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Rakuten Group vs Advice It Infinite Pcl: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Rakuten Group, Inc. (4755.JP)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Rakuten swings to profit but loses KDDI roaming deal

  • First operating profit in seven years Rakuten posted a ¥50.4bn operating profit, its first in seven years, as shopping, financial services, and mobile losses improved. This shows the core business is finally turning around.

    This is a major positive event that directly boosts investor confidence and the stock price.

  • KDDI ends roaming deal KDDI ended its roaming deal with Rakuten, threatening network quality, customer losses, and costly catch-up spending. This is a significant blow to Rakuten's mobile business.

    This is a major negative event that could hurt future earnings and competitiveness.

  • Government satellite funding and AST partnership Japan granted up to ¥148bn for a domestic satellite network, reducing reliance on foreign services. A joint venture with AST SpaceMobile targets satellite-powered mobile service next year, adding a growth driver.

    This new funding and partnership open a new growth avenue and reduce dependency risks.

  • Warehouse writedown and regulatory friction A ¥17bn warehouse writedown pushed a quarterly net loss of ¥10.9bn. Regulatory friction also rose: scrutiny over furusato nozei fees and a forced reversal of its Rakuten ID contract policy.

    These negative items add financial and regulatory pressure, weighing on sentiment.

September 2026
▼3▲1

Rakuten's mobile network loses KDDI roaming as new bets and setbacks mix

  • KDDI roaming ends, network quality at risk KDDI is ending the roaming deal that let Rakuten Mobile borrow its network in cities from October. Rakuten's own 5G base stations lag rivals and its 2025 buildout fell far short of plan, so quality may drop, customers may leave, and catching up could mean costly new spending that revives losses.

    This is the biggest force on Rakuten's mobile unit, threatening subscribers and profitability.

  • 17 billion yen warehouse writedown deepens loss Rakuten wrote down 17 billion yen of warehouse leasing assets to zero and will use the space itself, pushing its second-quarter net result to a 10.9 billion yen loss. That is a direct hit to reported profit and shows the logistics side is not yet paying off.

    A concrete capital loss that directly reduces reported earnings and investor confidence.

  • Regulatory pushback on fees and ID policy Rakuten kept its furusato nozei fee while three rivals agreed to cut, drawing ministry scrutiny. Days later it scrapped a plan to auto-cancel mobile contracts without a Rakuten ID after the communications ministry intervened. Both show regulatory friction that can raise costs and hurt its public standing.

    Regulatory pressure on two key businesses is a real counterweight to the growth story.

  • New defense drone and Ferrari partnerships Rakuten will act as Japanese go-between for German drone maker Helsing's defense drones, a new revenue path beyond its inspection drone work. It also signed a global partnership with Ferrari starting 2027, extending the sports-sponsorship brand strategy. Both are early-stage and financial details are undisclosed.

    These are the period's main positive developments, showing new business and brand expansion.

Latest
▼3▲1

Rakuten's mobile network loses KDDI roaming as new bets and setbacks mix

  • KDDI roaming ends, network quality at risk KDDI is ending the roaming deal that let Rakuten Mobile borrow its network in cities from October. Rakuten's own 5G base stations lag rivals and its 2025 buildout fell far short of plan, so quality may drop, customers may leave, and catching up could mean costly new spending that revives losses.

    This is the biggest force on Rakuten's mobile unit, threatening subscribers and profitability.

  • 17 billion yen warehouse writedown deepens loss Rakuten wrote down 17 billion yen of warehouse leasing assets to zero and will use the space itself, pushing its second-quarter net result to a 10.9 billion yen loss. That is a direct hit to reported profit and shows the logistics side is not yet paying off.

    A concrete capital loss that directly reduces reported earnings and investor confidence.

  • Regulatory pushback on fees and ID policy Rakuten kept its furusato nozei fee while three rivals agreed to cut, drawing ministry scrutiny. Days later it scrapped a plan to auto-cancel mobile contracts without a Rakuten ID after the communications ministry intervened. Both show regulatory friction that can raise costs and hurt its public standing.

    Regulatory pressure on two key businesses is a real counterweight to the growth story.

  • New defense drone and Ferrari partnerships Rakuten will act as Japanese go-between for German drone maker Helsing's defense drones, a new revenue path beyond its inspection drone work. It also signed a global partnership with Ferrari starting 2027, extending the sports-sponsorship brand strategy. Both are early-stage and financial details are undisclosed.

    These are the period's main positive developments, showing new business and brand expansion.

July 2026
▲3▼1

Rakuten's satellite bet and first profit in seven years drive the story

  • Government grant for satellite network Japan will give Rakuten up to 148 billion yen to build a domestic satellite communications network, reducing reliance on foreign services like Starlink. This is a huge cash injection that lowers the cost and risk of a new growth business, supporting the share price.

    This is a major new capital boost that directly improves Rakuten's financial position and future prospects.

  • Joint venture with AST SpaceMobile Rakuten is forming a joint venture with AST SpaceMobile to offer satellite-powered mobile service in Japan, with coverage targeted for next year. This opens a new revenue stream and strengthens Rakuten Mobile's offering, which the market views as a positive growth driver.

    The JV is a concrete new business expansion that could add subscribers and revenue, directly impacting Rakuten's value.

  • First operating profit in seven years Rakuten reported a 50.4 billion yen operating profit for the June 2026 interim period, its first in seven years, as internet shopping and financial services grew strongly and mobile losses narrowed. This shows the core business is turning around, a key positive for the stock.

    Profitability is the most fundamental driver of share price, and this milestone signals a major improvement in Rakuten's financial health.

  • Mobile service disruptions after Kumamoto earthquake Rakuten Mobile's services were disrupted in Kumamoto after a powerful earthquake, with no timeline for restoration. While temporary, this highlights network vulnerability and could hurt customer trust and add costs, a modest negative for the stock.

    This is a new operational setback that could affect Rakuten Mobile's reputation and near-term performance.

▲3▼1

Rakuten's satellite bet and first profit in seven years drive the story

  • Government grant for satellite network Japan will give Rakuten up to 148 billion yen to build a domestic satellite communications network, reducing reliance on foreign services like Starlink. This is a huge cash injection that lowers the cost and risk of a new growth business, supporting the share price.

    This is a major new capital boost that directly improves Rakuten's financial position and future prospects.

  • Joint venture with AST SpaceMobile Rakuten is forming a joint venture with AST SpaceMobile to offer satellite-powered mobile service in Japan, with coverage targeted for next year. This opens a new revenue stream and strengthens Rakuten Mobile's offering, which the market views as a positive growth driver.

    The JV is a concrete new business expansion that could add subscribers and revenue, directly impacting Rakuten's value.

  • First operating profit in seven years Rakuten reported a 50.4 billion yen operating profit for the June 2026 interim period, its first in seven years, as internet shopping and financial services grew strongly and mobile losses narrowed. This shows the core business is turning around, a key positive for the stock.

    Profitability is the most fundamental driver of share price, and this milestone signals a major improvement in Rakuten's financial health.

  • Mobile service disruptions after Kumamoto earthquake Rakuten Mobile's services were disrupted in Kumamoto after a powerful earthquake, with no timeline for restoration. While temporary, this highlights network vulnerability and could hurt customer trust and add costs, a modest negative for the stock.

    This is a new operational setback that could affect Rakuten Mobile's reputation and near-term performance.

Advice It Infinite Pcl (ADVICE.BK)

Q3 2026
▲4

ADVICE Rides Record Profits, iPhone 18 Pre-Orders, and Upgrades

  • Record Q2 and H1 profits ADVICE reported record second-quarter and first-half profits, up 83% and 82.7% from a year earlier, showing strong earnings momentum.

    This is a key new financial result that supports the bull case.

  • Raised interim dividend The company raised its interim dividend, returning more cash to shareholders and signaling confidence in its financial health.

    A new capital return event that can attract income-focused investors.

  • iPhone 18 pre-orders fully booked Pre-orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are fully booked, with sales about 50% higher than last year's iPhone 17 launch, boosting demand.

    A major new product cycle driving revenue expectations.

  • Broker upgrades and new business unit Brokers upgraded ADVICE to top-pick status with target prices of 8.40–8.82 baht, while the new Advice Business Solutions unit targets higher-margin AI, cloud, and enterprise revenue.

    Analyst actions and strategic expansion can lift sentiment and future margins.

September 2026
▲4

ADVICE Rides Record Profits, iPhone 18 Pre-Orders, and Upgrades

  • Record Q2 and H1 profits ADVICE reported record second-quarter and first-half profits, up 83% and 82.7% from a year earlier, showing strong earnings momentum.

    This is a key new financial result that supports the bull case.

  • Raised interim dividend The company raised its interim dividend, returning more cash to shareholders and signaling confidence in its financial health.

    A new capital return event that can attract income-focused investors.

  • iPhone 18 pre-orders fully booked Pre-orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are fully booked, with sales about 50% higher than last year's iPhone 17 launch, boosting demand.

    A major new product cycle driving revenue expectations.

  • Broker upgrades and new business unit Brokers upgraded ADVICE to top-pick status with target prices of 8.40–8.82 baht, while the new Advice Business Solutions unit targets higher-margin AI, cloud, and enterprise revenue.

    Analyst actions and strategic expansion can lift sentiment and future margins.

Latest
▲4

ADVICE rides iPhone 18 boom, AI/enterprise push, and record profits

  • iPhone 18 demand surges, driving sales and margins ADVICE says iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max sales are running about 50% above last year's iPhone 17 launch, with pre-orders fully booked. Earlier iPhone models also saw price increases of about 5,000 baht per device, lifting margins. This strong demand supports second-half revenue and profit growth.

    This is the biggest new demand driver, directly boosting ADVICE's sales and margins.

  • New AI and enterprise solutions open growth avenue ADVICE launched Advice Business Solutions to target enterprise customers with AI, cloud, cybersecurity, and data center services, backed by partners like AMD, Lenovo, Dell, AWS, and Palo Alto. This expands revenue beyond retail and aims for higher-margin recurring income, supporting long-term growth.

    This new business line diversifies revenue and could lift margins, a key positive driver.

  • Record first-half profit and rising dividends ADVICE reported first-half 2026 net profit up 82.7% to 253 million baht, with revenue up 10.6% to 8.85 billion baht. Gross margin improved to 12.45%. The company paid an interim dividend of 0.23 baht per share, reflecting strong cash generation and shareholder returns.

    Strong financial results and dividends underpin investor confidence and support the stock price.

  • Brokers raise targets on strong outlook Dao Securities maintains Buy with an 8.50 baht target, expecting 2026 profit up 69%. Kasikorn Securities keeps a Positive view with an 8.82 baht target, citing ~20% sales growth. Multiple brokers highlight ADVICE as a top pick to benefit from new iPhone launches and IT retail strength.

    Broker upgrades and positive recommendations attract investors and push the price up.

▲3

ADVICE rides record profit, iPhone 18 demand, and broker upgrades

  • Record Q2 profit and raised dividend ADVICE reported a record Q2 fiscal 2026 net profit of 137 million baht, up 83% year on year, beating estimates. Revenue hit a new high of 4.5 billion baht, and the company announced a first-half dividend of 0.23 baht per share. This strong result supports the stock price by showing the company is growing and returning cash to shareholders.

    This is a major new earnings event that directly boosts investor confidence and the stock's value.

  • iPhone 18 Pro Max bookings fully subscribed ADVICE said bookings for the iPhone 18 Pro Max filled their allocated quota and sold out quickly. The company expects Q3 2026 revenue to improve from Q2, driven by new smartphone models, and maintains a 15% revenue growth target for 2026. This drives the stock up because it signals strong consumer demand and higher sales ahead.

    This is a new, company-specific demand catalyst that directly supports future revenue and earnings.

  • Broker upgrades and top-pick status Krungsri Securities recommends buying ADVICE with an 8.40 baht target, forecasting 2026 profit up 65%. Daiwa Securities names ADVICE among its five top picks for October. Kasikorn Securities expects Q3 profit to surge 84% year on year and sets a target of 8.82 baht. These endorsements attract investors and push the price up.

    New analyst recommendations and targets provide fresh reasons for investors to buy the stock.

  • Strong Q3 sales but margin and growth may slow Krungsri notes Q3-to-date sales for IT retailers like ADVICE grew 15-20% year on year, helped by pull-forward purchases before the iPhone 18 launch. However, it warns post-launch sales growth may slow and the boost from low-cost inventory will fade, potentially slowing earnings growth in late 2026 and 2027. This creates some caution for the stock.

    This provides a balanced view, highlighting both current demand strength and future headwinds that could affect the stock.