← Rakuten Group overview

Rakuten Group vs SBI: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Rakuten Group, Inc. (4755.JP)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Rakuten swings to profit but loses KDDI roaming deal

  • First operating profit in seven years Rakuten posted a ¥50.4bn operating profit, its first in seven years, as shopping, financial services, and mobile losses improved. This shows the core business is finally turning around.

    This is a major positive event that directly boosts investor confidence and the stock price.

  • KDDI ends roaming deal KDDI ended its roaming deal with Rakuten, threatening network quality, customer losses, and costly catch-up spending. This is a significant blow to Rakuten's mobile business.

    This is a major negative event that could hurt future earnings and competitiveness.

  • Government satellite funding and AST partnership Japan granted up to ¥148bn for a domestic satellite network, reducing reliance on foreign services. A joint venture with AST SpaceMobile targets satellite-powered mobile service next year, adding a growth driver.

    This new funding and partnership open a new growth avenue and reduce dependency risks.

  • Warehouse writedown and regulatory friction A ¥17bn warehouse writedown pushed a quarterly net loss of ¥10.9bn. Regulatory friction also rose: scrutiny over furusato nozei fees and a forced reversal of its Rakuten ID contract policy.

    These negative items add financial and regulatory pressure, weighing on sentiment.

September 2026
▼3▲1

Rakuten's mobile network loses KDDI roaming as new bets and setbacks mix

  • KDDI roaming ends, network quality at risk KDDI is ending the roaming deal that let Rakuten Mobile borrow its network in cities from October. Rakuten's own 5G base stations lag rivals and its 2025 buildout fell far short of plan, so quality may drop, customers may leave, and catching up could mean costly new spending that revives losses.

    This is the biggest force on Rakuten's mobile unit, threatening subscribers and profitability.

  • 17 billion yen warehouse writedown deepens loss Rakuten wrote down 17 billion yen of warehouse leasing assets to zero and will use the space itself, pushing its second-quarter net result to a 10.9 billion yen loss. That is a direct hit to reported profit and shows the logistics side is not yet paying off.

    A concrete capital loss that directly reduces reported earnings and investor confidence.

  • Regulatory pushback on fees and ID policy Rakuten kept its furusato nozei fee while three rivals agreed to cut, drawing ministry scrutiny. Days later it scrapped a plan to auto-cancel mobile contracts without a Rakuten ID after the communications ministry intervened. Both show regulatory friction that can raise costs and hurt its public standing.

    Regulatory pressure on two key businesses is a real counterweight to the growth story.

  • New defense drone and Ferrari partnerships Rakuten will act as Japanese go-between for German drone maker Helsing's defense drones, a new revenue path beyond its inspection drone work. It also signed a global partnership with Ferrari starting 2027, extending the sports-sponsorship brand strategy. Both are early-stage and financial details are undisclosed.

    These are the period's main positive developments, showing new business and brand expansion.

Latest
▼3▲1

Rakuten's mobile network loses KDDI roaming as new bets and setbacks mix

  • KDDI roaming ends, network quality at risk KDDI is ending the roaming deal that let Rakuten Mobile borrow its network in cities from October. Rakuten's own 5G base stations lag rivals and its 2025 buildout fell far short of plan, so quality may drop, customers may leave, and catching up could mean costly new spending that revives losses.

    This is the biggest force on Rakuten's mobile unit, threatening subscribers and profitability.

  • 17 billion yen warehouse writedown deepens loss Rakuten wrote down 17 billion yen of warehouse leasing assets to zero and will use the space itself, pushing its second-quarter net result to a 10.9 billion yen loss. That is a direct hit to reported profit and shows the logistics side is not yet paying off.

    A concrete capital loss that directly reduces reported earnings and investor confidence.

  • Regulatory pushback on fees and ID policy Rakuten kept its furusato nozei fee while three rivals agreed to cut, drawing ministry scrutiny. Days later it scrapped a plan to auto-cancel mobile contracts without a Rakuten ID after the communications ministry intervened. Both show regulatory friction that can raise costs and hurt its public standing.

    Regulatory pressure on two key businesses is a real counterweight to the growth story.

  • New defense drone and Ferrari partnerships Rakuten will act as Japanese go-between for German drone maker Helsing's defense drones, a new revenue path beyond its inspection drone work. It also signed a global partnership with Ferrari starting 2027, extending the sports-sponsorship brand strategy. Both are early-stage and financial details are undisclosed.

    These are the period's main positive developments, showing new business and brand expansion.

July 2026
▲3▼1

Rakuten's satellite bet and first profit in seven years drive the story

  • Government grant for satellite network Japan will give Rakuten up to 148 billion yen to build a domestic satellite communications network, reducing reliance on foreign services like Starlink. This is a huge cash injection that lowers the cost and risk of a new growth business, supporting the share price.

    This is a major new capital boost that directly improves Rakuten's financial position and future prospects.

  • Joint venture with AST SpaceMobile Rakuten is forming a joint venture with AST SpaceMobile to offer satellite-powered mobile service in Japan, with coverage targeted for next year. This opens a new revenue stream and strengthens Rakuten Mobile's offering, which the market views as a positive growth driver.

    The JV is a concrete new business expansion that could add subscribers and revenue, directly impacting Rakuten's value.

  • First operating profit in seven years Rakuten reported a 50.4 billion yen operating profit for the June 2026 interim period, its first in seven years, as internet shopping and financial services grew strongly and mobile losses narrowed. This shows the core business is turning around, a key positive for the stock.

    Profitability is the most fundamental driver of share price, and this milestone signals a major improvement in Rakuten's financial health.

  • Mobile service disruptions after Kumamoto earthquake Rakuten Mobile's services were disrupted in Kumamoto after a powerful earthquake, with no timeline for restoration. While temporary, this highlights network vulnerability and could hurt customer trust and add costs, a modest negative for the stock.

    This is a new operational setback that could affect Rakuten Mobile's reputation and near-term performance.

▲3▼1

Rakuten's satellite bet and first profit in seven years drive the story

  • Government grant for satellite network Japan will give Rakuten up to 148 billion yen to build a domestic satellite communications network, reducing reliance on foreign services like Starlink. This is a huge cash injection that lowers the cost and risk of a new growth business, supporting the share price.

    This is a major new capital boost that directly improves Rakuten's financial position and future prospects.

  • Joint venture with AST SpaceMobile Rakuten is forming a joint venture with AST SpaceMobile to offer satellite-powered mobile service in Japan, with coverage targeted for next year. This opens a new revenue stream and strengthens Rakuten Mobile's offering, which the market views as a positive growth driver.

    The JV is a concrete new business expansion that could add subscribers and revenue, directly impacting Rakuten's value.

  • First operating profit in seven years Rakuten reported a 50.4 billion yen operating profit for the June 2026 interim period, its first in seven years, as internet shopping and financial services grew strongly and mobile losses narrowed. This shows the core business is turning around, a key positive for the stock.

    Profitability is the most fundamental driver of share price, and this milestone signals a major improvement in Rakuten's financial health.

  • Mobile service disruptions after Kumamoto earthquake Rakuten Mobile's services were disrupted in Kumamoto after a powerful earthquake, with no timeline for restoration. While temporary, this highlights network vulnerability and could hurt customer trust and add costs, a modest negative for the stock.

    This is a new operational setback that could affect Rakuten Mobile's reputation and near-term performance.

SBI Holdings Incorporated (8473.JP)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

SBI expands crypto and stablecoin push, but dividend cut weighs

  • Crypto and stablecoin expansion SBI invested ¥12bn in EDX Markets, reached 2 million SBI VC Trade accounts, acquired Coinhako and Bitbank, gained RLUSD approval, and became a Circle Arc validator. It also began yen-won stablecoin payment trials across 1.2 million Korean merchants.

    These concrete moves show SBI deepening its crypto and stablecoin footprint, a key growth driver.

  • Record earnings and Ripple stake SBI reported record quarterly earnings and its stake in Ripple reached ¥6.6 trillion. Stablecoin reserves now earn Japanese government bond income, adding a new revenue stream.

    Strong financial results and a valuable Ripple stake directly boost investor confidence and valuation.

  • New customer partnerships Partnerships with Minkabu, Livedoor, and JR Kyushu are feeding new customers into SBI's financial services, expanding its user base and cross-selling opportunities.

    These alliances drive customer growth, supporting future revenue and market position.

  • Dividend cut and execution risks The year-end dividend was cut to ¥75 per share (¥150 split-adjusted), disappointing income investors. Tokenization, on-chain trading, and AI remain experimental; the FOLIO IPO and EDX investment depend on market conditions, and crypto prices stay volatile.

    The dividend cut could pressure the share price, and experimental ventures carry execution risk.

August 2026
▲3▼1

SBI deepens stablecoin and tokenization push, but dividend cut disappoints

  • Stablecoin and tokenization expansion SBI gained approval to offer Ripple's RLUSD in Japan, became a founding validator on Circle's Arc blockchain, and advanced its Strium blockchain with a fiscal 2026 mainnet target, deepening its digital-asset strategy.

    This is a major new development in SBI's core crypto strategy that could drive future growth.

  • Record earnings and Ripple stake SBI posted record quarterly earnings and its Ripple stake reached ¥6.6 trillion, highlighting the value of its crypto investments and strong financial performance.

    Record earnings and a massive stake value are key positive financial drivers for the stock.

  • International and acquisition growth SBI invested about $270 million for 20% of Indonesia's Ajaib, expanded via Solana, formed payment joint ventures, and acquired Livedoor and Brangista, broadening its global footprint.

    These moves show SBI's active expansion into new markets and businesses, supporting long-term growth.

  • Dividend cut disappoints income investors SBI confirmed a year-end dividend of ¥75 per share, down from ¥140 pre-split, though split-adjusted it equals ¥150; this disappointed income investors and could pressure the share price.

    The dividend reduction is a negative factor that may weigh on investor sentiment and the stock price.

Latest
▲3▼1

SBI's crypto and media expansion drives growth, but dividend cut weighs

  • Record quarterly earnings and strong Ripple stake value SBI reported record-high revenue and profit for the April–June quarter, helped by buoyant markets. Its Ripple stake is valued at 6.6 trillion yen, showing confidence despite XRP's slowdown. These support the share price by confirming earnings power and hidden asset value.

    Directly shows financial strength and asset value that underpin the stock.

  • Crypto and stablecoin infrastructure push SBI partnered with Solana for stablecoins and tokenization, joined a stablecoin settlement pilot for digital securities, and formed a crypto payment joint venture with Money Forward and Mesh. These moves expand SBI's blockchain and payment businesses, supporting future growth.

    Shows new business initiatives that can drive future revenue and market position.

  • Media and consolidation deals add customers SBI will make Livedoor a wholly owned subsidiary for about 7.5 billion yen and is buying more Brangista shares through a subsidiary. These deals strengthen SBI's media and financial information platform, bringing in new customers and revenue streams.

    Highlights strategic acquisitions that broaden SBI's business and customer base.

  • Dividend cut disappoints income investors SBI confirmed a year-end dividend of ¥75 per share, down from ¥140 a year earlier after a two-for-one stock split. Although the split-adjusted payout is equivalent to ¥150 pre-split, the lower cash amount may disappoint income-focused investors and weigh on the share price.

    A real counterweight: lower dividend per share can pressure the stock, especially for income investors.

September 2026
▲4

SBI expands crypto and stablecoin reach with Bitbank buy and Korea payments push

  • Stablecoin reserves now earn bond income SBI started investing part of the yen stablecoin JPYSC's reserves in short-term Japanese government bonds, allowed under new rules. This lets the stablecoin business earn a return on reserves, making it more profitable and useful, which supports the share price.

    New regulation-driven revenue source for SBI's stablecoin business.

  • Japan-Korea stablecoin payments move toward real use SBI tested direct yen-won stablecoin exchange with Kyobo Life, then signed with two Korean firms to trial cross-border payments at 1.2 million Korean merchants. If commercialized, this opens a new payments business for SBI, lifting growth prospects.

    Shows SBI building a real cross-border stablecoin payments business.

  • Bitbank acquisition completed, crypto arm grows SBI finished buying crypto exchange Bitbank for 46.7 billion yen, making it a wholly owned subsidiary while keeping its CEO. This adds a large exchange to SBI's crypto business, increasing scale and earnings, though crypto prices remain volatile.

    Major completed acquisition that expands SBI's crypto exchange footprint.

  • New partners bring customers to SBI finance SBI will become Minkabu's second-largest shareholder and buy Livedoor, and JR Kyushu will launch a banking app using SBI Shinsei Bank and SBI Securities. These deals feed new customers into SBI's financial services, supporting future revenue.

    New distribution partnerships that widen SBI's customer reach.

▲4

SBI expands crypto and stablecoin reach with Bitbank buy and Korea payments push

  • Stablecoin reserves now earn bond income SBI started investing part of the yen stablecoin JPYSC's reserves in short-term Japanese government bonds, allowed under new rules. This lets the stablecoin business earn a return on reserves, making it more profitable and useful, which supports the share price.

    New regulation-driven revenue source for SBI's stablecoin business.

  • Japan-Korea stablecoin payments move toward real use SBI tested direct yen-won stablecoin exchange with Kyobo Life, then signed with two Korean firms to trial cross-border payments at 1.2 million Korean merchants. If commercialized, this opens a new payments business for SBI, lifting growth prospects.

    Shows SBI building a real cross-border stablecoin payments business.

  • Bitbank acquisition completed, crypto arm grows SBI finished buying crypto exchange Bitbank for 46.7 billion yen, making it a wholly owned subsidiary while keeping its CEO. This adds a large exchange to SBI's crypto business, increasing scale and earnings, though crypto prices remain volatile.

    Major completed acquisition that expands SBI's crypto exchange footprint.

  • New partners bring customers to SBI finance SBI will become Minkabu's second-largest shareholder and buy Livedoor, and JR Kyushu will launch a banking app using SBI Shinsei Bank and SBI Securities. These deals feed new customers into SBI's financial services, supporting future revenue.

    New distribution partnerships that widen SBI's customer reach.

▲4

SBI deepens stablecoin and tokenization push with new partners and a $270M Indonesia bet

  • Japan approves first foreign dollar stablecoin, offered via SBI Japan's regulator cleared Ripple's RLUSD, the first foreign-issued dollar stablecoin allowed in Japan, and SBI will offer it to institutions and individuals. This widens SBI's stablecoin product line and fee income, reinforcing its lead in regulated digital money.

    A new regulatory approval directly expands SBI's stablecoin business, a core growth driver.

  • SBI named founding validator on Circle's Arc blockchain SBI Group is among the founding validators securing Circle's Arc network, launching publicly in September alongside Visa, Mastercard and BlackRock. Being an early gatekeeper of a major payments chain gives SBI influence and new business in tokenized finance.

    It shows SBI gaining a strategic role in a major new financial blockchain, supporting its digital asset growth story.

  • SBI invests 43 billion yen for 20% of Indonesia's Ajaib SBI is paying about $270 million for a fifth of Ajaib, one of Indonesia's largest online investment platforms, making it an equity-method affiliate. The deal extends SBI's Southeast Asia digital-asset network and gives it a channel to push its yen stablecoin JPYSC.

    This is the period's largest capital commitment and a concrete step in SBI's stated Asia digital-economy strategy.

  • SBI's joint finance blockchain Strium sets launch timeline StarTail's CEO said the Strium testnet, built jointly with SBI, aims to launch this year with mainnet in fiscal 2026, supporting tokenized stocks, bonds and yen stablecoin payments. A concrete schedule turns a February announcement into a nearer-term product.

    It gives investors a timeline for a key SBI blockchain project, moving it from plan toward delivery.

July 2026
▲3

SBI expands crypto and digital assets, but payoffs remain distant

  • Crypto and digital-asset expansion SBI invested ¥12bn in US exchange EDX Markets, passed 2 million SBI VC Trade accounts, and acquired Singapore's Coinhako, widening its crypto footprint.

    This is the main new growth push behind the stock.

  • Tokenization and on-chain trading initiatives SBI co-led an Ethereum security-token test, partnered with Solana Foundation and Ondo Finance to tokenize Japanese stocks, and announced a 24/7 on-chain exchange with stablecoin support.

    These new projects show SBI's push into blockchain-based markets.

  • AI-driven trade execution pilot SBI piloted AI-driven trade execution, a new technology effort that could improve trading efficiency if it works.

    This is a new operational initiative that may support future growth.

  • Early-stage risks and FOLIO IPO plan SBI applied to list 69%-owned FOLIO Holdings, but tokenization, on-chain trading, and AI execution are experimental; the IPO and EDX investment depend on market conditions and may not add near-term earnings.

    This is the real counterweight: new plans are unproven and not yet profitable.

▲5

SBI accelerates on-chain finance push and plans to list FOLIO

  • SBI to build 24/7 on-chain exchange SBI plans a next-generation exchange with 24/7 trading, instant settlement, and stablecoin support. This positions SBI at the forefront of digital finance, potentially opening new revenue streams and supporting the share price.

    This is a new strategic initiative that could drive future growth.

  • Partnership with Solana Foundation SBI partnered with the Solana Foundation and renamed its unit SBI Solana Global to push Japan's capital markets onto public blockchains. This expands SBI's blockchain capabilities and could attract new business.

    New partnership signals deeper blockchain commitment.

  • Ondo partnership to tokenize Japanese stocks SBI teamed with Ondo Finance to tokenize Japanese stocks for overseas investors and distribute Ondo's products in Japan. This broadens SBI's customer base and revenue opportunities in the growing tokenization market.

    New collaboration expands addressable market.

  • Coinhako acquisition completed SBI acquired a majority stake in Singapore's Coinhako, making it a consolidated subsidiary. This expands SBI's digital asset business in Asia and adds over 480,000 users, strengthening its regional footprint.

    New acquisition expands crypto business and user base.

  • FOLIO Holdings IPO application SBI applied to list its 69%-owned subsidiary FOLIO Holdings on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The IPO could unlock value and strengthen group synergies, potentially boosting SBI's share price.

    New IPO plan may unlock value for SBI shareholders.

▲4

SBI expands crypto and digital asset push with new investments and tests

  • SBI invests ¥12bn in US crypto exchange EDX Markets SBI put about 12 billion yen into EDX Markets, a US crypto exchange for big institutions. This expands SBI's digital asset business and could boost future profits, supporting the share price.

    This is a major new investment that directly expands SBI's crypto ecosystem.

  • SBI VC Trade hits 2 million crypto accounts SBI's crypto exchange now has over 2 million registered accounts, about 14% of Japan's total. With the Bitbank deal, the group could reach nearly 3 million accounts, making it a top player and strengthening its competitive position.

    This shows SBI's growing scale and market share in crypto, a key growth area.

  • SBI co-leads cross-border security token trading test on Ethereum SBI Securities and partners tested cross-border trading of security tokens using the USDC stablecoin on Ethereum. This shows SBI is at the forefront of using blockchain for traditional finance, which could open new business opportunities.

    This innovation positions SBI as a leader in digital asset infrastructure, a potential long-term growth driver.

  • SBI's DeFimans to test next-gen trade execution with AI SBI Group's DeFimans and partners will test a new trade execution system that combines traditional and on-chain markets, using AI. This could make SBI a key player in the growing market for tokenized assets, supporting future revenue.

    This is a new initiative that could position SBI for growth in digital asset trading infrastructure.