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Rakuten Group vs Sea: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Rakuten Group, Inc. (4755.JP)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Rakuten swings to profit but loses KDDI roaming deal

  • First operating profit in seven years Rakuten posted a ¥50.4bn operating profit, its first in seven years, as shopping, financial services, and mobile losses improved. This shows the core business is finally turning around.

    This is a major positive event that directly boosts investor confidence and the stock price.

  • KDDI ends roaming deal KDDI ended its roaming deal with Rakuten, threatening network quality, customer losses, and costly catch-up spending. This is a significant blow to Rakuten's mobile business.

    This is a major negative event that could hurt future earnings and competitiveness.

  • Government satellite funding and AST partnership Japan granted up to ¥148bn for a domestic satellite network, reducing reliance on foreign services. A joint venture with AST SpaceMobile targets satellite-powered mobile service next year, adding a growth driver.

    This new funding and partnership open a new growth avenue and reduce dependency risks.

  • Warehouse writedown and regulatory friction A ¥17bn warehouse writedown pushed a quarterly net loss of ¥10.9bn. Regulatory friction also rose: scrutiny over furusato nozei fees and a forced reversal of its Rakuten ID contract policy.

    These negative items add financial and regulatory pressure, weighing on sentiment.

September 2026
▼3▲1

Rakuten's mobile network loses KDDI roaming as new bets and setbacks mix

  • KDDI roaming ends, network quality at risk KDDI is ending the roaming deal that let Rakuten Mobile borrow its network in cities from October. Rakuten's own 5G base stations lag rivals and its 2025 buildout fell far short of plan, so quality may drop, customers may leave, and catching up could mean costly new spending that revives losses.

    This is the biggest force on Rakuten's mobile unit, threatening subscribers and profitability.

  • 17 billion yen warehouse writedown deepens loss Rakuten wrote down 17 billion yen of warehouse leasing assets to zero and will use the space itself, pushing its second-quarter net result to a 10.9 billion yen loss. That is a direct hit to reported profit and shows the logistics side is not yet paying off.

    A concrete capital loss that directly reduces reported earnings and investor confidence.

  • Regulatory pushback on fees and ID policy Rakuten kept its furusato nozei fee while three rivals agreed to cut, drawing ministry scrutiny. Days later it scrapped a plan to auto-cancel mobile contracts without a Rakuten ID after the communications ministry intervened. Both show regulatory friction that can raise costs and hurt its public standing.

    Regulatory pressure on two key businesses is a real counterweight to the growth story.

  • New defense drone and Ferrari partnerships Rakuten will act as Japanese go-between for German drone maker Helsing's defense drones, a new revenue path beyond its inspection drone work. It also signed a global partnership with Ferrari starting 2027, extending the sports-sponsorship brand strategy. Both are early-stage and financial details are undisclosed.

    These are the period's main positive developments, showing new business and brand expansion.

Latest
▼3▲1

Rakuten's mobile network loses KDDI roaming as new bets and setbacks mix

  • KDDI roaming ends, network quality at risk KDDI is ending the roaming deal that let Rakuten Mobile borrow its network in cities from October. Rakuten's own 5G base stations lag rivals and its 2025 buildout fell far short of plan, so quality may drop, customers may leave, and catching up could mean costly new spending that revives losses.

    This is the biggest force on Rakuten's mobile unit, threatening subscribers and profitability.

  • 17 billion yen warehouse writedown deepens loss Rakuten wrote down 17 billion yen of warehouse leasing assets to zero and will use the space itself, pushing its second-quarter net result to a 10.9 billion yen loss. That is a direct hit to reported profit and shows the logistics side is not yet paying off.

    A concrete capital loss that directly reduces reported earnings and investor confidence.

  • Regulatory pushback on fees and ID policy Rakuten kept its furusato nozei fee while three rivals agreed to cut, drawing ministry scrutiny. Days later it scrapped a plan to auto-cancel mobile contracts without a Rakuten ID after the communications ministry intervened. Both show regulatory friction that can raise costs and hurt its public standing.

    Regulatory pressure on two key businesses is a real counterweight to the growth story.

  • New defense drone and Ferrari partnerships Rakuten will act as Japanese go-between for German drone maker Helsing's defense drones, a new revenue path beyond its inspection drone work. It also signed a global partnership with Ferrari starting 2027, extending the sports-sponsorship brand strategy. Both are early-stage and financial details are undisclosed.

    These are the period's main positive developments, showing new business and brand expansion.

July 2026
▲3▼1

Rakuten's satellite bet and first profit in seven years drive the story

  • Government grant for satellite network Japan will give Rakuten up to 148 billion yen to build a domestic satellite communications network, reducing reliance on foreign services like Starlink. This is a huge cash injection that lowers the cost and risk of a new growth business, supporting the share price.

    This is a major new capital boost that directly improves Rakuten's financial position and future prospects.

  • Joint venture with AST SpaceMobile Rakuten is forming a joint venture with AST SpaceMobile to offer satellite-powered mobile service in Japan, with coverage targeted for next year. This opens a new revenue stream and strengthens Rakuten Mobile's offering, which the market views as a positive growth driver.

    The JV is a concrete new business expansion that could add subscribers and revenue, directly impacting Rakuten's value.

  • First operating profit in seven years Rakuten reported a 50.4 billion yen operating profit for the June 2026 interim period, its first in seven years, as internet shopping and financial services grew strongly and mobile losses narrowed. This shows the core business is turning around, a key positive for the stock.

    Profitability is the most fundamental driver of share price, and this milestone signals a major improvement in Rakuten's financial health.

  • Mobile service disruptions after Kumamoto earthquake Rakuten Mobile's services were disrupted in Kumamoto after a powerful earthquake, with no timeline for restoration. While temporary, this highlights network vulnerability and could hurt customer trust and add costs, a modest negative for the stock.

    This is a new operational setback that could affect Rakuten Mobile's reputation and near-term performance.

▲3▼1

Rakuten's satellite bet and first profit in seven years drive the story

  • Government grant for satellite network Japan will give Rakuten up to 148 billion yen to build a domestic satellite communications network, reducing reliance on foreign services like Starlink. This is a huge cash injection that lowers the cost and risk of a new growth business, supporting the share price.

    This is a major new capital boost that directly improves Rakuten's financial position and future prospects.

  • Joint venture with AST SpaceMobile Rakuten is forming a joint venture with AST SpaceMobile to offer satellite-powered mobile service in Japan, with coverage targeted for next year. This opens a new revenue stream and strengthens Rakuten Mobile's offering, which the market views as a positive growth driver.

    The JV is a concrete new business expansion that could add subscribers and revenue, directly impacting Rakuten's value.

  • First operating profit in seven years Rakuten reported a 50.4 billion yen operating profit for the June 2026 interim period, its first in seven years, as internet shopping and financial services grew strongly and mobile losses narrowed. This shows the core business is turning around, a key positive for the stock.

    Profitability is the most fundamental driver of share price, and this milestone signals a major improvement in Rakuten's financial health.

  • Mobile service disruptions after Kumamoto earthquake Rakuten Mobile's services were disrupted in Kumamoto after a powerful earthquake, with no timeline for restoration. While temporary, this highlights network vulnerability and could hurt customer trust and add costs, a modest negative for the stock.

    This is a new operational setback that could affect Rakuten Mobile's reputation and near-term performance.

Sea Ltd (SE)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Sea Ltd Q3 2026: Strong Growth, Amazon Retreat, But Spending and Insider Sales Weigh

  • Strong Q2 results and growth Sea's Q2 revenue jumped 48% to $7.8B, net income reached $458M, Shopee's gross merchandise value grew 28%, and Monee's loan book expanded 62%, showing broad-based momentum.

    This is the core positive fundamental driver for the quarter.

  • Amazon's ASEAN retreat and Oaktree stake Amazon pulled back from Southeast Asia, strengthening Shopee's dominance, while Oaktree's $60.9M stake signaled value-investor confidence in Sea's prospects.

    These events improved Sea's competitive position and investor sentiment.

  • Heavy spending pressures profits Q2 EPS missed at $0.86 as heavy AI and expansion spending cut Shopee's adjusted EBITDA to $223.2M, raising concerns about profitability.

    This is a key negative factor that weighed on the stock.

  • Insider sales and high valuation Insiders including the CEO, COO, and Garena's president sold shares, mostly pre-planned but still a confidence concern. Analysts cut profit forecasts, and Sea trades near 33x forward earnings, leaving little room for error.

    These factors created overhang and valuation risk.

August 2026
▲2▼1

Sea's business surges while insiders cash out and a value giant buys in

  • Amazon retreats, Shopee dominates ASEAN Amazon is pulling back its retail operations in Southeast Asia after its regional e-commerce share fell below 0.3%, while Shopee's gross merchandise value is in the tens of billions of dollars. Less competition from a global giant strengthens Shopee's grip on its home market, supporting Sea's revenue and profit.

    Amazon's retreat removes a deep-pocketed rival and confirms Shopee's dominance, a real force behind Sea's value.

  • Oaktree takes a $60.9 million stake Billionaire Howard Marks' Oaktree Capital disclosed a new roughly $60.9 million position in Sea, a well-known value investor endorsing the stock after it fell about 30% over the past year. That kind of buyer can draw other long-term investors in, lifting demand for the shares.

    A prominent value investor buying is a fresh demand signal that can shift sentiment toward Sea.

  • Insider selling wave, including the CEO The CEO sold about 1.1 million shares for $137.3 million, and the COO, a director and Garena's president also sold. Most were pre-planned under Rule 10b5-1, so they are scheduled sales, not panic — but heavy insider selling can still weigh on investor confidence.

    Large insider sales are a visible counterweight to the good operating news and can pressure the stock.

  • Strong results, but high expectations priced in Second-quarter revenue rose 48% to $7.8 billion, with Shopee, Monee and Garena all growing. Yet analysts cut profit forecasts and flagged a bearish rating before results, and the stock trades near 33 times forward earnings — rich versus peers, so any stumble gets punished.

    It captures both the strong underlying growth and the valuation/earnings-expectation risk that can move Sea either way.

Latest
▲2▼1

Sea's business surges while insiders cash out and a value giant buys in

  • Amazon retreats, Shopee dominates ASEAN Amazon is pulling back its retail operations in Southeast Asia after its regional e-commerce share fell below 0.3%, while Shopee's gross merchandise value is in the tens of billions of dollars. Less competition from a global giant strengthens Shopee's grip on its home market, supporting Sea's revenue and profit.

    Amazon's retreat removes a deep-pocketed rival and confirms Shopee's dominance, a real force behind Sea's value.

  • Oaktree takes a $60.9 million stake Billionaire Howard Marks' Oaktree Capital disclosed a new roughly $60.9 million position in Sea, a well-known value investor endorsing the stock after it fell about 30% over the past year. That kind of buyer can draw other long-term investors in, lifting demand for the shares.

    A prominent value investor buying is a fresh demand signal that can shift sentiment toward Sea.

  • Insider selling wave, including the CEO The CEO sold about 1.1 million shares for $137.3 million, and the COO, a director and Garena's president also sold. Most were pre-planned under Rule 10b5-1, so they are scheduled sales, not panic — but heavy insider selling can still weigh on investor confidence.

    Large insider sales are a visible counterweight to the good operating news and can pressure the stock.

  • Strong results, but high expectations priced in Second-quarter revenue rose 48% to $7.8 billion, with Shopee, Monee and Garena all growing. Yet analysts cut profit forecasts and flagged a bearish rating before results, and the stock trades near 33 times forward earnings — rich versus peers, so any stumble gets punished.

    It captures both the strong underlying growth and the valuation/earnings-expectation risk that can move Sea either way.

July 2026
▲3

Sea's AI Push and Strong Q2 Revenue Drive Growth, but Spending Weighs on Profit

  • Q2 revenue surges 48% to $7.8B, net income $458M Sea reported Q2 2026 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 48% year on year, with net income of $458 million. Shopee's gross merchandise value rose 28% to $38.3 billion, and Monee's loan book grew 62%. This strong top-line growth and profitability reassure investors about Sea's expansion.

    This is the latest earnings result, a major new event that directly shows Sea's financial health and growth trajectory.

  • Q2 EPS misses at $0.86 despite revenue beat While revenue beat expectations, earnings per share came in at $0.86, below forecasts. Higher spending, especially on AI and expansion, pressured profitability. This mixed result may cause some investor caution, but the revenue beat and reaffirmed EBITDA target provide support.

    This is a key new earnings detail that explains the mixed market reaction and highlights the cost of growth.

  • Sea partners with OpenAI to integrate AI across Shopee Sea announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI to bring AI tools to Shopee, including ChatGPT product discovery and seller tools. This could enhance user engagement and operational efficiency, but also drove higher AI-related spending that reduced Shopee's adjusted EBITDA to $223.2 million from $264.4 million a year earlier.

    This is a new major partnership that could shape Sea's competitive position and future growth, while also explaining the profit pressure.

  • Visa and ShopeePay launch Payment Passkey in Thailand Visa and ShopeePay launched Payment Passkey in Thailand, enabling instant payments via face or fingerprint scan. This enhances security and convenience on Shopee, likely boosting user adoption and transaction volume. It strengthens ShopeePay's ecosystem and could drive more digital financial services growth.

    This is a new product launch that expands Sea's fintech offerings and could increase user engagement and transaction volume.

▲3

Sea's AI Push and Strong Q2 Revenue Drive Growth, but Spending Weighs on Profit

  • Q2 revenue surges 48% to $7.8B, net income $458M Sea reported Q2 2026 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 48% year on year, with net income of $458 million. Shopee's gross merchandise value rose 28% to $38.3 billion, and Monee's loan book grew 62%. This strong top-line growth and profitability reassure investors about Sea's expansion.

    This is the latest earnings result, a major new event that directly shows Sea's financial health and growth trajectory.

  • Q2 EPS misses at $0.86 despite revenue beat While revenue beat expectations, earnings per share came in at $0.86, below forecasts. Higher spending, especially on AI and expansion, pressured profitability. This mixed result may cause some investor caution, but the revenue beat and reaffirmed EBITDA target provide support.

    This is a key new earnings detail that explains the mixed market reaction and highlights the cost of growth.

  • Sea partners with OpenAI to integrate AI across Shopee Sea announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI to bring AI tools to Shopee, including ChatGPT product discovery and seller tools. This could enhance user engagement and operational efficiency, but also drove higher AI-related spending that reduced Shopee's adjusted EBITDA to $223.2 million from $264.4 million a year earlier.

    This is a new major partnership that could shape Sea's competitive position and future growth, while also explaining the profit pressure.

  • Visa and ShopeePay launch Payment Passkey in Thailand Visa and ShopeePay launched Payment Passkey in Thailand, enabling instant payments via face or fingerprint scan. This enhances security and convenience on Shopee, likely boosting user adoption and transaction volume. It strengthens ShopeePay's ecosystem and could drive more digital financial services growth.

    This is a new product launch that expands Sea's fintech offerings and could increase user engagement and transaction volume.