← Kubota overview

Kubota vs Deere &: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Kubota Corporation (6326.JP)

Q3 2026
▲4

Kubota lifts profit outlook, buys back stock, expands AI and water bets

  • Profit forecast raised 54% on strong North America machinery and weak yen Kubota now expects net profit of 289 billion yen for 2026, up from 210 billion, beating analyst estimates of about 229 billion. Solid construction machinery sales in North America and a weaker yen are driving the upgrade, signaling the core business is performing better than expected.

    This is the single biggest new fundamental driver of the stock's value.

  • 40 billion yen share buyback supports the stock price Kubota will repurchase up to 18 million shares, or 1.6% of those outstanding, for up to 40 billion yen between August 5 and December 18. Buying back stock reduces the number of shares and typically lifts the price by returning cash to shareholders.

    A concrete capital return that directly supports the share price.

  • Kubota joins Nvidia's physical AI coalition for robots and industrial systems Kubota is among Japanese industrial firms working with Nvidia on physical AI models for robots and industrial systems, building on Nvidia's Cosmos, Isaac and Jetson platforms. This could expand Kubota's automation offerings and open new demand, though financial terms and timing are not yet disclosed.

    A new growth avenue that could broaden Kubota's automation business over time.

  • AirJoule water-from-air partnership adds a new water infrastructure business Kubota bought two AirJoule water-from-air systems for sites in Texas and California, with deployments starting in the third quarter of 2026, and won exclusive rights to sell AirJoule systems to multi-unit residential developments in those states. This expands Kubota's water business into water-scarce regions.

    A new commercial partnership that broadens Kubota's water infrastructure revenue stream.

July 2026
▲4

Kubota lifts profit outlook, buys back stock, expands AI and water bets

  • Profit forecast raised 54% on strong North America machinery and weak yen Kubota now expects net profit of 289 billion yen for 2026, up from 210 billion, beating analyst estimates of about 229 billion. Solid construction machinery sales in North America and a weaker yen are driving the upgrade, signaling the core business is performing better than expected.

    This is the single biggest new fundamental driver of the stock's value.

  • 40 billion yen share buyback supports the stock price Kubota will repurchase up to 18 million shares, or 1.6% of those outstanding, for up to 40 billion yen between August 5 and December 18. Buying back stock reduces the number of shares and typically lifts the price by returning cash to shareholders.

    A concrete capital return that directly supports the share price.

  • Kubota joins Nvidia's physical AI coalition for robots and industrial systems Kubota is among Japanese industrial firms working with Nvidia on physical AI models for robots and industrial systems, building on Nvidia's Cosmos, Isaac and Jetson platforms. This could expand Kubota's automation offerings and open new demand, though financial terms and timing are not yet disclosed.

    A new growth avenue that could broaden Kubota's automation business over time.

  • AirJoule water-from-air partnership adds a new water infrastructure business Kubota bought two AirJoule water-from-air systems for sites in Texas and California, with deployments starting in the third quarter of 2026, and won exclusive rights to sell AirJoule systems to multi-unit residential developments in those states. This expands Kubota's water business into water-scarce regions.

    A new commercial partnership that broadens Kubota's water infrastructure revenue stream.

Latest
▲4

Kubota lifts profit outlook, buys back stock, expands AI and water bets

  • Profit forecast raised 54% on strong North America machinery and weak yen Kubota now expects net profit of 289 billion yen for 2026, up from 210 billion, beating analyst estimates of about 229 billion. Solid construction machinery sales in North America and a weaker yen are driving the upgrade, signaling the core business is performing better than expected.

    This is the single biggest new fundamental driver of the stock's value.

  • 40 billion yen share buyback supports the stock price Kubota will repurchase up to 18 million shares, or 1.6% of those outstanding, for up to 40 billion yen between August 5 and December 18. Buying back stock reduces the number of shares and typically lifts the price by returning cash to shareholders.

    A concrete capital return that directly supports the share price.

  • Kubota joins Nvidia's physical AI coalition for robots and industrial systems Kubota is among Japanese industrial firms working with Nvidia on physical AI models for robots and industrial systems, building on Nvidia's Cosmos, Isaac and Jetson platforms. This could expand Kubota's automation offerings and open new demand, though financial terms and timing are not yet disclosed.

    A new growth avenue that could broaden Kubota's automation business over time.

  • AirJoule water-from-air partnership adds a new water infrastructure business Kubota bought two AirJoule water-from-air systems for sites in Texas and California, with deployments starting in the third quarter of 2026, and won exclusive rights to sell AirJoule systems to multi-unit residential developments in those states. This expands Kubota's water business into water-scarce regions.

    A new commercial partnership that broadens Kubota's water infrastructure revenue stream.

Deere & Company (DE)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

Deere hits record on earnings beat, buybacks, but regulatory and tariff risks loom

  • Q3 earnings beat and raised guidance Deere beat Q3 earnings with EPS of $5.10, raised full-year guidance, and authorized new buybacks, sending shares to a record above $700 as management called 2026 the bottom of the farm downturn.

    This is the primary new positive event that drove the stock to a record high.

  • Construction and forestry strength Construction and forestry sales rose 18%, offsetting a 6% farm-segment decline, while AI investments and a $10M Reservoir partnership support precision-ag growth.

    This new segment performance and technology investment helped counterbalance weak farm demand.

  • Regulatory and trade headwinds However, risks persist: weak North American farm demand, $110M in tariff refunds flattering results, Canada's 15–50% retaliatory tariffs on equipment, an FTC/USDA antitrust probe (shares fell 5%), and a right-to-repair settlement reducing service revenue control.

    These new negative factors are real counterweights that could pressure future results.

  • Analyst optimism with $800 target Baird's $800 target reflects optimism, but regulatory and trade headwinds remain real counterweights.

    This new analyst target shows positive sentiment but is balanced by ongoing risks.

September 2026
▲2▼2

Deere hits record on earnings, then faces Canada tariffs and a US antitrust probe

  • Record high on strong earnings and raised guidance Deere reported a strong quarter, beat profit and revenue expectations, and raised the low end of its full-year profit forecast by $250 million. Management said the farm equipment downturn may have bottomed, and an analyst upgrade pushed the stock above $700 to a record. This directly lifts DE's price because it signals the worst of the slump is over.

    This is the main new positive force behind DE's move this period.

  • Canada's retaliatory tariffs hit Deere equipment Canada imposed 15% to 50% duties on about $20 billion of US goods, including agricultural equipment, in an escalating trade fight. Deere products are directly affected, which can raise costs and reduce sales in a key market. Tariffs are a real drag on DE's price because they cut into demand and margins.

    A new tariff event that directly pressures DE's sales and costs.

  • FTC and USDA probe farm equipment practices Federal regulators opened a broad inquiry into whether Deere and rivals use market power to squeeze farmers through restrictive dealer contracts and penalties. Deere fell 5% on the news. The probe follows a right-to-repair settlement and could lead to new rules or lawsuits, which weighs on DE's price by adding legal and regulatory risk.

    A new regulatory threat that directly targets Deere and moved the stock down.

  • Analyst upgrade adds to optimism Baird upgraded Deere and set an $800 price target, about 15% above the record level, saying the farm equipment cycle is starting to recover. Upgrades bring in buyers and support the stock. This is a smaller, sentiment-driven push higher, but it reinforces the earnings-driven rally.

    It explains part of the upward move and the recovery narrative around DE.

Latest
▲2▼2

Deere hits record on earnings, then faces Canada tariffs and a US antitrust probe

  • Record high on strong earnings and raised guidance Deere reported a strong quarter, beat profit and revenue expectations, and raised the low end of its full-year profit forecast by $250 million. Management said the farm equipment downturn may have bottomed, and an analyst upgrade pushed the stock above $700 to a record. This directly lifts DE's price because it signals the worst of the slump is over.

    This is the main new positive force behind DE's move this period.

  • Canada's retaliatory tariffs hit Deere equipment Canada imposed 15% to 50% duties on about $20 billion of US goods, including agricultural equipment, in an escalating trade fight. Deere products are directly affected, which can raise costs and reduce sales in a key market. Tariffs are a real drag on DE's price because they cut into demand and margins.

    A new tariff event that directly pressures DE's sales and costs.

  • FTC and USDA probe farm equipment practices Federal regulators opened a broad inquiry into whether Deere and rivals use market power to squeeze farmers through restrictive dealer contracts and penalties. Deere fell 5% on the news. The probe follows a right-to-repair settlement and could lead to new rules or lawsuits, which weighs on DE's price by adding legal and regulatory risk.

    A new regulatory threat that directly targets Deere and moved the stock down.

  • Analyst upgrade adds to optimism Baird upgraded Deere and set an $800 price target, about 15% above the record level, saying the farm equipment cycle is starting to recover. Upgrades bring in buyers and support the stock. This is a smaller, sentiment-driven push higher, but it reinforces the earnings-driven rally.

    It explains part of the upward move and the recovery narrative around DE.

July 2026
▲3▼1

Deere's Profit Beat and Buyback Offset Farm Weakness and Repair Settlement

  • Q2 earnings beat and raised guidance Deere reported Q2 revenue of $12.61 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.10, beating estimates, with operating margin improving to 15.3% from 13%. The company also raised full-year net income guidance. This shows profit growing for the first time in three years, pushing the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly drives the stock higher.

  • New share buyback and AI efficiency investments Deere authorized a new share repurchase program and highlighted AI-enabled operational efficiency. Buybacks reduce the number of shares, which can lift earnings per share. AI investments aim to cut costs and improve margins, supporting the stock price.

    Buybacks and AI investments are new capital actions that support the investment thesis.

  • FTC right-to-repair settlement Deere settled an FTC lawsuit by agreeing to give farmers and independent repair shops the same diagnostic and repair tools as dealers for 10 years, and paying $1 million in legal fees. This reduces Deere's control over repair services, which could pressure future parts and service revenue.

    This is a new regulatory event that could hurt Deere's aftermarket business.

  • $10 million rugged AI partnership Deere partnered with Reservoir in a $10 million, three-year R&D deal to develop rugged AI for high-value crops. This boosts Deere's technology capabilities in precision agriculture, which is a key growth area and supports the stock by showing innovation.

    This new partnership reinforces Deere's tech leadership and future growth prospects.

▲3▼1

Deere's Profit Beat and Buyback Offset Farm Weakness and Repair Settlement

  • Q2 earnings beat and raised guidance Deere reported Q2 revenue of $12.61 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.10, beating estimates, with operating margin improving to 15.3% from 13%. The company also raised full-year net income guidance. This shows profit growing for the first time in three years, pushing the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly drives the stock higher.

  • New share buyback and AI efficiency investments Deere authorized a new share repurchase program and highlighted AI-enabled operational efficiency. Buybacks reduce the number of shares, which can lift earnings per share. AI investments aim to cut costs and improve margins, supporting the stock price.

    Buybacks and AI investments are new capital actions that support the investment thesis.

  • FTC right-to-repair settlement Deere settled an FTC lawsuit by agreeing to give farmers and independent repair shops the same diagnostic and repair tools as dealers for 10 years, and paying $1 million in legal fees. This reduces Deere's control over repair services, which could pressure future parts and service revenue.

    This is a new regulatory event that could hurt Deere's aftermarket business.

  • $10 million rugged AI partnership Deere partnered with Reservoir in a $10 million, three-year R&D deal to develop rugged AI for high-value crops. This boosts Deere's technology capabilities in precision agriculture, which is a key growth area and supports the stock by showing innovation.

    This new partnership reinforces Deere's tech leadership and future growth prospects.

August 2026
▲3

Deere beats Q3, raises outlook as construction offsets weak farm demand

  • Q3 beat and raised full-year profit outlook Deere reported fiscal Q3 EPS of $5.10 versus about $4.70 expected, with sales up 6% to roughly $11 billion, and raised the low end of its full-year net income guidance to $4.75–$5.00 billion. The stock jumped about 7–9% because the results showed profit growing for the first time in three years.

    This is the period's main new event and the clearest reason DE moved.

  • Construction and forestry strength, helped by AI data-center building Deere's construction and forestry sales rose 18% as data-center construction and heavy earthmoving demand stayed strong. This is important because it offsets the weak farm side: the main production and precision agriculture segment still fell 6%, so the company is leaning on construction while farming recovers.

    It explains the mix behind the beat and why investors looked past weak agriculture.

  • Management says 2026 is the bottom of the farm equipment cycle CEO John May said 2026 marks the bottom of the agricultural equipment downturn, pointing to early order trends, better used-equipment inventories, and more customer adoption of advanced technology. That supports the idea that farm demand should improve in 2027, which is why investors are willing to pay up now.

    It gives the forward-looking reason behind the raised guidance and stock move.

  • Farm demand still weak and tariff refunds flattered results The main farm equipment segment still shrank 6%, North American demand was soft, and Deere booked $110 million in tariff refunds that boosted the quarter. Rivals CNH and AGCO showed mixed conditions, so the recovery is not yet visible in industry data — a real counterweight to the upbeat guidance.

    It is the honest counterweight: the beat was partly helped by one-time items and farming remains weak.

▲3

Deere beats Q3, raises outlook as construction offsets weak farm demand

  • Q3 beat and raised full-year profit outlook Deere reported fiscal Q3 EPS of $5.10 versus about $4.70 expected, with sales up 6% to roughly $11 billion, and raised the low end of its full-year net income guidance to $4.75–$5.00 billion. The stock jumped about 7–9% because the results showed profit growing for the first time in three years.

    This is the period's main new event and the clearest reason DE moved.

  • Construction and forestry strength, helped by AI data-center building Deere's construction and forestry sales rose 18% as data-center construction and heavy earthmoving demand stayed strong. This is important because it offsets the weak farm side: the main production and precision agriculture segment still fell 6%, so the company is leaning on construction while farming recovers.

    It explains the mix behind the beat and why investors looked past weak agriculture.

  • Management says 2026 is the bottom of the farm equipment cycle CEO John May said 2026 marks the bottom of the agricultural equipment downturn, pointing to early order trends, better used-equipment inventories, and more customer adoption of advanced technology. That supports the idea that farm demand should improve in 2027, which is why investors are willing to pay up now.

    It gives the forward-looking reason behind the raised guidance and stock move.

  • Farm demand still weak and tariff refunds flattered results The main farm equipment segment still shrank 6%, North American demand was soft, and Deere booked $110 million in tariff refunds that boosted the quarter. Rivals CNH and AGCO showed mixed conditions, so the recovery is not yet visible in industry data — a real counterweight to the upbeat guidance.

    It is the honest counterweight: the beat was partly helped by one-time items and farming remains weak.