← Archer-Daniels-Midland overview

Archer-Daniels-Midland vs Soybean Meal Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

Q3 2026
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ADM Q3: Strong Earnings, But Biofuel Waiver Risk Weighs

  • Q2 Profit Surge and Raised Guidance ADM's Q2 profit jumped to $908 million, and full-year earnings guidance was raised to $5.15–$5.60 per share, signaling strong business momentum.

    This is the core positive event that drove investor optimism during the period.

  • Broad-Based Segment Growth Ag Services profit rose 26% on strong China exports, Nutrition grew 42%, and oilseed crushing profit soared 129%, showing strength across key divisions.

    These segment results explain the operational drivers behind the earnings beat.

  • Cost Savings and Expansion Investment ADM achieved $500–$750 million in cost savings and invested $100 million in crushing expansion, supporting future growth and efficiency.

    These actions underpin the company's ability to sustain profitability and growth.

  • Biofuel Waiver Risk and Share Decline Shares fell 7.7% on concerns over near-term expansion costs and policy uncertainty, especially the EPA's expected doubling of small-refinery biofuel waivers that could cut ethanol and soybean oil demand.

    This is the main negative force that tempered the positive earnings and pressured the stock.

August 2026
▲2▼1

ADM lifts outlook on crushing, ethanol, flavors; EPA waivers pose risk

  • ADM raises 2026 profit outlook ADM raised its 2026 profit outlook to $5.15–$5.60 per share, driven by a 129% jump in oilseed crushing profit, 22% higher Carbohydrate Solutions earnings on ethanol strength, and Flavors growth (up 51%).

    This is the central new development that directly boosts investor confidence and the stock's outlook.

  • ADM plans $100 million crushing expansion ADM plans $100 million in crushing expansion, targets $500–$750 million in cost savings, and is sharpening operations via a new COO and an amino acid joint venture.

    These strategic moves signal future growth and efficiency, supporting the bullish case.

  • EPA biofuel waivers threaten margins The EPA's expected doubling of small-refinery biofuel waivers could cut ethanol and soybean oil demand, squeezing ADM's margins.

    This is a key regulatory risk that could undermine ADM's biofuel-related profits.

Latest
▲4

ADM's profit outlook surges on biofuel and oilseed strength

  • Earnings estimates and guidance keep climbing Analysts raised 2026 earnings estimates, and ADM lifted its own full-year profit forecast to $5.15–$5.60 a share from $4.15–$4.70, citing finalized biofuel rules, trade and energy prices. Higher expected profit makes the stock more attractive to investors.

    This is the core new reason ADM's price is being pushed up: a sharply higher profit outlook.

  • Oilseed crushing and ethanol profits jump Oilseeds operating profit more than doubled, up 129%, on nearly 5% higher processing volumes and strong soybean meal demand from pork and poultry. Carbohydrate Solutions profit rose 22% on ethanol strength. These are the businesses generating the higher earnings.

    It shows the real operating engine behind the raised outlook, not just analyst optimism.

  • Human Nutrition and Flavors become a growth engine ADM's Flavors business is driving Human Nutrition, with segment operating profit up 51% to $139 million and flavors sales growing about 20% a year in Europe and Asia. This adds a faster-growing, higher-margin business alongside commodity processing.

    It is a new, durable profit driver that supports the bull case beyond biofuel and crush.

  • New COO and amino acid joint venture sharpen operations ADM created a Chief Operating Officer role, appointing Jeff Rowe to improve execution, and agreed to put its Decatur feed-grade amino acid plant into a joint venture with CJ CheilJedang, securing long-term supply and expanding fermentation. Both aim to make operations more efficient and resilient.

    These are new structural moves that could improve execution and future earnings, supporting the stock.

▲3▼1

ADM's biofuel-driven profit surge meets a regulatory threat

  • ADM raises 2026 profit outlook on strong biofuel and crush results ADM lifted its 2026 earnings forecast to $5.15–$5.60 a share from $4.15–$4.70 after a strong quarter, with segment profit up 75% and oilseed crushing profit up 129%. Higher expected profit makes the stock more attractive to investors.

    This is the core positive force behind ADM's price right now.

  • EPA biofuel waiver expansion threatens ethanol demand The EPA delayed a compliance deadline and is expected to roughly double small-refinery biofuel waivers, which would free up credits and cut demand for ethanol and soybean oil. That would squeeze ADM's ethanol and oilseed margins, a real counterweight to the profit surge.

    This is the main risk pulling ADM's price down and balances the positive news.

  • ADM invests $100 million to expand US oilseed crushing ADM will spend about $100 million to add 700,000 tons of crush capacity at four plants by 2028–2029, within its existing budget. The expansion signals confidence in strong crushing demand and supports future earnings growth.

    Shows management is putting money behind the strong crush results, supporting the stock.

  • ADM targets $500–$750 million in cost savings ADM aims to cut $500–$750 million in costs over three to five years through efficiency and portfolio simplification, having already saved $200 million in 2025. Lower costs would boost profit and support the earnings outlook.

    A new plan that improves profitability and adds to the positive story.

July 2026
▲3

ADM's profit surges on strong exports and cost cuts, but expansion raises valuation concerns

  • Q2 profit surges to $908 million, full-year guidance raised ADM reported second-quarter net income of $908 million, up from $219 million a year earlier, with revenue rising 7.2% to $22.7 billion. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60, signaling confidence in continued earnings growth.

    This is the latest earnings result and directly shows the company's strong financial performance, which supports a higher stock price.

  • Ag Services profit jumps 26% on strong exports to China Ag Services operating profit rose 26% to $200 million, driven by higher soybean and sorghum shipments to China and robust U.S. corn exports. This improvement, after a weak prior-year quarter, shows ADM's core trading and logistics business is recovering.

    This explains a key driver of ADM's earnings growth and highlights the company's ability to benefit from global trade flows.

  • Cost savings and Nutrition growth boost earnings outlook ADM is on track for $500–$750 million in cost savings over three to five years through automation and efficiency. Its Nutrition segment profit rose 42% year over year, with management expecting further growth in 2026.

    These initiatives improve profitability and support long-term earnings growth, which can lift the stock price.

  • Oilseed crush expansion and new COO hire trigger 7.7% share drop ADM announced a major North American oilseed crush expansion and hired a new COO, but shares fell 7.7% as investors worried about near-term costs and policy risks. The expansion aims to meet renewable fuel demand but adds uncertainty.

    This shows a recent negative market reaction to strategic investments, highlighting a counterweight to the positive earnings news.

▲3

ADM's profit surges on strong exports and cost cuts, but expansion raises valuation concerns

  • Q2 profit surges to $908 million, full-year guidance raised ADM reported second-quarter net income of $908 million, up from $219 million a year earlier, with revenue rising 7.2% to $22.7 billion. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60, signaling confidence in continued earnings growth.

    This is the latest earnings result and directly shows the company's strong financial performance, which supports a higher stock price.

  • Ag Services profit jumps 26% on strong exports to China Ag Services operating profit rose 26% to $200 million, driven by higher soybean and sorghum shipments to China and robust U.S. corn exports. This improvement, after a weak prior-year quarter, shows ADM's core trading and logistics business is recovering.

    This explains a key driver of ADM's earnings growth and highlights the company's ability to benefit from global trade flows.

  • Cost savings and Nutrition growth boost earnings outlook ADM is on track for $500–$750 million in cost savings over three to five years through automation and efficiency. Its Nutrition segment profit rose 42% year over year, with management expecting further growth in 2026.

    These initiatives improve profitability and support long-term earnings growth, which can lift the stock price.

  • Oilseed crush expansion and new COO hire trigger 7.7% share drop ADM announced a major North American oilseed crush expansion and hired a new COO, but shares fell 7.7% as investors worried about near-term costs and policy risks. The expansion aims to meet renewable fuel demand but adds uncertainty.

    This shows a recent negative market reaction to strategic investments, highlighting a counterweight to the positive earnings news.

Soybean Meal Futures (SOYMEAL.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, China demand, and record crop outlook

  • Dry July weather and strong export demand Early in the quarter, dry July weather and strong export demand, including large Chinese purchases, lifted soymeal prices.

    This explains the early price support from weather and demand.

  • Late-July selloff on crude oil and speculative positions A late-July broad selloff, triggered by falling crude oil and heavy speculative long positions, pressured the soy complex.

    This identifies a key negative force during the quarter.

  • Record U.S. crop and weak export sales From August through early October, favorable Midwest weather and forecasts for a record U.S. soybean crop weighed on prices, as did weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply.

    This highlights the main bearish factors that kept prices rangebound.

  • Continued Chinese buying and slipping crop ratings Offsetting bearish factors, continued Chinese buying and slipping—though still adequate—crop condition ratings provided support, keeping soymeal prices rangebound.

    This shows the counterweight that prevented further declines.

August 2026
▼2▲1

Weather, Big Crops and Chinese Buying Keep Soymeal Choppy

  • Favorable weather and big crop forecasts weigh on prices Rain across Midwest growing states and forecasts for a large US soybean crop (53 bushels per acre, 4.47 billion bushels) point to ample supply. More soybeans mean more soymeal, which pushes prices down.

    This is the main supply-side force pushing soymeal lower during the period.

  • China's purchases of US soybeans support prices China bought 488,000 metric tons of US soybeans and later another 340,000 metric tons, signaling strong demand. When a big buyer steps in, it lifts soybean and soymeal prices.

    Chinese demand is a key positive force for soymeal prices.

  • Crop condition ratings slip but remain adequate US soybean condition ratings fell from 65% to 58% good-to-excellent over the period, with declines in key states. Worse crop health can trim supply and support prices, but ratings are still not disastrous.

    This shows a counterweight to the big-crop narrative, adding uncertainty to supply.

  • Weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply US soymeal sales of 114,733 metric tons missed expectations, and Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly. More South American soybeans and soft US meal demand add pressure to soymeal prices.

    This highlights demand weakness and global supply competition weighing on soymeal.

Latest
▼2▲1

Weather, Big Crops and Chinese Buying Keep Soymeal Choppy

  • Favorable weather and big crop forecasts weigh on prices Rain across Midwest growing states and forecasts for a large US soybean crop (53 bushels per acre, 4.47 billion bushels) point to ample supply. More soybeans mean more soymeal, which pushes prices down.

    This is the main supply-side force pushing soymeal lower during the period.

  • China's purchases of US soybeans support prices China bought 488,000 metric tons of US soybeans and later another 340,000 metric tons, signaling strong demand. When a big buyer steps in, it lifts soybean and soymeal prices.

    Chinese demand is a key positive force for soymeal prices.

  • Crop condition ratings slip but remain adequate US soybean condition ratings fell from 65% to 58% good-to-excellent over the period, with declines in key states. Worse crop health can trim supply and support prices, but ratings are still not disastrous.

    This shows a counterweight to the big-crop narrative, adding uncertainty to supply.

  • Weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply US soymeal sales of 114,733 metric tons missed expectations, and Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly. More South American soybeans and soft US meal demand add pressure to soymeal prices.

    This highlights demand weakness and global supply competition weighing on soymeal.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, export demand, then broad selloff

  • Dry July weather lifted soy complex Forecasts for a dry start to July in key U.S. growing areas raised concerns about the soybean crop, pushing soybean and soymeal futures higher. Less rain can shrink the crop, tightening supply and supporting soymeal prices.

    Weather is a major supply force that pushed soymeal up early in the period.

  • Strong export demand for soybeans and meal U.S. soybean export sales hit multi-week and marketing-year highs, with big purchases from China and unknown destinations. Soymeal sales also stayed within trade estimates. Strong demand for beans supports soymeal because meal is a key product made from crushing soybeans.

    Export demand is a core demand driver that supported soymeal prices.

  • Late-July broad selloff in soy complex Soybean and soymeal futures plunged as crude oil tumbled and speculative traders held a large net long position, triggering a wave of selling. A sharp drop in energy prices can reduce demand for soy-based biofuels, adding pressure to the whole soy complex.

    This was the period's biggest price-moving event, dragging soymeal sharply lower.

  • China to auction state soybean reserves China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans. If the auction supplies the market, it could reduce China's near-term demand for imported U.S. soybeans, softening demand for soymeal and weighing on prices.

    This new supply event could reduce demand for U.S. soybeans and soymeal.

▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, export demand, then broad selloff

  • Dry July weather lifted soy complex Forecasts for a dry start to July in key U.S. growing areas raised concerns about the soybean crop, pushing soybean and soymeal futures higher. Less rain can shrink the crop, tightening supply and supporting soymeal prices.

    Weather is a major supply force that pushed soymeal up early in the period.

  • Strong export demand for soybeans and meal U.S. soybean export sales hit multi-week and marketing-year highs, with big purchases from China and unknown destinations. Soymeal sales also stayed within trade estimates. Strong demand for beans supports soymeal because meal is a key product made from crushing soybeans.

    Export demand is a core demand driver that supported soymeal prices.

  • Late-July broad selloff in soy complex Soybean and soymeal futures plunged as crude oil tumbled and speculative traders held a large net long position, triggering a wave of selling. A sharp drop in energy prices can reduce demand for soy-based biofuels, adding pressure to the whole soy complex.

    This was the period's biggest price-moving event, dragging soymeal sharply lower.

  • China to auction state soybean reserves China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans. If the auction supplies the market, it could reduce China's near-term demand for imported U.S. soybeans, softening demand for soymeal and weighing on prices.

    This new supply event could reduce demand for U.S. soybeans and soymeal.