Amentum vs Verisk Analytics: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)

Q3 202630 Jun – 7 Oct 2026

▲2▼2

Amentum wins big contracts but revenue misses and NASA cuts weigh

Major contract wins Amentum won NASA's COSMOS contract, joined a UK defence framework with Babcock, and secured nuclear deals including a $2.78 billion Sellafield framework and a Texas waste pilot, boosting its long-term backlog.
These new contracts are a key positive force for the stock this quarter.
Profit beat and analyst upgrade Profit beat guidance and an analyst upgrade to Neutral lifted sentiment, showing the company can manage costs even as revenue falls short.
This sentiment boost is a new positive driver for the quarter.
Revenue misses and NASA workforce cut Q2 and Q3 revenue missed expectations, and NASA's workforce directive will cut 2027 revenue by about 3%, raising concerns about near-term growth.
These are new negative developments that pressured the stock.
Weak core growth and high valuation Core growth is weak—just 1.1% annually over four years with a 2.1% free cash flow margin—and analysts expect only 1.5% growth ahead, leaving limited upside despite contract wins.
This fundamental weakness explains the stock's poor performance and cautious outlook.

August 202621 Jul – 7 Oct 2026

▲2▼1

Amentum's weak core results offset by nuclear contract wins and an upgrade

Weak revenue growth and cash flow weigh on the stock Amentum's revenue has barely grown — about 1.1% a year over four years — and its free cash flow margin averaged just 2.1%, leaving little money to reinvest. That weak core performance drove a 40.9% share price drop over six months, and analysts expect only 1.5% growth ahead.
This is the central fundamental problem behind AMTM's decline and the backdrop for everything else.
Q3 earnings: profit beat, but revenue missed Amentum reported Q3 revenue of $3.49 billion, down 2% from a year earlier and below expectations, while earnings per share of $0.67 beat the $0.63 estimate. Both business segments beat on adjusted EBITDA, but the revenue shortfall sent shares down 6% and left the company the weakest performer among government consulting peers.
The quarter is the period's key hard number: profit beat but shrinking revenue is the mixed signal driving sentiment.
Nuclear contract wins deepen long-term revenue base Amentum's joint venture OneAxIoM was named preferred supplier on a $2.78 billion Sellafield nuclear asset-care framework with a nine-year term, and Amentum joined a Texas nuclear waste disposal pilot that received a drilling permit. These long-duration nuclear deals could broaden revenue and support the company's growth story.
These are the main new positive catalysts, showing where future revenue could come from.
Analyst upgrade gives a modest sentiment lift BNP Paribas Exane upgraded Amentum to Neutral, and the stock rose 3%. It is a small positive, but an upgrade to merely Neutral shows analysts still see limited upside after the weak results and slow growth.
The upgrade is the period's only clear positive price reaction and shows sentiment stabilizing, though only slightly.

Latest21 Jul – 7 Oct 2026

▲2▼1

Amentum's weak core results offset by nuclear contract wins and an upgrade

Weak revenue growth and cash flow weigh on the stock Amentum's revenue has barely grown — about 1.1% a year over four years — and its free cash flow margin averaged just 2.1%, leaving little money to reinvest. That weak core performance drove a 40.9% share price drop over six months, and analysts expect only 1.5% growth ahead.
This is the central fundamental problem behind AMTM's decline and the backdrop for everything else.
Q3 earnings: profit beat, but revenue missed Amentum reported Q3 revenue of $3.49 billion, down 2% from a year earlier and below expectations, while earnings per share of $0.67 beat the $0.63 estimate. Both business segments beat on adjusted EBITDA, but the revenue shortfall sent shares down 6% and left the company the weakest performer among government consulting peers.
The quarter is the period's key hard number: profit beat but shrinking revenue is the mixed signal driving sentiment.
Nuclear contract wins deepen long-term revenue base Amentum's joint venture OneAxIoM was named preferred supplier on a $2.78 billion Sellafield nuclear asset-care framework with a nine-year term, and Amentum joined a Texas nuclear waste disposal pilot that received a drilling permit. These long-duration nuclear deals could broaden revenue and support the company's growth story.
These are the main new positive catalysts, showing where future revenue could come from.
Analyst upgrade gives a modest sentiment lift BNP Paribas Exane upgraded Amentum to Neutral, and the stock rose 3%. It is a small positive, but an upgrade to merely Neutral shows analysts still see limited upside after the weak results and slow growth.
The upgrade is the period's only clear positive price reaction and shows sentiment stabilizing, though only slightly.

July 202630 Jun – 19 Aug 2026

▲2▼1

Amentum's profit beat and new contract wins offset revenue miss and NASA headwind

NASA COSMOS contract win Amentum won NASA's COSMOS contract to run mission operations and astronaut training for Artemis, the Space Station and more. This adds long-term work and supports future revenue, helping lift the stock.
New contract award directly boosts AMTM's demand outlook.
Q2 revenue miss but raised profit guidance Q2 revenue fell short and the stock dropped 15%, but the company raised its full-year profit and earnings guidance, with net income jumping. The market first focused on the miss, then on the improved profitability.
This is the main earnings event that moved the stock sharply both ways.
UK defence framework with Babcock Amentum joined a five-year Babcock framework to support UK defence programmes, including nuclear and submarine work. This secures steady, long-term engineering revenue and strengthens its international defence business.
New contract expands AMTM's addressable market and revenue visibility.
NASA workforce directive cuts 2027 revenue Amentum said NASA's workforce directive will cut about 3% from fiscal 2027 revenue, though the rest of the business should grow mid-single digits. This is a real headwind that partly offsets the new contract wins.
It is a new, specific negative factor that tempers the positive outlook.

30 Jun – 19 Aug 2026

▲2▼1

Amentum's profit beat and new contract wins offset revenue miss and NASA headwind

NASA COSMOS contract win Amentum won NASA's COSMOS contract to run mission operations and astronaut training for Artemis, the Space Station and more. This adds long-term work and supports future revenue, helping lift the stock.
New contract award directly boosts AMTM's demand outlook.
Q2 revenue miss but raised profit guidance Q2 revenue fell short and the stock dropped 15%, but the company raised its full-year profit and earnings guidance, with net income jumping. The market first focused on the miss, then on the improved profitability.
This is the main earnings event that moved the stock sharply both ways.
UK defence framework with Babcock Amentum joined a five-year Babcock framework to support UK defence programmes, including nuclear and submarine work. This secures steady, long-term engineering revenue and strengthens its international defence business.
New contract expands AMTM's addressable market and revenue visibility.
NASA workforce directive cuts 2027 revenue Amentum said NASA's workforce directive will cut about 3% from fiscal 2027 revenue, though the rest of the business should grow mid-single digits. This is a real headwind that partly offsets the new contract wins.
It is a new, specific negative factor that tempers the positive outlook.

Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK)

Q3 20262 Jul – 4 Oct 2026

▲2▼2

Verisk's steady growth and buyback offset by revived acquisition and valuation worries

Steady Q2 growth and $200M buyback Verisk reported Q2 revenue up 4.3% to $806 million and earnings per share up 5.3% to $1.98. The company also announced a $200 million accelerated share buyback, returning cash to shareholders.
This shows the company's core financial performance and capital return, which supported the stock.
Catastrophe-modeling demand and new products Earthquakes in Venezuela and Japan boosted demand for Verisk's catastrophe-modeling services. New offerings like McKenzie Intelligence, a data center exposure database, a fraud platform, and Truepic tools expand its subscription products.
These factors drove demand for Verisk's services and expanded its product lineup.
Revived AccuLynx acquisition adds uncertainty A Delaware court revived the terminated $2.35 billion AccuLynx acquisition, pending FTC approval. This introduces cost and regulatory risk, and the stock fell 6.5% and later 4.71% on the news.
This event created uncertainty and negatively impacted the stock price.
Slow long-term growth and rich valuation Analysts flagged slow long-term growth (about 1.9% revenue and 9.3% EPS) against a rich ~24x forward P/E. Verisk merely reaffirmed guidance while net income slipped to $228.6 million, missing EPS expectations.
This highlights concerns about growth and valuation that weighed on the stock.

August 202616 Jul – 4 Oct 2026

▼3▲1

Verisk's growth stays slow as legal setback and product launches shape the story

Slow growth and rich valuation draw caution Analysts flagged Verisk's weak long-term growth — about 1.9% yearly revenue and 9.3% EPS — against a high forward P/E near 24x, and recommended avoiding the stock. When a company grows slowly but trades expensively, investors worry the price is ahead of the business, which pressures the shares.
Explains the core valuation and growth concern weighing on VRSK.
Guidance reaffirmed, not raised, and profit slips Verisk repeated its 2026 outlook instead of raising it, disappointing investors who wanted an upgrade, and quarterly net income fell to $228.6 million with adjusted EPS of $1.98 missing expectations. Flat guidance plus weaker profit signals slower momentum, which pushed the stock down.
The reaffirmed guidance and profit miss are the main negative earnings driver this period.
Delaware court ruling on AccuLynx A Delaware Chancery Court ruled against Verisk over AccuLynx; the company says it strongly disagrees and may appeal. Legal uncertainty can mean costs or damages, and the stock fell 4.71% on the news, showing investors see real risk in the outcome.
A new legal setback that directly moved the shares and adds uncertainty.
New products expand Verisk's data and fraud offerings Verisk bought McKenzie Intelligence for catastrophe analytics, launched a U.S. Data Center Exposure Database and a Fraud Discovery platform, and added Truepic's verified photo and video tools to ClaimSearch. These deepen its subscription products and open new markets like data center risk, supporting future revenue.
Shows the growth pipeline that offsets the slow headline numbers.

Latest16 Jul – 4 Oct 2026

▼3▲1

Verisk's growth stays slow as legal setback and product launches shape the story

Slow growth and rich valuation draw caution Analysts flagged Verisk's weak long-term growth — about 1.9% yearly revenue and 9.3% EPS — against a high forward P/E near 24x, and recommended avoiding the stock. When a company grows slowly but trades expensively, investors worry the price is ahead of the business, which pressures the shares.
Explains the core valuation and growth concern weighing on VRSK.
Guidance reaffirmed, not raised, and profit slips Verisk repeated its 2026 outlook instead of raising it, disappointing investors who wanted an upgrade, and quarterly net income fell to $228.6 million with adjusted EPS of $1.98 missing expectations. Flat guidance plus weaker profit signals slower momentum, which pushed the stock down.
The reaffirmed guidance and profit miss are the main negative earnings driver this period.
Delaware court ruling on AccuLynx A Delaware Chancery Court ruled against Verisk over AccuLynx; the company says it strongly disagrees and may appeal. Legal uncertainty can mean costs or damages, and the stock fell 4.71% on the news, showing investors see real risk in the outcome.
A new legal setback that directly moved the shares and adds uncertainty.
New products expand Verisk's data and fraud offerings Verisk bought McKenzie Intelligence for catastrophe analytics, launched a U.S. Data Center Exposure Database and a Fraud Discovery platform, and added Truepic's verified photo and video tools to ClaimSearch. These deepen its subscription products and open new markets like data center risk, supporting future revenue.
Shows the growth pipeline that offsets the slow headline numbers.

July 20262 Jul – 10 Aug 2026

▲2▼2

Verisk's growth steady, but court revives $2.35B AccuLynx deal

Q2 revenue up 4.3%, buyback announced Verisk reported second-quarter revenue of $806 million, up 4.3% from a year ago, with adjusted profit rising and adjusted earnings per share up 5.3% to $1.98. The company also announced a $200 million accelerated share buyback and reaffirmed its full-year outlook. Steady growth and cash returned to shareholders support the stock.
This is the core earnings update that shows the business is growing and returning cash, a fundamental positive for the stock.
Catastrophe loss estimates keep Verisk in demand Verisk issued loss estimates for the Venezuela earthquakes (over $10 billion economic) and the Kumamoto, Japan earthquake (insured losses $1.4–2.1 billion). These events highlight demand for Verisk's risk modeling services, as insurers and others rely on its estimates after disasters. More frequent catastrophes can drive long-term demand for its products.
Shows a recurring demand driver for Verisk's core catastrophe modeling business, which can support future revenue.
Court forces Verisk to pursue AccuLynx deal A Delaware judge ruled that Verisk must try to complete its $2.35 billion acquisition of AccuLynx, which Verisk had terminated in December. The judge found Verisk's withdrawal invalid and said AccuLynx can recover costs. The deal still needs FTC approval, so uncertainty and potential financial burden weigh on the stock.
This legal setback creates uncertainty and potential costs, directly pressuring the stock price.
Market reacts sharply to court ruling Verisk shares fell more than 6.5% after the Delaware court decision, reflecting investor concern about the forced acquisition and its unresolved regulatory review. The drop shows the market sees the ruling as a negative, at least in the short term, due to added uncertainty and potential integration costs.
Captures the immediate market impact of the court ruling, confirming it as a negative driver.

2 Jul – 10 Aug 2026

▲2▼2

Verisk's growth steady, but court revives $2.35B AccuLynx deal

Q2 revenue up 4.3%, buyback announced Verisk reported second-quarter revenue of $806 million, up 4.3% from a year ago, with adjusted profit rising and adjusted earnings per share up 5.3% to $1.98. The company also announced a $200 million accelerated share buyback and reaffirmed its full-year outlook. Steady growth and cash returned to shareholders support the stock.
This is the core earnings update that shows the business is growing and returning cash, a fundamental positive for the stock.
Catastrophe loss estimates keep Verisk in demand Verisk issued loss estimates for the Venezuela earthquakes (over $10 billion economic) and the Kumamoto, Japan earthquake (insured losses $1.4–2.1 billion). These events highlight demand for Verisk's risk modeling services, as insurers and others rely on its estimates after disasters. More frequent catastrophes can drive long-term demand for its products.
Shows a recurring demand driver for Verisk's core catastrophe modeling business, which can support future revenue.
Court forces Verisk to pursue AccuLynx deal A Delaware judge ruled that Verisk must try to complete its $2.35 billion acquisition of AccuLynx, which Verisk had terminated in December. The judge found Verisk's withdrawal invalid and said AccuLynx can recover costs. The deal still needs FTC approval, so uncertainty and potential financial burden weigh on the stock.
This legal setback creates uncertainty and potential costs, directly pressuring the stock price.
Market reacts sharply to court ruling Verisk shares fell more than 6.5% after the Delaware court decision, reflecting investor concern about the forced acquisition and its unresolved regulatory review. The drop shows the market sees the ruling as a negative, at least in the short term, due to added uncertainty and potential integration costs.
Captures the immediate market impact of the court ruling, confirming it as a negative driver.