cloud debt risk

  • Apollo in talks for $20B J&J orthopedics unit Apollo is negotiating to buy Johnson & Johnson's DePuy Synthes orthopedics business for about $20 billion. A deal would deploy huge capital into a steady healthcare business and generate long-term fees, supporting the stock, though talks could still fall apart.

    This is a major new deal that shows Apollo's ability to put large capital to work and earn fees.

  • Apollo leads €3B Bayer capital solution Apollo-managed funds closed a €3 billion capital solution for Bayer, with KKR as a minority partner. Apollo originated and led the deal, reinforcing its private credit leadership and commitment to deploy over $100 billion in Germany, which supports future earnings.

    This is a new, completed deal that demonstrates Apollo's deal-making and capital deployment.

  • Apollo expands SoftBank Vision Fund 2 loan to $9B Apollo is in talks to increase its loan to SoftBank's Vision Fund 2 from $5.4 billion to $9 billion, backed by fund assets. This grows Apollo's financing business and ties it to AI bets, boosting fee income and market position.

    This is a new financing deal that expands Apollo's loan book and AI exposure.

  • Apollo warns hyperscaler credit risk rising Apollo's chief economist warned that cloud giants' debt is getting riskier due to heavy AI spending, with leverage rising and cash flow negative. This could hurt Apollo if AI projects fail, but it also positions Apollo as a cautious expert, potentially attracting clients.

    This is a new warning from Apollo itself that highlights a risk to its AI lending exposure, providing a counterweight.

▲3

Apollo deploys $9B into ONEOK, exits Kelvion in infrastructure push

  • Apollo invests $9B in ONEOK midstream deal Apollo funds made a $9 billion minority equity investment in ONEOK to help fund its $4.425 billion Brazos Midstream acquisition. The deal closed September 10. This puts a huge chunk of Apollo's capital to work in stable, cash-generating energy infrastructure, supporting future fee and investment income.

    This is the period's largest new capital deployment and directly affects Apollo's earnings outlook.

  • Apollo sells Kelvion to SLB for $4.1B Apollo agreed to sell Kelvion, a data-center cooling company, to SLB for about $4.1 billion. This is a successful exit that returns cash to Apollo's funds and proves its ability to buy, improve, and sell companies at a profit, which supports the stock.

    A major portfolio exit that realizes value and validates Apollo's private equity strategy.

  • ONEOK debt overhaul with Apollo backing ONEOK launched a $5 billion debt repayment plan alongside Apollo's investment, including a $2 billion tender offer. Apollo's involvement helps ONEOK cut debt and improve its financial strength, which protects Apollo's investment and supports steady returns.

    Shows Apollo's capital is being used to strengthen a partner's balance sheet, reducing risk to Apollo's investment.

August 2026
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Apollo rides AI boom but faces private credit and legal risks

  • AI infrastructure consortium and record Q2 results Apollo joined Nvidia's $500B AI infrastructure consortium and reported record Q2 results: $1.3B adjusted net income, $60B raised, and $74B originated. This shows strong demand for Apollo's capital and fee generation.

    This point highlights the main positive forces driving Apollo's stock in August 2026.

  • Regulatory easing and new investments The SEC eased data-center debt rules, and Apollo invested in Atlantic Aviation and a pipeline joint venture. These moves expand Apollo's infrastructure and aviation exposure, supporting future growth.

    This point shows additional positive developments that supported Apollo's price.

  • AI bubble risk and asset-liability mismatch The Nvidia plan is non-binding, and AI chips depreciate in 3–5 years versus 30–50-year loans. An analyst warns AI bubble risk has shifted to private credit, raising concerns about Apollo's exposure.

    This point captures a key risk that could weigh on Apollo's stock.

  • EasyJet downgrade and data breach Moody's may downgrade easyJet's debt after Apollo's takeover, and a July data breach exposed client Social Security numbers. These create legal, financial, and reputational risks for Apollo.

    This point highlights negative events that could pressure Apollo's stock.

▲3▼1

Apollo expands AI and infrastructure deals, but data breach raises risks

  • Client data breach disclosed Apollo revealed hackers accessed cloud platforms in July, stealing personal data like Social Security numbers. This creates legal, operational, and reputational risks that could weigh on the stock as investors assess potential fines and client fallout.

    This is a new negative event that directly affects Apollo's risk profile and could pressure the stock.

  • Apollo joins Nvidia's $500B AI financing platform Apollo is one of six partners in Nvidia's new platform to raise over $500 billion for AI infrastructure. This gives Apollo a huge pipeline of deals to lend against and earn fees from, supporting future earnings and its private credit leadership.

    This is a major new partnership that expands Apollo's deal flow and reinforces its AI lending strategy.

  • Apollo invests in Atlantic Aviation and pipeline JV Apollo-managed funds acquired a significant stake in Atlantic Aviation, valuing it near $10 billion, and joined a Canadian pipeline joint venture. These deals deploy capital into stable infrastructure, potentially generating steady returns and fees.

    These new investments show Apollo putting capital to work in long-term assets, which supports earnings growth.

  • Broadcom nears $70B AI chip financing, Apollo may join Broadcom is in talks to raise $70–80 billion in debt for AI chips, with Apollo among potential participants. This extends their partnership and could generate significant fee income, though the huge scale carries risk if AI demand slows.

    This is a new development that could lead to more fees for Apollo and deepen its AI lending role.

▲3▼1

Apollo's AI lending boom grows, but easyJet downgrade and bubble risk loom

  • Record Q2 earnings and huge deal pipeline Apollo reported record second-quarter results: fee earnings of $785 million, spread earnings of $877 million, and total adjusted net income of $1.3 billion. It raised a record $60 billion from investors and originated $74 billion of loans. This shows the core business is firing on all cylinders, which supports the stock.

    This is the clearest new evidence that Apollo's core business is performing strongly, directly supporting its value.

  • SEC clears path for more AI data-center lending The SEC said data-center debt does not need the same risk-retention rules as mortgages, making it easier to package and sell these loans. Apollo is part of Nvidia's $500 billion AI infrastructure push, so this opens the door to more deals and fees for Apollo.

    This regulatory change directly boosts the AI financing pipeline that Apollo is a key player in.

  • Broadcom seeks up to $100 billion for AI chips, Apollo in talks Broadcom is negotiating over $60 billion in debt, possibly up to $100 billion, to fund AI chips for Anthropic and others. Apollo is in discussions to join, building on its June partnership. More deals mean more fees and cement Apollo's role in AI infrastructure lending.

    This is a new, concrete deal that expands Apollo's AI financing footprint and potential earnings.

  • EasyJet downgrade and AI bubble risk in private credit Moody's may cut easyJet's debt to junk after Apollo's takeover, raising borrowing costs and uncertainty. Separately, an analyst warns AI bubble risk has shifted to private credit and insurers, where Apollo is a major player. If AI projects fail, loan losses could hit Apollo's funds and reputation.

    These are the main counterweights: a specific credit downgrade and a broad warning about Apollo's core private credit exposure.

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Apollo joins Nvidia's $500B AI financing push, deepening private credit role

  • Apollo joins Nvidia's $500B AI infrastructure financing consortium Apollo is one of six financial firms partnering with Nvidia to mobilize over $500 billion for AI data centers and power. This gives Apollo a huge pipeline of deals to lend against and earn fees from, supporting future earnings and its private credit leadership.

    This is the biggest new event of the period and directly expands Apollo's core lending business.

  • Apollo's AI financing role deepens with Broadcom and Anthropic Apollo led a $35 billion financing for Broadcom's AI platform, and analysts now see that vehicle potentially reaching $370 billion in debt by 2029. More deals mean more fees and cement Apollo's position in AI infrastructure lending, though the huge scale raises questions about risk if AI demand slows.

    Shows the concrete scale of Apollo's AI credit business and its growth potential.

  • Apollo opens Austin innovation hub Apollo announced a new innovation hub in Austin, Texas, to expand its presence in a major tech and industrial center. This helps attract talent and local deal flow, supporting long-term growth in its asset management and retirement services businesses.

    A new expansion move that broadens Apollo's reach and talent base.

  • AI financing boom carries structural risks The $500 billion Nvidia plan is non-binding and multiyear, and there's a mismatch: AI chips become obsolete in 3-5 years while infrastructure loans often run 30-50 years. If AI projects underperform, Apollo could face credit losses, but the opportunity is still large.

    Provides a fair counterweight by highlighting real risks in the AI lending boom.

July 2026
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Apollo's record AI deal and easyJet win offset by redemption caps

  • Record $35B AI credit deal Apollo arranged a record $35 billion private credit deal for Broadcom and Anthropic, deploying huge capital and generating fees. This reinforces Apollo's leadership in private credit and supports future earnings.

    It is a major new deal that showcases Apollo's ability to deploy capital and drive earnings.

  • Won £5.7B easyJet takeover bid Apollo won its £5.7 billion takeover bid for easyJet, expanding its portfolio into airlines. This deploys capital and could generate fees, but airline exposure and EU regulatory scrutiny add uncertainty.

    It is a significant new acquisition that broadens Apollo's investments and potential returns.

  • Expanded private credit access Apollo expanded private credit into 401(k) plans and Revolut's European platform, and acquired Maverick Water Group while eyeing Rio Tinto infrastructure assets. These moves broaden investor access and deploy capital.

    It shows Apollo's efforts to tap new distribution channels and grow assets under management.

  • Second straight redemption cap Apollo capped withdrawals from its $25 billion private credit fund for a second straight quarter after redemption requests hit about 17%. This hurts confidence and could slow future fundraising.

    It is a recurring negative event that pressures Apollo's stock and investor trust.

▲3▼1

Apollo wins easyJet, expands private credit reach, faces cyber threat

  • EasyJet takeover agreed Apollo agreed to buy easyJet for £5.7 billion, with the board recommending the all-cash offer and the founder's family backing it. This deploys a large amount of capital and could generate strong returns, though airline risks and EU regulatory scrutiny remain.

    This is a major new deal that directly affects Apollo's capital deployment and potential earnings.

  • Private credit distribution expands Apollo's private market funds are now available on Revolut's platform in Europe, and Apollo is applying new ICE identifiers to its private credit assets. These moves broaden access to individual investors and improve data infrastructure, supporting long-term demand for Apollo's funds.

    These new distribution and infrastructure initiatives expand Apollo's reach and could attract more investor money.

  • Infrastructure acquisition and asset interest Apollo acquired Maverick Water Group, expanding its infrastructure portfolio, and is reportedly interested in Rio Tinto's $2-3 billion infrastructure assets. These deals put Apollo's capital to work in stable, long-term assets, potentially generating steady returns.

    New investments show Apollo's continued deal-making and capital deployment in infrastructure.

  • Ransomware attacks target Apollo Apollo was named as a target in a wave of ransomware attacks on major US financial firms. While no breach is confirmed, the threat poses a cybersecurity risk that could disrupt operations and damage reputation if successful.

    This is a new risk factor that could negatively impact Apollo's operations and investor confidence.

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Apollo's deal spree and 401(k) opening offset private credit redemption caps

  • Redemption caps hit again Apollo capped withdrawals from its $25B private credit fund for a second straight quarter after investors asked to pull out nearly 17% of shares. The cap means some can't get their money back, hurting confidence and possibly slowing future fundraising.

    This is the main risk weighing on Apollo's stock and shows the private credit stress is ongoing.

  • Record $35B AI credit deal Apollo arranged a record $35 billion private-credit financing for Broadcom and Anthropic, the only lender able to commit the full amount. This shows Apollo's huge lending power and generates fees, supporting earnings and its leadership in private credit.

    This is a major new deal that highlights Apollo's ability to win large, profitable financings.

  • EasyJet takeover bid Apollo made a surprise £5.7 billion counterbid for UK airline easyJet, topping a rival offer. If completed, it would deploy a large amount of capital and could earn strong returns, though airlines are risky and face regulatory hurdles.

    This is a significant new M&A move that shows Apollo's aggressive capital deployment.

  • Private credit enters 401(k) plans Private credit is coming to 401(k) retirement plans, opening a huge new market for Apollo. With over $1 trillion in assets and its Athene retirement arm, Apollo is well-positioned to attract retirement savings, boosting long-term demand for its funds.

    This new growth avenue could bring in significant new investor money over time.

Q2 2026
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Apollo's private credit boom meets redemption stress

  • Apollo closes $35B Anthropic private credit deal Apollo and Blackstone finalized a $35 billion private credit deal to finance Anthropic's data center expansion. This is one of the largest private credit deals ever, generating fee income and showcasing Apollo's ability to deploy huge sums. It supports future earnings and reinforces Apollo's leadership in private credit.

    This is a major new deal that directly boosts Apollo's fee income and market position.

  • Apollo leads Medallia recapitalization Apollo led a group of private credit lenders taking control of software company Medallia through a recapitalization. This lets Apollo deploy capital and gain ownership, potentially earning fees and equity returns. It shows Apollo's strength in private credit and its ability to take over companies when borrowers struggle.

    This new deal demonstrates Apollo's active role in private credit and potential for profit.

  • Morningstar model portfolios include Apollo strategies Morningstar Wealth is launching public/private model portfolios that include Apollo's private credit and real estate strategies. This expands distribution to financial advisors and their clients, potentially bringing more investor money into Apollo's funds. It supports long-term demand for Apollo's products.

    This new partnership opens a new distribution channel for Apollo's private market products.

  • Apollo caps redemptions on $26B private credit fund Apollo limited withdrawals from its $26 billion Apollo Debt Solutions fund after investors requested to pull out about 17% of shares. The cap means some investors can't get all their money back, signaling liquidity stress and hurting confidence. This could slow future fundraising and pressure Apollo's stock.

    This is a major new negative event showing stress in Apollo's retail private credit business.

June 2026
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Apollo's private credit boom meets redemption stress

  • Apollo closes $35B Anthropic private credit deal Apollo and Blackstone finalized a $35 billion private credit deal to finance Anthropic's data center expansion. This is one of the largest private credit deals ever, generating fee income and showcasing Apollo's ability to deploy huge sums. It supports future earnings and reinforces Apollo's leadership in private credit.

    This is a major new deal that directly boosts Apollo's fee income and market position.

  • Apollo leads Medallia recapitalization Apollo led a group of private credit lenders taking control of software company Medallia through a recapitalization. This lets Apollo deploy capital and gain ownership, potentially earning fees and equity returns. It shows Apollo's strength in private credit and its ability to take over companies when borrowers struggle.

    This new deal demonstrates Apollo's active role in private credit and potential for profit.

  • Morningstar model portfolios include Apollo strategies Morningstar Wealth is launching public/private model portfolios that include Apollo's private credit and real estate strategies. This expands distribution to financial advisors and their clients, potentially bringing more investor money into Apollo's funds. It supports long-term demand for Apollo's products.

    This new partnership opens a new distribution channel for Apollo's private market products.

  • Apollo caps redemptions on $26B private credit fund Apollo limited withdrawals from its $26 billion Apollo Debt Solutions fund after investors requested to pull out about 17% of shares. The cap means some investors can't get all their money back, signaling liquidity stress and hurting confidence. This could slow future fundraising and pressure Apollo's stock.

    This is a major new negative event showing stress in Apollo's retail private credit business.

▲3▼1

Apollo's private credit boom meets redemption stress

  • Apollo closes $35B Anthropic private credit deal Apollo and Blackstone finalized a $35 billion private credit deal to finance Anthropic's data center expansion. This is one of the largest private credit deals ever, generating fee income and showcasing Apollo's ability to deploy huge sums. It supports future earnings and reinforces Apollo's leadership in private credit.

    This is a major new deal that directly boosts Apollo's fee income and market position.

  • Apollo leads Medallia recapitalization Apollo led a group of private credit lenders taking control of software company Medallia through a recapitalization. This lets Apollo deploy capital and gain ownership, potentially earning fees and equity returns. It shows Apollo's strength in private credit and its ability to take over companies when borrowers struggle.

    This new deal demonstrates Apollo's active role in private credit and potential for profit.

  • Morningstar model portfolios include Apollo strategies Morningstar Wealth is launching public/private model portfolios that include Apollo's private credit and real estate strategies. This expands distribution to financial advisors and their clients, potentially bringing more investor money into Apollo's funds. It supports long-term demand for Apollo's products.

    This new partnership opens a new distribution channel for Apollo's private market products.

  • Apollo caps redemptions on $26B private credit fund Apollo limited withdrawals from its $26 billion Apollo Debt Solutions fund after investors requested to pull out about 17% of shares. The cap means some investors can't get all their money back, signaling liquidity stress and hurting confidence. This could slow future fundraising and pressure Apollo's stock.

    This is a major new negative event showing stress in Apollo's retail private credit business.