Rakuten Group vs KDDI: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Rakuten Group, Inc. (4755.JP)

Q3 202623 Jun – 28 Sep 2026

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Rakuten swings to profit but loses KDDI roaming deal

First operating profit in seven years Rakuten posted a ¥50.4bn operating profit, its first in seven years, as shopping, financial services, and mobile losses improved. This shows the core business is finally turning around.
This is a major positive event that directly boosts investor confidence and the stock price.
KDDI ends roaming deal KDDI ended its roaming deal with Rakuten, threatening network quality, customer losses, and costly catch-up spending. This is a significant blow to Rakuten's mobile business.
This is a major negative event that could hurt future earnings and competitiveness.
Government satellite funding and AST partnership Japan granted up to ¥148bn for a domestic satellite network, reducing reliance on foreign services. A joint venture with AST SpaceMobile targets satellite-powered mobile service next year, adding a growth driver.
This new funding and partnership open a new growth avenue and reduce dependency risks.
Warehouse writedown and regulatory friction A ¥17bn warehouse writedown pushed a quarterly net loss of ¥10.9bn. Regulatory friction also rose: scrutiny over furusato nozei fees and a forced reversal of its Rakuten ID contract policy.
These negative items add financial and regulatory pressure, weighing on sentiment.

September 20267 Aug – 28 Sep 2026

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Rakuten's mobile network loses KDDI roaming as new bets and setbacks mix

KDDI roaming ends, network quality at risk KDDI is ending the roaming deal that let Rakuten Mobile borrow its network in cities from October. Rakuten's own 5G base stations lag rivals and its 2025 buildout fell far short of plan, so quality may drop, customers may leave, and catching up could mean costly new spending that revives losses.
This is the biggest force on Rakuten's mobile unit, threatening subscribers and profitability.
17 billion yen warehouse writedown deepens loss Rakuten wrote down 17 billion yen of warehouse leasing assets to zero and will use the space itself, pushing its second-quarter net result to a 10.9 billion yen loss. That is a direct hit to reported profit and shows the logistics side is not yet paying off.
A concrete capital loss that directly reduces reported earnings and investor confidence.
Regulatory pushback on fees and ID policy Rakuten kept its furusato nozei fee while three rivals agreed to cut, drawing ministry scrutiny. Days later it scrapped a plan to auto-cancel mobile contracts without a Rakuten ID after the communications ministry intervened. Both show regulatory friction that can raise costs and hurt its public standing.
Regulatory pressure on two key businesses is a real counterweight to the growth story.
New defense drone and Ferrari partnerships Rakuten will act as Japanese go-between for German drone maker Helsing's defense drones, a new revenue path beyond its inspection drone work. It also signed a global partnership with Ferrari starting 2027, extending the sports-sponsorship brand strategy. Both are early-stage and financial details are undisclosed.
These are the period's main positive developments, showing new business and brand expansion.

Latest7 Aug – 28 Sep 2026

▼3▲1

Rakuten's mobile network loses KDDI roaming as new bets and setbacks mix

KDDI roaming ends, network quality at risk KDDI is ending the roaming deal that let Rakuten Mobile borrow its network in cities from October. Rakuten's own 5G base stations lag rivals and its 2025 buildout fell far short of plan, so quality may drop, customers may leave, and catching up could mean costly new spending that revives losses.
This is the biggest force on Rakuten's mobile unit, threatening subscribers and profitability.
17 billion yen warehouse writedown deepens loss Rakuten wrote down 17 billion yen of warehouse leasing assets to zero and will use the space itself, pushing its second-quarter net result to a 10.9 billion yen loss. That is a direct hit to reported profit and shows the logistics side is not yet paying off.
A concrete capital loss that directly reduces reported earnings and investor confidence.
Regulatory pushback on fees and ID policy Rakuten kept its furusato nozei fee while three rivals agreed to cut, drawing ministry scrutiny. Days later it scrapped a plan to auto-cancel mobile contracts without a Rakuten ID after the communications ministry intervened. Both show regulatory friction that can raise costs and hurt its public standing.
Regulatory pressure on two key businesses is a real counterweight to the growth story.
New defense drone and Ferrari partnerships Rakuten will act as Japanese go-between for German drone maker Helsing's defense drones, a new revenue path beyond its inspection drone work. It also signed a global partnership with Ferrari starting 2027, extending the sports-sponsorship brand strategy. Both are early-stage and financial details are undisclosed.
These are the period's main positive developments, showing new business and brand expansion.

July 202623 Jun – 10 Aug 2026

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Rakuten's satellite bet and first profit in seven years drive the story

Government grant for satellite network Japan will give Rakuten up to 148 billion yen to build a domestic satellite communications network, reducing reliance on foreign services like Starlink. This is a huge cash injection that lowers the cost and risk of a new growth business, supporting the share price.
This is a major new capital boost that directly improves Rakuten's financial position and future prospects.
Joint venture with AST SpaceMobile Rakuten is forming a joint venture with AST SpaceMobile to offer satellite-powered mobile service in Japan, with coverage targeted for next year. This opens a new revenue stream and strengthens Rakuten Mobile's offering, which the market views as a positive growth driver.
The JV is a concrete new business expansion that could add subscribers and revenue, directly impacting Rakuten's value.
First operating profit in seven years Rakuten reported a 50.4 billion yen operating profit for the June 2026 interim period, its first in seven years, as internet shopping and financial services grew strongly and mobile losses narrowed. This shows the core business is turning around, a key positive for the stock.
Profitability is the most fundamental driver of share price, and this milestone signals a major improvement in Rakuten's financial health.
Mobile service disruptions after Kumamoto earthquake Rakuten Mobile's services were disrupted in Kumamoto after a powerful earthquake, with no timeline for restoration. While temporary, this highlights network vulnerability and could hurt customer trust and add costs, a modest negative for the stock.
This is a new operational setback that could affect Rakuten Mobile's reputation and near-term performance.

23 Jun – 10 Aug 2026

▲3▼1

Rakuten's satellite bet and first profit in seven years drive the story

Government grant for satellite network Japan will give Rakuten up to 148 billion yen to build a domestic satellite communications network, reducing reliance on foreign services like Starlink. This is a huge cash injection that lowers the cost and risk of a new growth business, supporting the share price.
This is a major new capital boost that directly improves Rakuten's financial position and future prospects.
Joint venture with AST SpaceMobile Rakuten is forming a joint venture with AST SpaceMobile to offer satellite-powered mobile service in Japan, with coverage targeted for next year. This opens a new revenue stream and strengthens Rakuten Mobile's offering, which the market views as a positive growth driver.
The JV is a concrete new business expansion that could add subscribers and revenue, directly impacting Rakuten's value.
First operating profit in seven years Rakuten reported a 50.4 billion yen operating profit for the June 2026 interim period, its first in seven years, as internet shopping and financial services grew strongly and mobile losses narrowed. This shows the core business is turning around, a key positive for the stock.
Profitability is the most fundamental driver of share price, and this milestone signals a major improvement in Rakuten's financial health.
Mobile service disruptions after Kumamoto earthquake Rakuten Mobile's services were disrupted in Kumamoto after a powerful earthquake, with no timeline for restoration. While temporary, this highlights network vulnerability and could hurt customer trust and add costs, a modest negative for the stock.
This is a new operational setback that could affect Rakuten Mobile's reputation and near-term performance.

KDDI Corporation (9433.JP)

Q3 20266 Jul – 3 Oct 2026

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KDDI expands services but faces major data breach and quake hit

Connected-car and stablecoin expansion KDDI deepened connected-car ties with BMW via Verizon and piloted Japan's first in-store stablecoin payment with Lawson, advancing new growth areas beyond traditional telecom.
Shows new business initiatives that could drive future revenue.
Ended Rakuten roaming and Oasis bid support KDDI ended Rakuten roaming to ease network congestion and weaken a rival, while Oasis's push for a higher Kakaku.com bid benefited KDDI's retained stake.
Highlights competitive and financial positives from strategic moves.
Massive data leak and regulatory fallout A leak exposed 12.23 million emails and 7.62 million passwords, drawing privacy-regulator guidance and raising fine, remediation, and reputational risks.
Major security breach with financial and reputational consequences.
Kumamoto earthquake disruption and Kakaku alliance end The Kumamoto earthquake disrupted mobile service, adding repair costs and customer inconvenience, while KDDI ended its Kakaku.com capital alliance though it kept a 17.7% stake and business ties.
Operational and strategic setbacks that weighed on performance.

August 202615 Jul – 3 Oct 2026

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KDDI cuts Rakuten roaming, ends Kakaku.com alliance, expands BMW and crypto

KDDI ends Rakuten roaming, weakening a rival KDDI stopped lending its network to Rakuten Mobile in cities from October, saying the network was too congested. This frees capacity for KDDI's own users and makes Rakuten's service worse, which could slow customer losses and support KDDI's pricing power.
This is the biggest competitive event of the period and directly affects KDDI's network quality and market position.
BMW picks KDDI for U.S. connected-car service BMW launched a connected-car platform in the U.S. with Verizon and KDDI, using 5G and IoT to link new cars to data services. This expands KDDI's business beyond phones into a growing area, adding a new source of revenue over time.
It shows KDDI winning a global automaker contract, a new growth driver outside its mature home market.
Kakaku.com buyout battle and alliance end Oasis pushed for a higher bid for Kakaku.com, where KDDI is a major shareholder, potentially lifting the value of KDDI's stake. But KDDI and Kakaku.com then ended their capital alliance, though KDDI keeps its 17.7% holding and business ties continue.
It covers the main capital-markets event affecting KDDI's stake value and strategic ties.
Privacy watchdog reprimands KDDI over data leak Japan's privacy regulator issued administrative guidance to KDDI after a breach exposed data on about 12.23 million people, saying KDDI failed to limit the damage. This raises the risk of fines, remediation costs and reputational harm that could weigh on the shares.
It is the main regulatory and reputational risk to KDDI this period.

Latest15 Jul – 3 Oct 2026

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KDDI cuts Rakuten roaming, ends Kakaku.com alliance, expands BMW and crypto

KDDI ends Rakuten roaming, weakening a rival KDDI stopped lending its network to Rakuten Mobile in cities from October, saying the network was too congested. This frees capacity for KDDI's own users and makes Rakuten's service worse, which could slow customer losses and support KDDI's pricing power.
This is the biggest competitive event of the period and directly affects KDDI's network quality and market position.
BMW picks KDDI for U.S. connected-car service BMW launched a connected-car platform in the U.S. with Verizon and KDDI, using 5G and IoT to link new cars to data services. This expands KDDI's business beyond phones into a growing area, adding a new source of revenue over time.
It shows KDDI winning a global automaker contract, a new growth driver outside its mature home market.
Kakaku.com buyout battle and alliance end Oasis pushed for a higher bid for Kakaku.com, where KDDI is a major shareholder, potentially lifting the value of KDDI's stake. But KDDI and Kakaku.com then ended their capital alliance, though KDDI keeps its 17.7% holding and business ties continue.
It covers the main capital-markets event affecting KDDI's stake value and strategic ties.
Privacy watchdog reprimands KDDI over data leak Japan's privacy regulator issued administrative guidance to KDDI after a breach exposed data on about 12.23 million people, saying KDDI failed to limit the damage. This raises the risk of fines, remediation costs and reputational harm that could weigh on the shares.
It is the main regulatory and reputational risk to KDDI this period.

July 20266 Jul – 31 Jul 2026

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KDDI Expands Connected-Car and Stablecoin Pilots, but Data Leak and Quake Hit

Massive email/password leak confirmed KDDI confirmed 12.23 million email addresses and 7.62 million passwords leaked from its email system. This raises the risk of customer loss, fines, and repair costs, weighing on the share price.
A large security breach directly threatens KDDI's reputation and costs, a key negative force on the stock.
BMW connected-car deal with Verizon KDDI's platform will manage 5G/LTE connectivity for new BMW and MINI cars in the U.S. via Verizon. This adds a major automaker client, supporting future service revenue and showing KDDI's global reach.
A new international contract expands KDDI's high-value connected-car business, a positive growth driver.
Stablecoin payment pilot at Lawson KDDI and Lawson will test Japan's first in-store stablecoin payment using JPYC at a KDDI-operated store. Success could open new payment revenue and position KDDI in digital finance.
This pilot shows KDDI testing a new technology that could become a future revenue stream, a positive innovation signal.
Kumamoto earthquake disrupts mobile service Power outages and transmission failures from the Kumamoto earthquake left KDDI and rivals' mobile services down in parts of the prefecture, with no restoration timeline. This adds repair costs and short-term customer inconvenience.
A natural disaster causing network outages directly hurts KDDI's operations and may require costly repairs, a negative event.

6 Jul – 31 Jul 2026

▲2▼2

KDDI Expands Connected-Car and Stablecoin Pilots, but Data Leak and Quake Hit

Massive email/password leak confirmed KDDI confirmed 12.23 million email addresses and 7.62 million passwords leaked from its email system. This raises the risk of customer loss, fines, and repair costs, weighing on the share price.
A large security breach directly threatens KDDI's reputation and costs, a key negative force on the stock.
BMW connected-car deal with Verizon KDDI's platform will manage 5G/LTE connectivity for new BMW and MINI cars in the U.S. via Verizon. This adds a major automaker client, supporting future service revenue and showing KDDI's global reach.
A new international contract expands KDDI's high-value connected-car business, a positive growth driver.
Stablecoin payment pilot at Lawson KDDI and Lawson will test Japan's first in-store stablecoin payment using JPYC at a KDDI-operated store. Success could open new payment revenue and position KDDI in digital finance.
This pilot shows KDDI testing a new technology that could become a future revenue stream, a positive innovation signal.
Kumamoto earthquake disrupts mobile service Power outages and transmission failures from the Kumamoto earthquake left KDDI and rivals' mobile services down in parts of the prefecture, with no restoration timeline. This adds repair costs and short-term customer inconvenience.
A natural disaster causing network outages directly hurts KDDI's operations and may require costly repairs, a negative event.