← Asia Aviation overview

Asia Aviation vs Thai Airways International: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited (AAV.BK)

Q3 2026
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AAV hit by fuel, parent risk, exit fee; offset by demand

  • Record fuel costs drive Q2 loss Jet fuel hit a record $183 per barrel, causing a 2.33 billion baht Q2 loss. Cost cuts and higher fares only covered half the extra fuel bill, squeezing profits.

    This is the main reason for the quarterly loss and directly impacts AAV's profitability.

  • Parent AirAsia collapse risk threatens receivables Krungsri Securities warned that parent AirAsia's potential collapse could turn 7–8 billion baht of related-party receivables into bad debt and cost AAV network benefits.

    This is a new risk that could lead to significant write-offs and loss of synergies.

  • New exit fee and floods add pressure Thailand's new 1,000-baht exit fee hits AAV hardest as a low-cost short-haul carrier. Floods and Kasikorn's up-to-91% profit forecast cuts add further pressure.

    These are new regulatory and environmental factors that increase costs and reduce demand.

  • Weak baht and tourism recovery boost demand A weak baht and China tourism recovery support demand. Strong Q4 high-season demand with 80%+ load factors and Golden Week Phuket bookings up 78% offset some negatives.

    These factors provide a positive counterbalance to the negative drivers, supporting revenue.

September 2026
▲2▼2

AAV faces mixed forces: high-season demand vs. new exit fee and flood drag

  • New 1,000-baht exit fee hits AAV hardest Thailand revived a 1,000-baht departure fee collected through airline tickets. DBS Vickers ranks AAV as most affected because it is a low-cost short-haul carrier, with round-trip fares to Malaysia and Vietnam set to rise 15-25%. This could reduce demand for its flights and pressure the stock.

    This is a new regulatory cost that directly threatens AAV's core short-haul demand and pricing.

  • Q4 high season and China Golden Week boost demand AAV expects Q4 results to accelerate with load factor near 80%+ and over 50 of 60 aircraft ready. Trip.com reports China-Phuket Golden Week flight bookings up 78% year-on-year, signaling stronger Chinese travel demand that benefits AAV's flights.

    These are new demand signals showing a seasonal upswing that can lift revenue and profits.

  • November bond repayment plan eases refinancing risk AAV says it has a new bond issue, bank credit lines, and aircraft sale-and-leaseback ready to repay 1.5 billion baht of bonds due in November. This reduces fears of a cash crunch and supports the stock by lowering default risk.

    It directly addresses a key liquidity worry that had been weighing on AAV's shares.

  • Floods and analyst downgrades add pressure DBS Vickers named AAV among tourism stocks hurt by Thai floods, and Kasikorn Securities cut 2026-2028 profit forecasts by up to 91% and lowered its target price to 0.87 baht. These reflect weaker near-term demand and higher fuel costs.

    These are new negative assessments that lower earnings expectations and investor sentiment.

Latest
▲2▼2

AAV faces mixed forces: high-season demand vs. new exit fee and flood drag

  • New 1,000-baht exit fee hits AAV hardest Thailand revived a 1,000-baht departure fee collected through airline tickets. DBS Vickers ranks AAV as most affected because it is a low-cost short-haul carrier, with round-trip fares to Malaysia and Vietnam set to rise 15-25%. This could reduce demand for its flights and pressure the stock.

    This is a new regulatory cost that directly threatens AAV's core short-haul demand and pricing.

  • Q4 high season and China Golden Week boost demand AAV expects Q4 results to accelerate with load factor near 80%+ and over 50 of 60 aircraft ready. Trip.com reports China-Phuket Golden Week flight bookings up 78% year-on-year, signaling stronger Chinese travel demand that benefits AAV's flights.

    These are new demand signals showing a seasonal upswing that can lift revenue and profits.

  • November bond repayment plan eases refinancing risk AAV says it has a new bond issue, bank credit lines, and aircraft sale-and-leaseback ready to repay 1.5 billion baht of bonds due in November. This reduces fears of a cash crunch and supports the stock by lowering default risk.

    It directly addresses a key liquidity worry that had been weighing on AAV's shares.

  • Floods and analyst downgrades add pressure DBS Vickers named AAV among tourism stocks hurt by Thai floods, and Kasikorn Securities cut 2026-2028 profit forecasts by up to 91% and lowered its target price to 0.87 baht. These reflect weaker near-term demand and higher fuel costs.

    These are new negative assessments that lower earnings expectations and investor sentiment.

August 2026
▼2▲1

AAV swings to big Q2 loss on fuel; AirAsia parent risk adds pressure

  • Q2 loss on record fuel costs AAV posted a 2.33 billion baht net loss in Q2 2026 as jet fuel hit a record $183 a barrel. It cut seats 13% and raised fares 27%, but that covered only half the extra fuel bill. Management expects a Q4 profit.

    This is the single biggest new fact about AAV's earnings and the main reason the stock is under pressure.

  • AirAsia parent collapse risk Krungsri Securities advised against AAV, warning that if parent AirAsia collapses, 7-8 billion baht of overdue related-party receivables could become bad debt. AAV could also lose group network and aircraft-buying benefits. Malaysia is already planning route takeovers.

    This is a new, specific risk to AAV's balance sheet and competitive position that directly weighs on the share price.

  • Weak baht and China tourism boost A weaker baht (33.16 per dollar) makes Thailand cheaper for foreign tourists, helping airlines like AAV. The prime minister's China visit also aims to lift Chinese arrivals to 5.13 million in 2026, supporting flight demand.

    These are new demand-side supports that can offset some of the fuel and parent-company negatives.

  • AirAsia founder says demand strong, fuel manageable Tony Fernandes said travel demand remains strong and higher fuel costs are far less severe than during COVID, with ticket-price hikes planned to offset them. This offers some reassurance, but the parent's financial problems and fuel surge are still unresolved.

    It is the latest management comment on the two biggest overhangs, giving a counterweight but not clearing the risks.

▼2▲1

AAV swings to big Q2 loss on fuel; AirAsia parent risk adds pressure

  • Q2 loss on record fuel costs AAV posted a 2.33 billion baht net loss in Q2 2026 as jet fuel hit a record $183 a barrel. It cut seats 13% and raised fares 27%, but that covered only half the extra fuel bill. Management expects a Q4 profit.

    This is the single biggest new fact about AAV's earnings and the main reason the stock is under pressure.

  • AirAsia parent collapse risk Krungsri Securities advised against AAV, warning that if parent AirAsia collapses, 7-8 billion baht of overdue related-party receivables could become bad debt. AAV could also lose group network and aircraft-buying benefits. Malaysia is already planning route takeovers.

    This is a new, specific risk to AAV's balance sheet and competitive position that directly weighs on the share price.

  • Weak baht and China tourism boost A weaker baht (33.16 per dollar) makes Thailand cheaper for foreign tourists, helping airlines like AAV. The prime minister's China visit also aims to lift Chinese arrivals to 5.13 million in 2026, supporting flight demand.

    These are new demand-side supports that can offset some of the fuel and parent-company negatives.

  • AirAsia founder says demand strong, fuel manageable Tony Fernandes said travel demand remains strong and higher fuel costs are far less severe than during COVID, with ticket-price hikes planned to offset them. This offers some reassurance, but the parent's financial problems and fuel surge are still unresolved.

    It is the latest management comment on the two biggest overhangs, giving a counterweight but not clearing the risks.

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI.BK)

Latest
▼3▲1

Flood chaos hits flights, cargo; CEO ousted, but recovery and MRO deal emerge

  • Flood-driven staff shortage forces flight cuts and baggage chaos Bangkok flooding left Thai Airways short of ground staff, delaying nearly all flights, stranding thousands of bags, and forcing it to cancel about 30% of Bangkok departures and 59 flights. This directly hits peak-season revenue and adds compensation costs, weighing on profit and the share price.

    This is the core new operational shock that explains the stock's weakness this period.

  • Cargo warehouse suspended, 12,000 tons backlogged Thai Airways halted inbound and outbound cargo at its Suvarnabhumi warehouse for six days, creating a 12,000-ton backlog and drawing government pressure. Cargo is a profit source, so this disruption adds to the earnings hit and reputational damage.

    It shows the flood impact spreading beyond passengers into cargo, a second new negative force.

  • Board ousts CEO Chai, opens investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri and appointed an acting chief pending a fact-finding probe into crisis management. Leadership uncertainty can weigh on the stock until a permanent CEO and strategy are clear, though a fresh start could eventually help.

    This is a major new governance event that adds uncertainty and explains negative sentiment.

  • Operations recover; U-Tapao MRO deal signed Thai Airways restored full flights by October 3 and cleared most bags, while brokers see limited profit impact and a fourth-quarter high-season recovery. It also signed a 10-billion-baht U-Tapao maintenance centre lease, a long-term growth project.

    This is the main new counterweight showing the disruption is temporary and long-term plans remain on track.

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Thai Airways Q3 mixed: profit trough, but fuel, lock-up, floods weigh

  • Q2 profit trough and core earnings beat Q2 marked the profit trough, with core earnings beating expectations on higher fares and cargo revenue. This suggests the worst may be over, supporting recovery hopes.

    It signals a potential turning point in profitability, a key driver for the stock.

  • Lower oil prices and broker upgrades Lower oil prices and broker upgrades (KKPS Buy, 9.20 baht target) provided support. Fleet expansion under Jump+ plan and FTSE Small Cap inclusion also boosted sentiment.

    These factors directly improve cost outlook and investor perception, driving price.

  • Q2 profit plunge and share lock-up expiry Q2 profit plunged 87% on doubled jet fuel costs and weak demand. The expiry of a 19.8bn-share lock-up created heavy selling pressure, weighing on the stock.

    These are major negative events that pressured the stock price during the quarter.

  • Bangkok flooding and CEO suspension Bangkok flooding caused cancellations, a 12,000-ton cargo backlog, and 30% capacity cuts. The CEO's suspension adds leadership uncertainty, further dampening investor confidence.

    Operational disruptions and management instability are significant negative drivers.

September 2026
▲2▼2

Thai Airways: FTSE boost, flood disruptions, CEO suspended

  • FTSE Small Cap inclusion and winter schedule expansion Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index and expanded its winter schedule to 998 weekly flights. Strong bookings with an 85% cabin factor support its 200 billion baht revenue target.

    This point highlights the positive operational and market developments that drove investor sentiment during the period.

  • Bangkok flooding causes flight cancellations and cargo backlog Severe flooding in Bangkok forced dozens of flight cancellations, stranded over 5,600 bags, cut capacity by 30%, and suspended cargo operations with a 12,000-ton backlog, disrupting operations.

    This point captures the major operational disruption that negatively impacted the airline's performance during the period.

  • CEO suspended pending investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri pending an investigation, creating leadership uncertainty and potentially affecting strategic execution and investor confidence.

    This point addresses the governance and leadership risk that emerged during the period.

  • Brokers recommend gradual accumulation on cheap valuation Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a cheap 6.9x 2027 P/E, a 7.56 baht target, lower fuel costs, and expected high-season earnings recovery, despite recent disruptions.

    This point shows analyst optimism and the factors that could drive future price recovery.

▲3

Thai Airways: index inclusion, winter schedule, and bookings offset fuel cost pressure

  • FTSE Small Cap inclusion draws index-tracking buyers Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index effective September 18-21, 2026. Funds that track the index must buy the stock, creating steady demand. This is a one-time technical event that can lift the share price as new buyers step in.

    This is a new, concrete event that directly increases demand for THAI shares.

  • Winter schedule adds flights and routes, boosting revenue outlook Thai Airways launched its winter 2026/2027 schedule with 998 weekly flights across 66 routes, including a new Bangkok-Da Nang service and more flights to Europe. More flights mean more revenue, supporting the company's 200 billion baht full-year target.

    This is a new operational expansion that directly supports future revenue and earnings.

  • Strong bookings and 85% cabin factor signal resilient demand KGI Securities said 3Q69 bookings grew year on year, helped by a European route recovery and an 85% cabin factor. The fourth quarter is expected to grow with the tourism season. This shows demand is holding up despite high fuel costs, supporting earnings.

    This is new analyst evidence that passenger demand remains strong, a key driver of profit.

  • CEO search adds uncertainty but also a chance for fresh strategy Thai Airways opened applications for a new CEO to succeed Chai Eamsiri, whose term ends in January 2027. The new leader must handle 80 billion baht in debenture debt and a 55-aircraft order plan. Uncertainty over leadership can weigh on the stock, but a strong new CEO could improve execution.

    This is a new governance event that could affect investor confidence and future strategy.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

  • Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.

    This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.

  • Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.

    It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.

  • Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.

    It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.

  • KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

▲3▼1

Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

  • Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.

    This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.

  • Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.

    It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.

  • Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.

    It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.

  • KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

July 2026
▲2▼2

THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

  • Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.

    Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.

  • 19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.

    This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.

  • U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.

    New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.

  • Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.

    Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.

▲2▼2

THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

  • Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.

    Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.

  • 19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.

    This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.

  • U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.

    New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.

  • Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.

    Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.