Nomura Holdings vs CITIC Securities: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Nomura Holdings, Inc. (8604.JP)

Q3 202617 Jun – 8 Oct 2026

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Nomura Q3: Record Profits, Crypto Expansion, But Risks Linger

Record earnings and profitability Nomura reported record recurring revenue of ¥59.2bn, a 15.4% return on equity, and a 39% jump in April–June net profit to ¥145.5bn, driven by a 30% surge in wholesale revenue from Tokyo equity trading.
This is the core financial performance that drove investor confidence and the stock price.
Digital asset expansion Nomura's crypto arm Laser Digital received conditional OCC approval for a US trust charter, and Nomura became Japan's first newly registered crypto exchange in four years, signaling a strategic push into digital assets.
This new business initiative opens growth opportunities and differentiates Nomura in the financial sector.
Analyst upgrades and fee income Analysts raised profit forecasts by 4.8%, and Nomura joined SoftBank's ¥1trn bond underwriting, adding fee income and reinforcing its investment banking franchise.
These developments reflect positive sentiment and additional revenue streams that support the stock.
Early-stage crypto and market dependency risks Crypto initiatives are early-stage and may take time to pay off, and the bullish Nikkei 75,000 target depends on continued rate hikes and market strength, posing downside risks if conditions change.
This provides a balanced view of potential headwinds that could impact future performance.

August 202613 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

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Nomura's profit outlook brightens on rate hikes, crypto entry, and deal fees

Profit forecast upgraded Analysts raised their profit forecast for Nomura by 4.8% in a week, now expecting a 5.2% increase from last year. This reflects growing confidence in the company's earnings, which supports a higher stock price.
Directly shows improving earnings expectations, a key driver for the stock.
Crypto exchange approval Nomura's digital asset unit became Japan's first newly registered crypto exchange in four years. This opens a new business line and positions Nomura in a growing market, potentially adding future revenue and boosting investor optimism.
New regulatory milestone expands Nomura's business into crypto, a positive growth driver.
Underwriting large bond deal Nomura is among the underwriters for SoftBank's 1 trillion yen bond sale. This generates fee income for Nomura's investment banking division, directly adding to profits and supporting the stock price.
A concrete deal that boosts Nomura's fee revenue, a positive earnings catalyst.
Bullish on rates and market Nomura's president expects the Nikkei to reach 75,000 by year-end, citing rising interest rates as positive for banks. Higher rates can boost Nomura's trading and lending income, and the optimistic market view supports the stock.
Leadership's bullish outlook on rates and the stock market signals confidence in Nomura's business environment.

Latest13 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

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Nomura's profit outlook brightens on rate hikes, crypto entry, and deal fees

Profit forecast upgraded Analysts raised their profit forecast for Nomura by 4.8% in a week, now expecting a 5.2% increase from last year. This reflects growing confidence in the company's earnings, which supports a higher stock price.
Directly shows improving earnings expectations, a key driver for the stock.
Crypto exchange approval Nomura's digital asset unit became Japan's first newly registered crypto exchange in four years. This opens a new business line and positions Nomura in a growing market, potentially adding future revenue and boosting investor optimism.
New regulatory milestone expands Nomura's business into crypto, a positive growth driver.
Underwriting large bond deal Nomura is among the underwriters for SoftBank's 1 trillion yen bond sale. This generates fee income for Nomura's investment banking division, directly adding to profits and supporting the stock price.
A concrete deal that boosts Nomura's fee revenue, a positive earnings catalyst.
Bullish on rates and market Nomura's president expects the Nikkei to reach 75,000 by year-end, citing rising interest rates as positive for banks. Higher rates can boost Nomura's trading and lending income, and the optimistic market view supports the stock.
Leadership's bullish outlook on rates and the stock market signals confidence in Nomura's business environment.

July 202617 Jun – 6 Aug 2026

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Nomura's profit surges on trading boom and digital-asset expansion

Wholesale revenue running 30% higher Nomura said wholesale revenue is up over 30% year-on-year, led by equity products, as Tokyo Stock Exchange cash-equity turnover jumped 68% in 2026. That raises the odds Nomura beats the roughly flat 2.2 trillion yen revenue consensus, lifting the shares.
This is the first signal of a strong quarter and directly drives earnings expectations.
Record recurring revenue and 15.4% ROE in Q1 Nomura reported record recurring revenue of 59.2 billion yen and a 15.4% return on equity. Wealth management net revenue rose 9% to 145.4 billion yen, with record net inflows into recurring-revenue assets. Global markets revenue jumped 26%, led by a 41% surge in equities. This shows broad-based profit strength.
It confirms the strong quarter with record recurring revenue and high ROE, a key driver of the stock.
April–June net profit up 39% to 145.5 billion yen Nomura's net profit for the April–June quarter rose 39% year-on-year to 145.5 billion yen, beating expectations. All five major Japanese brokerages posted sharp profit gains, helped by rising interest rates, higher stock prices, and strong sales of investment products. This confirms a sector-wide upcycle.
The earnings beat is the headline number that directly moves the stock and validates the positive trend.
Digital-asset push: US trust charter and ZIG partnership Nomura's Laser Digital won conditional OCC approval for a US national trust bank charter, enabling institutional crypto custody. It also invested in crypto asset ZIG and will co-develop on-chain financial products for institutions. These moves expand future revenue but are early-stage and may take time to pay off.
It shows a new growth avenue in digital assets, though with longer-term impact.

17 Jun – 6 Aug 2026

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Nomura's profit surges on trading boom and digital-asset expansion

Wholesale revenue running 30% higher Nomura said wholesale revenue is up over 30% year-on-year, led by equity products, as Tokyo Stock Exchange cash-equity turnover jumped 68% in 2026. That raises the odds Nomura beats the roughly flat 2.2 trillion yen revenue consensus, lifting the shares.
This is the first signal of a strong quarter and directly drives earnings expectations.
Record recurring revenue and 15.4% ROE in Q1 Nomura reported record recurring revenue of 59.2 billion yen and a 15.4% return on equity. Wealth management net revenue rose 9% to 145.4 billion yen, with record net inflows into recurring-revenue assets. Global markets revenue jumped 26%, led by a 41% surge in equities. This shows broad-based profit strength.
It confirms the strong quarter with record recurring revenue and high ROE, a key driver of the stock.
April–June net profit up 39% to 145.5 billion yen Nomura's net profit for the April–June quarter rose 39% year-on-year to 145.5 billion yen, beating expectations. All five major Japanese brokerages posted sharp profit gains, helped by rising interest rates, higher stock prices, and strong sales of investment products. This confirms a sector-wide upcycle.
The earnings beat is the headline number that directly moves the stock and validates the positive trend.
Digital-asset push: US trust charter and ZIG partnership Nomura's Laser Digital won conditional OCC approval for a US national trust bank charter, enabling institutional crypto custody. It also invested in crypto asset ZIG and will co-develop on-chain financial products for institutions. These moves expand future revenue but are early-stage and may take time to pay off.
It shows a new growth avenue in digital assets, though with longer-term impact.

CITIC Securities Co Ltd (600030.CG)

Q3 20263 Jul – 9 Sep 2026

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Record earnings and deal wins offset by regulatory risks

Record first-half profit CITIC Securities reported record first-half 2026 net profit of 23.3 billion yuan, up 69.6% year-on-year, with all business lines contributing and a 55% dividend increase.
This is the main positive driver of the stock's performance in the period.
Leadership in major IPOs The firm led underwriting for mega-IPOs like China Resources New Energy and Unitree, and was named advisor for DeepSeek's planned STAR Market listing, reinforcing its franchise.
This highlights the company's strong deal flow and market position, supporting the stock.
Regulatory tightening on margin lending Regulators tightened margin lending rules after new margin accounts jumped 60%, which could cool trading activity and reduce margin-related revenue.
This is a key regulatory risk that could negatively impact the stock.
IPO backstop practice risks Its IPO backstop practice can distort pricing and mask true demand, potentially inflating valuations over time, posing a risk to its underwriting business.
This is a counterweight that could undermine the sustainability of its deal success.

August 202610 Aug – 9 Sep 2026

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Record profit, big dividends and IPO wins drive CITIC Securities higher

Record first-half profit and bigger dividend CITIC Securities reported first-half net profit of 23.3 billion yuan, up 69.6% year on year — its best ever — on revenue up 50%. Every business grew, and the interim dividend rose 55% to 4.27 yuan per 10 shares. Strong earnings and more cash returned to shareholders support the share price.
This is the single biggest new fact about the company's earnings power and shareholder returns.
Underwriting and advisory fees from Unitree and DeepSeek CITIC Securities earned over 140 million yuan in fees as sole sponsor of Unitree's IPO and also holds shares in it. It was then picked as financial advisor for DeepSeek's planned STAR Market listing, which could be valued at up to $75 billion. These deals add fee income and show its leading position in tech listings.
New IPO mandates are concrete, recurring revenue drivers that strengthen the investment-banking story.
Regulators tighten margin lending rules After new margin accounts jumped 60% in the first half, authorities pushed brokers including CITIC Securities to screen clients more strictly and limit extra borrowing for some. This can cool trading activity and reduce margin-related revenue, a real counterweight to the strong results.
It is the main regulatory risk that could offset the positive earnings and IPO news.

Latest10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026

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Record profit, big dividends and IPO wins drive CITIC Securities higher

Record first-half profit and bigger dividend CITIC Securities reported first-half net profit of 23.3 billion yuan, up 69.6% year on year — its best ever — on revenue up 50%. Every business grew, and the interim dividend rose 55% to 4.27 yuan per 10 shares. Strong earnings and more cash returned to shareholders support the share price.
This is the single biggest new fact about the company's earnings power and shareholder returns.
Underwriting and advisory fees from Unitree and DeepSeek CITIC Securities earned over 140 million yuan in fees as sole sponsor of Unitree's IPO and also holds shares in it. It was then picked as financial advisor for DeepSeek's planned STAR Market listing, which could be valued at up to $75 billion. These deals add fee income and show its leading position in tech listings.
New IPO mandates are concrete, recurring revenue drivers that strengthen the investment-banking story.
Regulators tighten margin lending rules After new margin accounts jumped 60% in the first half, authorities pushed brokers including CITIC Securities to screen clients more strictly and limit extra borrowing for some. This can cool trading activity and reduce margin-related revenue, a real counterweight to the strong results.
It is the main regulatory risk that could offset the positive earnings and IPO news.

July 20263 Jul – 4 Aug 2026

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CITIC Securities rides record profit and underwriting boom

Record first-half profit surge CITIC Securities expects first-half net profit of 23.343 billion yuan, up 69.59% year-on-year, a record for the period. The company credits a stable, active market and strong performance across all business lines. This directly boosts earnings and supports a higher share price.
This is the single biggest new fundamental driver of the stock's value.
Brokerage industry-wide earnings boom Twenty of 21 listed brokers reported positive first-half forecasts, with CITIC leading at over 23.3 billion yuan. A-share trading volume jumped 95% year-on-year, lifting brokerage and trading revenue. Sector strength pulls CITIC's shares up with the group.
Shows the profit surge is part of a broad industry upcycle, not a one-off.
Underwriting windfalls from mega-IPOs CITIC earned fees as lead underwriter for Shenzhen's largest-ever IPO (China Resources New Energy, 24 billion yuan) and is sponsoring Unitree's Shanghai IPO, expected to value the robot maker above 50 billion yuan. These deals add incremental profit and reinforce its franchise strength.
New underwriting mandates provide a concrete, recurring revenue boost.
Underwriting backstop distorts pricing CITIC must buy abandoned IPO shares, which can suppress first-day gains and mask true demand. While profitable now, this practice may push issuance valuations too high over time, creating long-term risk for underwriters and the market.
A real counterweight: the underwriting profit source carries hidden pricing risks.

3 Jul – 4 Aug 2026

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CITIC Securities rides record profit and underwriting boom

Record first-half profit surge CITIC Securities expects first-half net profit of 23.343 billion yuan, up 69.59% year-on-year, a record for the period. The company credits a stable, active market and strong performance across all business lines. This directly boosts earnings and supports a higher share price.
This is the single biggest new fundamental driver of the stock's value.
Brokerage industry-wide earnings boom Twenty of 21 listed brokers reported positive first-half forecasts, with CITIC leading at over 23.3 billion yuan. A-share trading volume jumped 95% year-on-year, lifting brokerage and trading revenue. Sector strength pulls CITIC's shares up with the group.
Shows the profit surge is part of a broad industry upcycle, not a one-off.
Underwriting windfalls from mega-IPOs CITIC earned fees as lead underwriter for Shenzhen's largest-ever IPO (China Resources New Energy, 24 billion yuan) and is sponsoring Unitree's Shanghai IPO, expected to value the robot maker above 50 billion yuan. These deals add incremental profit and reinforce its franchise strength.
New underwriting mandates provide a concrete, recurring revenue boost.
Underwriting backstop distorts pricing CITIC must buy abandoned IPO shares, which can suppress first-day gains and mask true demand. While profitable now, this practice may push issuance valuations too high over time, creating long-term risk for underwriters and the market.
A real counterweight: the underwriting profit source carries hidden pricing risks.