Bank of Nova Scotia vs Toronto Dominion Bank: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)

Q3 202628 Aug – 23 Sep 2026

▲4

Scotiabank's Profit Hits Target as New Funding and Payment Bets Take Shape

Q3 profit hits 14% ROE target, but record fees may not last Scotiabank's quarterly profit rose, with return on equity at 14.2%, above its 14% goal. Canadian banking, wealth and capital-markets fees all grew. But credit-loss provisions rose and record underwriting fees may not repeat, so holding above 14% is not yet proven.
This is the core earnings result that sets the baseline for whether BNS can keep hitting its profit target.
Record commercial pipeline and 10% small-business lending growth Scotiabank says its commercial deal pipeline is the strongest in a long time, small-business lending is up 10%, and commercial credit losses have fallen for five straight quarters. Fee revenue is growing over 20%, and lending margins have widened for five quarters, pointing to real customer demand.
It shows the bank's core lending and fee engine is growing, which supports future earnings beyond one quarter.
Canada freezes bank capital buffer at 3% until mid-2028 Canada's bank regulator will keep the extra capital cushion banks must hold at 3% until mid-2028, with no limits on using excess cash. Scotiabank's CEO said growth comes first, then buybacks. Stable rules make it easier to plan dividends and share repurchases.
It removes a regulatory overhang and supports returning cash to shareholders, a key part of the BNS investment case.
New funding and payment projects: defence bond, stablecoin, tokenized deposits Scotiabank priced Canada's first defence-labelled bond (C$750 million), joined 21 banks backing a stablecoin, and is part of a six-bank Canadian tokenized deposit system. These are early, but they open new funding sources and keep the bank in faster digital payments.
These are new business and funding initiatives that could lower costs and create future revenue, though payoffs are years away.

September 202628 Aug – 23 Sep 2026

▲4

Scotiabank's Profit Hits Target as New Funding and Payment Bets Take Shape

Q3 profit hits 14% ROE target, but record fees may not last Scotiabank's quarterly profit rose, with return on equity at 14.2%, above its 14% goal. Canadian banking, wealth and capital-markets fees all grew. But credit-loss provisions rose and record underwriting fees may not repeat, so holding above 14% is not yet proven.
This is the core earnings result that sets the baseline for whether BNS can keep hitting its profit target.
Record commercial pipeline and 10% small-business lending growth Scotiabank says its commercial deal pipeline is the strongest in a long time, small-business lending is up 10%, and commercial credit losses have fallen for five straight quarters. Fee revenue is growing over 20%, and lending margins have widened for five quarters, pointing to real customer demand.
It shows the bank's core lending and fee engine is growing, which supports future earnings beyond one quarter.
Canada freezes bank capital buffer at 3% until mid-2028 Canada's bank regulator will keep the extra capital cushion banks must hold at 3% until mid-2028, with no limits on using excess cash. Scotiabank's CEO said growth comes first, then buybacks. Stable rules make it easier to plan dividends and share repurchases.
It removes a regulatory overhang and supports returning cash to shareholders, a key part of the BNS investment case.
New funding and payment projects: defence bond, stablecoin, tokenized deposits Scotiabank priced Canada's first defence-labelled bond (C$750 million), joined 21 banks backing a stablecoin, and is part of a six-bank Canadian tokenized deposit system. These are early, but they open new funding sources and keep the bank in faster digital payments.
These are new business and funding initiatives that could lower costs and create future revenue, though payoffs are years away.

Latest28 Aug – 23 Sep 2026

▲4

Scotiabank's Profit Hits Target as New Funding and Payment Bets Take Shape

Q3 profit hits 14% ROE target, but record fees may not last Scotiabank's quarterly profit rose, with return on equity at 14.2%, above its 14% goal. Canadian banking, wealth and capital-markets fees all grew. But credit-loss provisions rose and record underwriting fees may not repeat, so holding above 14% is not yet proven.
This is the core earnings result that sets the baseline for whether BNS can keep hitting its profit target.
Record commercial pipeline and 10% small-business lending growth Scotiabank says its commercial deal pipeline is the strongest in a long time, small-business lending is up 10%, and commercial credit losses have fallen for five straight quarters. Fee revenue is growing over 20%, and lending margins have widened for five quarters, pointing to real customer demand.
It shows the bank's core lending and fee engine is growing, which supports future earnings beyond one quarter.
Canada freezes bank capital buffer at 3% until mid-2028 Canada's bank regulator will keep the extra capital cushion banks must hold at 3% until mid-2028, with no limits on using excess cash. Scotiabank's CEO said growth comes first, then buybacks. Stable rules make it easier to plan dividends and share repurchases.
It removes a regulatory overhang and supports returning cash to shareholders, a key part of the BNS investment case.
New funding and payment projects: defence bond, stablecoin, tokenized deposits Scotiabank priced Canada's first defence-labelled bond (C$750 million), joined 21 banks backing a stablecoin, and is part of a six-bank Canadian tokenized deposit system. These are early, but they open new funding sources and keep the bank in faster digital payments.
These are new business and funding initiatives that could lower costs and create future revenue, though payoffs are years away.

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)

Q3 202619 Jun – 9 Oct 2026

▲3▼1

TD's record earnings, buyback, and stablecoin push drive Q3

Record earnings and revenue growth TD reported record earnings per share of C$2.77 and an 8% rise in revenue, showing strong underlying business performance that supports the stock.
Strong financial results are a key driver of investor confidence and price.
Capital return boost from regulator and buyback A regulator cut TD's capital buffer to 3.0%, freeing billions, and TD announced a C$10B buyback (approved October 9), increasing shareholder returns.
Capital returns directly enhance shareholder value and often lift the stock price.
Digital expansion via stablecoin and AI investments TD became custodian for the QCAD stablecoin, joined bank consortiums for stablecoin and tokenized deposits, and invested C$25M in AI, positioning for future growth.
Digital initiatives signal innovation and potential new revenue streams, driving positive sentiment.
Trade war and storm claims pose headwinds The US-Canada trade war threatens loan losses and slower growth, while storm claims will dent insurance profits, partially offsetting positive drivers.
These risks could pressure earnings and limit upside, providing a balanced view.

August 202615 Jul – 9 Oct 2026

▲2▼2

TD's buyback gets approved, but storm claims and a debt redemption weigh

Regulator clears TD's C$10B buyback Canada's banking regulator approved TD's plan to buy back up to C$10 billion of its own shares, starting October 9. Buying back shares shrinks the number of shares outstanding, which tends to lift the stock price and returns cash to shareholders.
This is the period's biggest new event and directly supports TD's share price.
Storm claims to dent third-quarter results TD told investors it expects catastrophe claims to hit its Wealth Management and Insurance segment in the third quarter. Paying out more in storm-related claims means lower profit for that quarter, which can pull the stock down when results are reported.
A fresh, concrete hit to earnings that pushes against the positive buyback news.
TD redeems US$1.5B of subordinated notes TD will repay US$1.5 billion of its own subordinated notes on September 15, cancelling them. This reduces the bank's capital cushion and means it must replace that funding, a modest drag on the stock rather than a big move.
A new capital action that slightly offsets the buyback's positive effect.
TD Securities hires Morgan Stanley public finance co-head TD Securities brought in Zach Solomon, Morgan Stanley's co-head of public finance, as it expands its municipal bond and public finance business. Adding a senior dealmaker should help win more bond-underwriting fees over time, a slow-building positive for the stock.
A new talent and business-expansion move that supports future revenue.

Latest15 Jul – 9 Oct 2026

▲2▼2

TD's buyback gets approved, but storm claims and a debt redemption weigh

Regulator clears TD's C$10B buyback Canada's banking regulator approved TD's plan to buy back up to C$10 billion of its own shares, starting October 9. Buying back shares shrinks the number of shares outstanding, which tends to lift the stock price and returns cash to shareholders.
This is the period's biggest new event and directly supports TD's share price.
Storm claims to dent third-quarter results TD told investors it expects catastrophe claims to hit its Wealth Management and Insurance segment in the third quarter. Paying out more in storm-related claims means lower profit for that quarter, which can pull the stock down when results are reported.
A fresh, concrete hit to earnings that pushes against the positive buyback news.
TD redeems US$1.5B of subordinated notes TD will repay US$1.5 billion of its own subordinated notes on September 15, cancelling them. This reduces the bank's capital cushion and means it must replace that funding, a modest drag on the stock rather than a big move.
A new capital action that slightly offsets the buyback's positive effect.
TD Securities hires Morgan Stanley public finance co-head TD Securities brought in Zach Solomon, Morgan Stanley's co-head of public finance, as it expands its municipal bond and public finance business. Adding a senior dealmaker should help win more bond-underwriting fees over time, a slow-building positive for the stock.
A new talent and business-expansion move that supports future revenue.

September 20262 Sep – 30 Sep 2026

▲5

TD returns cash, invests in Canada and digital payments

Canada freezes bank capital buffer at 3% until mid-2028 Canada's banking regulator kept the capital buffer at 3% until mid-2028, leaving banks free to use excess capital. TD's CEO said the bank could run high share buybacks, which supports the stock price by returning cash to shareholders.
This regulatory decision directly enables TD to return more capital, a key driver of its stock price.
TD launches $150B five-year plan to accelerate Canadian investment TD committed $150 billion over five years to lend and invest in Canadian energy, minerals, defence, digital/AI, and infrastructure. This should boost future revenue and growth, pushing the stock up as investors expect higher profits.
This is a major new strategic investment that signals growth and directly impacts TD's future earnings.
TD joins bank consortium for stablecoin and tokenized deposits TD is part of two industry projects: a new stablecoin backed by 21 banks and a Canadian-dollar tokenized deposit system with other big banks. These moves position TD for faster, cheaper digital payments, which could attract more customers and improve efficiency.
These technology initiatives show TD adapting to digital finance, potentially enhancing its competitive position and long-term growth.
TD commits C$25m to AI development with Cohere and Layer 6 TD will invest up to C$25 million over three years in AI projects with Cohere and its own AI centre, Layer 6. This aims to boost productivity and client experience, which could lower costs and increase profits over time.
This AI investment is a new initiative that could drive efficiency and innovation, supporting TD's future earnings.
TD announces new C$10B share buyback program TD plans to buy back up to C$10 billion of its own shares by July 2027, after completing a C$7 billion buyback. Buybacks reduce the number of shares, often lifting the stock price and returning cash to shareholders.
This is a direct shareholder return announcement that can immediately boost investor confidence and the stock price.

2 Sep – 30 Sep 2026

▲5

TD returns cash, invests in Canada and digital payments

Canada freezes bank capital buffer at 3% until mid-2028 Canada's banking regulator kept the capital buffer at 3% until mid-2028, leaving banks free to use excess capital. TD's CEO said the bank could run high share buybacks, which supports the stock price by returning cash to shareholders.
This regulatory decision directly enables TD to return more capital, a key driver of its stock price.
TD launches $150B five-year plan to accelerate Canadian investment TD committed $150 billion over five years to lend and invest in Canadian energy, minerals, defence, digital/AI, and infrastructure. This should boost future revenue and growth, pushing the stock up as investors expect higher profits.
This is a major new strategic investment that signals growth and directly impacts TD's future earnings.
TD joins bank consortium for stablecoin and tokenized deposits TD is part of two industry projects: a new stablecoin backed by 21 banks and a Canadian-dollar tokenized deposit system with other big banks. These moves position TD for faster, cheaper digital payments, which could attract more customers and improve efficiency.
These technology initiatives show TD adapting to digital finance, potentially enhancing its competitive position and long-term growth.
TD commits C$25m to AI development with Cohere and Layer 6 TD will invest up to C$25 million over three years in AI projects with Cohere and its own AI centre, Layer 6. This aims to boost productivity and client experience, which could lower costs and increase profits over time.
This AI investment is a new initiative that could drive efficiency and innovation, supporting TD's future earnings.
TD announces new C$10B share buyback program TD plans to buy back up to C$10 billion of its own shares by July 2027, after completing a C$7 billion buyback. Buybacks reduce the number of shares, often lifting the stock price and returning cash to shareholders.
This is a direct shareholder return announcement that can immediately boost investor confidence and the stock price.

July 202619 Jun – 28 Aug 2026

▲3▼1

TD's capital surge, record earnings, and stablecoin push drive gains

Regulator cuts capital buffer, freeing billions Canada's banking regulator lowered the domestic stability buffer to 3.0% from 3.5%, freeing up capital for banks like TD. With TD's CET1 ratio already well above requirements, this gives it more room to lend, invest, or return cash to shareholders, which supports the stock price.
This directly boosts TD's capital flexibility and potential shareholder returns, a key driver of the stock.
TD becomes custodian for QCAD stablecoin TD was named primary custodian for reserves backing the QCAD stablecoin. This adds a new fee-based business and positions TD in the growing digital asset space, which could increase revenue and diversify its operations, pushing the stock up.
It shows TD expanding into a new revenue stream, which investors view positively.
US-Canada trade war escalates, posing risks Trade talks collapsed, with US tariffs on Canadian goods and Canada set to retaliate. This raises fears of an economic slowdown and pressure on bank profit margins. For TD, that means potential loan losses and slower growth, which weighs on the stock.
It highlights a major external risk that could hurt TD's earnings and investor sentiment.
Record Q3 earnings and raised capital return outlook TD reported record third-quarter earnings with adjusted EPS up to C$2.77 from C$2.20, revenue up 8%, and improved profitability. Management raised its capital return outlook, with potential for over C$13 billion in buybacks. Strong results across all segments and a solid CET1 ratio signal a healthy bank, driving the stock higher.
This is the most direct positive driver, showing TD's financial strength and shareholder-friendly plans.

19 Jun – 28 Aug 2026

▲3▼1

TD's capital surge, record earnings, and stablecoin push drive gains

Regulator cuts capital buffer, freeing billions Canada's banking regulator lowered the domestic stability buffer to 3.0% from 3.5%, freeing up capital for banks like TD. With TD's CET1 ratio already well above requirements, this gives it more room to lend, invest, or return cash to shareholders, which supports the stock price.
This directly boosts TD's capital flexibility and potential shareholder returns, a key driver of the stock.
TD becomes custodian for QCAD stablecoin TD was named primary custodian for reserves backing the QCAD stablecoin. This adds a new fee-based business and positions TD in the growing digital asset space, which could increase revenue and diversify its operations, pushing the stock up.
It shows TD expanding into a new revenue stream, which investors view positively.
US-Canada trade war escalates, posing risks Trade talks collapsed, with US tariffs on Canadian goods and Canada set to retaliate. This raises fears of an economic slowdown and pressure on bank profit margins. For TD, that means potential loan losses and slower growth, which weighs on the stock.
It highlights a major external risk that could hurt TD's earnings and investor sentiment.
Record Q3 earnings and raised capital return outlook TD reported record third-quarter earnings with adjusted EPS up to C$2.77 from C$2.20, revenue up 8%, and improved profitability. Management raised its capital return outlook, with potential for over C$13 billion in buybacks. Strong results across all segments and a solid CET1 ratio signal a healthy bank, driving the stock higher.
This is the most direct positive driver, showing TD's financial strength and shareholder-friendly plans.