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Hainan Shennong Technology vs Rough Rice Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189.CS)

Rough Rice Futures (RICE.COMM)

Q3 2026
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Global Rice Glut Pressures Prices, Floods and Buying Provide Support

  • Global Supply Glut Japan's private rice inventories hit a record 1.5 million tons, 1.8 times last year's level, while retail prices fell for seven straight weeks below 3,000 yen and demand reached record lows. The 2026 crop sells about 30% cheaper.

    This is the main bearish force driving prices down.

  • Thai Export Drop Thailand's rice exports fell 17.1% as international buyers pulled back, adding to the global oversupply and weighing on prices.

    Shows weak global demand, a key negative driver.

  • Thai Floods and Japan Buying Thai floods damaged 1.5 million rai of rice fields, causing losses of about 12 billion baht. Japan is buying back 150,000 tons of reserve rice. These events tighten supply and support prices.

    These are the main bullish offsets to the glut.

  • Improved Sentiment and Tariff Hopes Thailand is seeking US tariff exemptions, and the rice outlook index rose to 28 from 18, signaling better market mood and potential trade relief.

    Sentiment and trade policy can influence prices positively.

August 2026
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Global Rice Glut Pressures Prices, Floods and Buying Provide Support

  • Global Supply Glut Japan's private rice inventories hit a record 1.5 million tons, 1.8 times last year's level, while retail prices fell for seven straight weeks below 3,000 yen and demand reached record lows. The 2026 crop sells about 30% cheaper.

    This is the main bearish force driving prices down.

  • Thai Export Drop Thailand's rice exports fell 17.1% as international buyers pulled back, adding to the global oversupply and weighing on prices.

    Shows weak global demand, a key negative driver.

  • Thai Floods and Japan Buying Thai floods damaged 1.5 million rai of rice fields, causing losses of about 12 billion baht. Japan is buying back 150,000 tons of reserve rice. These events tighten supply and support prices.

    These are the main bullish offsets to the glut.

  • Improved Sentiment and Tariff Hopes Thailand is seeking US tariff exemptions, and the rice outlook index rose to 28 from 18, signaling better market mood and potential trade relief.

    Sentiment and trade policy can influence prices positively.

Latest
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Rice glut keeps prices falling, but floods and buybacks slow the slide

  • Record rice glut keeps pushing prices down Japan's private rice stockpiles hit a record 1.5 million tons at end-August, about 1.8 times last year, with last year's crop still unsold. Retail prices fell for seven straight weeks to 2,926 yen per 5 kg, the first time under 3,000 yen in two years. Heavy supply pushes rough rice futures down.

    This is the dominant, persistent force this period: a record supply overhang driving prices lower.

  • Weak demand and cheap new crop add to the slump The 2026 new crop started selling about 30% cheaper than last year, and Japan's price outlook index hit a record low of 18 in July. Thai rice exports fell 17.1% as buyers like China and the Middle East cut back. Falling demand and fresh supply weigh on futures.

    Shows the demand side and new-crop supply reinforcing the price decline.

  • Thai floods and government buyback tighten supply Thai floods damaged 1.5 million rai of main-crop rice, with losses near 12 billion baht, and prices there are expected to run about 18% above last year. Japan's government is buying back 150,000 tons of reserve rice. Both remove rice from the market and support futures.

    This is the main counterweight: real supply losses and official buying that push prices up.

  • Bearish mood eases as weather and buybacks bite The September price outlook index rose to 28 from 18, up 10 points, as the government's buyback policy and poor September weather made traders less gloomy. Sentiment turning less bearish can support rough rice futures even while the big supply glut persists.

    Captures the shift in market mood that could slow or reverse the downtrend.

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Rice Prices Pressured by Oversupply, Tariff Hopes and Weather Risks

  • US Rice Acreage Plunges to 50-Year Low US planted rice acreage fell to the lowest in over 50 years, signaling a smaller future crop. That tightens supply and would normally push rough rice futures up, but the report frames it as part of a broader food-price squeeze that is curbing consumer spending.

    It is a major supply-side event that directly affects the future availability of rough rice.

  • Japanese Rice Prices Fall on Swollen Inventories Early-harvest rice payments in Japan dropped 2–45% year-on-year as private inventories ballooned far beyond normal. Supermarket rice prices also fell below 3,500 yen per 5 kg for the first time in 18 months, a clear sign of oversupply that weighs on global rice prices.

    It shows a concrete price decline in a major Asian market due to excess supply, a direct bearish force.

  • Record Low Japanese Demand and Record Inventories Japan’s domestic table rice demand hit a record low of 6.83 million tonnes, while private inventories swelled to a record 2.43 million tonnes. This surplus, driven by falling demand and rising imports, adds to global oversupply and pressures rough rice futures lower.

    It quantifies the demand slump and inventory glut that are key bearish drivers for rice prices.

  • Thailand Seeks US Tariff Exemption for Rice Thailand is pushing for US tariff exemptions on 13 products, including rice, under Section 301. If granted, it would lower costs for Thai rice exports to the US, potentially boosting demand and supporting rough rice futures prices.

    It is a new trade policy development that could increase export demand for rice.