BT vs Ares Management LP: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

BT Group Plc (BT-A.LSE)

Q3 20268 Jul – 3 Oct 2026

▲2▼1

BT's Verizon JV and TalkTalk rescue bid reshape its future

Verizon joint venture BT and Verizon will merge their international business units into a 50:50 joint venture, with Verizon paying $625m. This gives BT more scale and a cloud/AI platform to sell to big companies worldwide, which can lift future profits and supports the share price.
This is a major new deal that changes BT's international business and growth prospects.
5G fast lanes and net neutrality BT-owned EE is pushing UK regulators to relax net neutrality rules and has launched a premium 5G fast-lane service costing £5 extra. If rules allow paid prioritisation, BT can charge more for better speeds, boosting revenue and profit.
This regulatory shift could let BT earn extra fees from premium services, directly helping its finances.
AI agent disruption fears BT shares fell about 4% as investors worried that Meta's new AI agent could make it easier for customers to switch telecom providers. If AI tools reduce customer loyalty, BT may face higher churn and need to spend more to keep subscribers, hurting profits.
This shows a new competitive threat from AI that could pressure BT's customer base and margins.
TalkTalk rescue bid BT made a last-minute bid for TalkTalk's wholesale arm, PXC, which owes Openreach about £300m. A rival warns this could create a broadband monopoly and trigger a long competition probe. Buying PXC could add customers and infrastructure, but regulatory delays and political opposition create uncertainty.
This is a major new event that could significantly expand BT's wholesale business but also brings regulatory risk.

August 20268 Jul – 3 Oct 2026

▲2▼1

BT's Verizon JV and TalkTalk rescue bid reshape its future

Verizon joint venture BT and Verizon will merge their international business units into a 50:50 joint venture, with Verizon paying $625m. This gives BT more scale and a cloud/AI platform to sell to big companies worldwide, which can lift future profits and supports the share price.
This is a major new deal that changes BT's international business and growth prospects.
5G fast lanes and net neutrality BT-owned EE is pushing UK regulators to relax net neutrality rules and has launched a premium 5G fast-lane service costing £5 extra. If rules allow paid prioritisation, BT can charge more for better speeds, boosting revenue and profit.
This regulatory shift could let BT earn extra fees from premium services, directly helping its finances.
AI agent disruption fears BT shares fell about 4% as investors worried that Meta's new AI agent could make it easier for customers to switch telecom providers. If AI tools reduce customer loyalty, BT may face higher churn and need to spend more to keep subscribers, hurting profits.
This shows a new competitive threat from AI that could pressure BT's customer base and margins.
TalkTalk rescue bid BT made a last-minute bid for TalkTalk's wholesale arm, PXC, which owes Openreach about £300m. A rival warns this could create a broadband monopoly and trigger a long competition probe. Buying PXC could add customers and infrastructure, but regulatory delays and political opposition create uncertainty.
This is a major new event that could significantly expand BT's wholesale business but also brings regulatory risk.

Latest8 Jul – 3 Oct 2026

▲2▼1

BT's Verizon JV and TalkTalk rescue bid reshape its future

Verizon joint venture BT and Verizon will merge their international business units into a 50:50 joint venture, with Verizon paying $625m. This gives BT more scale and a cloud/AI platform to sell to big companies worldwide, which can lift future profits and supports the share price.
This is a major new deal that changes BT's international business and growth prospects.
5G fast lanes and net neutrality BT-owned EE is pushing UK regulators to relax net neutrality rules and has launched a premium 5G fast-lane service costing £5 extra. If rules allow paid prioritisation, BT can charge more for better speeds, boosting revenue and profit.
This regulatory shift could let BT earn extra fees from premium services, directly helping its finances.
AI agent disruption fears BT shares fell about 4% as investors worried that Meta's new AI agent could make it easier for customers to switch telecom providers. If AI tools reduce customer loyalty, BT may face higher churn and need to spend more to keep subscribers, hurting profits.
This shows a new competitive threat from AI that could pressure BT's customer base and margins.
TalkTalk rescue bid BT made a last-minute bid for TalkTalk's wholesale arm, PXC, which owes Openreach about £300m. A rival warns this could create a broadband monopoly and trigger a long competition probe. Buying PXC could add customers and infrastructure, but regulatory delays and political opposition create uncertainty.
This is a major new event that could significantly expand BT's wholesale business but also brings regulatory risk.

Q2 202621 Jun – 1 Jul 2026

▼2▲1

BT's Verizon JV reshapes outlook; Ofcom AI warning adds risk

BT and Verizon form 50:50 international JV BT will combine its international enterprise business with Verizon's in a 50:50 joint venture serving over 3,000 multinational customers across 180+ countries, with about $4 billion in combined annual revenue. Verizon pays BT $625 million. This simplifies BT's international exposure and brings cash, supporting the shares.
The JV is the single biggest new event driving BT's investment story this period.
BT cuts annual guidance after JV Because BT International moves into the JV, BT lowered fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to £17.1–17.6 billion from £19–19.5 billion and trimmed EBITDA to £8.1–8.2 billion. The dividend growth outlook was kept. The smaller reported business weighs on sentiment even if the JV is strategic.
Guidance cuts directly affect how investors value BT's earnings and dividend cover.
Ofcom warns AI could cause network blackouts Ofcom warned that AI in telecom networks could trigger catastrophic outages and said operators like BT face fines under the Telecoms Security Act if they mismanage the risk. This follows BT's £17.5 million penalty for a 2023 999 outage. It adds regulatory and reputational pressure.
New regulatory risk that could mean costs or fines for BT.
Verizon's JV charges and market reaction Verizon disclosed up to $1.4 billion in charges tied to the JV, including severance and asset write-downs, and its shares fell. For BT, the deal brings $625 million and scale, but near-term restructuring costs and Verizon's weakness create uncertainty about how smoothly the JV will deliver benefits.
Shows the counterweight: the JV has real costs and execution risk, not just upside.

June 202621 Jun – 1 Jul 2026

▼2▲1

BT's Verizon JV reshapes outlook; Ofcom AI warning adds risk

BT and Verizon form 50:50 international JV BT will combine its international enterprise business with Verizon's in a 50:50 joint venture serving over 3,000 multinational customers across 180+ countries, with about $4 billion in combined annual revenue. Verizon pays BT $625 million. This simplifies BT's international exposure and brings cash, supporting the shares.
The JV is the single biggest new event driving BT's investment story this period.
BT cuts annual guidance after JV Because BT International moves into the JV, BT lowered fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to £17.1–17.6 billion from £19–19.5 billion and trimmed EBITDA to £8.1–8.2 billion. The dividend growth outlook was kept. The smaller reported business weighs on sentiment even if the JV is strategic.
Guidance cuts directly affect how investors value BT's earnings and dividend cover.
Ofcom warns AI could cause network blackouts Ofcom warned that AI in telecom networks could trigger catastrophic outages and said operators like BT face fines under the Telecoms Security Act if they mismanage the risk. This follows BT's £17.5 million penalty for a 2023 999 outage. It adds regulatory and reputational pressure.
New regulatory risk that could mean costs or fines for BT.
Verizon's JV charges and market reaction Verizon disclosed up to $1.4 billion in charges tied to the JV, including severance and asset write-downs, and its shares fell. For BT, the deal brings $625 million and scale, but near-term restructuring costs and Verizon's weakness create uncertainty about how smoothly the JV will deliver benefits.
Shows the counterweight: the JV has real costs and execution risk, not just upside.

21 Jun – 1 Jul 2026

▼2▲1

BT's Verizon JV reshapes outlook; Ofcom AI warning adds risk

BT and Verizon form 50:50 international JV BT will combine its international enterprise business with Verizon's in a 50:50 joint venture serving over 3,000 multinational customers across 180+ countries, with about $4 billion in combined annual revenue. Verizon pays BT $625 million. This simplifies BT's international exposure and brings cash, supporting the shares.
The JV is the single biggest new event driving BT's investment story this period.
BT cuts annual guidance after JV Because BT International moves into the JV, BT lowered fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to £17.1–17.6 billion from £19–19.5 billion and trimmed EBITDA to £8.1–8.2 billion. The dividend growth outlook was kept. The smaller reported business weighs on sentiment even if the JV is strategic.
Guidance cuts directly affect how investors value BT's earnings and dividend cover.
Ofcom warns AI could cause network blackouts Ofcom warned that AI in telecom networks could trigger catastrophic outages and said operators like BT face fines under the Telecoms Security Act if they mismanage the risk. This follows BT's £17.5 million penalty for a 2023 999 outage. It adds regulatory and reputational pressure.
New regulatory risk that could mean costs or fines for BT.
Verizon's JV charges and market reaction Verizon disclosed up to $1.4 billion in charges tied to the JV, including severance and asset write-downs, and its shares fell. For BT, the deal brings $625 million and scale, but near-term restructuring costs and Verizon's weakness create uncertainty about how smoothly the JV will deliver benefits.
Shows the counterweight: the JV has real costs and execution risk, not just upside.

Ares Management LP (ARES)

Q3 202622 Jun – 5 Oct 2026

▲2▼2

Ares posts record fundraising and growth, but credit and regulatory risks weigh

Record fundraising and AUM growth Ares raised a record $36 billion and grew assets under management 17% to $671 billion, with Q2 revenue up 25.6%. It also set a $750 billion AUM target for 2028, signaling confidence in future growth.
This shows the core positive momentum that drove investor optimism during the period.
Capital deployment across diverse sectors Ares put money to work in private credit, Japan, logistics, student housing, and data centers. This diversification helps grow fee-earning assets and reduces reliance on any single market.
It highlights management's active investment strategy that supports long-term earnings.
Retail private credit stress and record defaults Retail private credit withdrawals repeatedly hit caps, showing stress in that channel. Fitch reported a record 6.0% US private-credit default rate, raising concerns about credit quality across the industry.
These are key risks that could pressure Ares's performance and investor sentiment.
UK regulatory dispute over TalkTalk A UK regulatory dispute over TalkTalk, where Ares holds a 7% stake and over £500 million in loans, adds uncertainty and potential losses. This could hurt earnings and reputation if the situation worsens.
It represents a specific, material risk that emerged during the period and could affect Ares's financials.

September 202631 Jul – 5 Oct 2026

▲3▼1

Ares grows on strong earnings and deals, but UK regulatory risk weighs

Redemption pressure eases Redemption pressure eased in Ares's Strategic Income Fund, a sign that retail investors are less eager to pull money out. This reduces a key risk to Ares's fee income and supports the stock.
It shows a negative trend from earlier reports reversing, which is new and positive for the stock.
Q2 earnings beat and steady dividend Ares reported Q2 revenue up 25.6%, beating expectations, and kept its dividend steady. Strong financial results and a reliable payout give investors confidence in the company's health.
It provides new positive financial details that support the stock price.
Growth targets and new fund Ares set a target of $750 billion in assets under management by 2028 and raised $4.2 billion for a structured solutions fund. It also deployed billions into private credit, Japan, U.S. logistics, student housing, and data centers.
It shows new growth initiatives and capital deployment that can drive future earnings.
UK regulatory fight over TalkTalk A UK regulatory dispute over TalkTalk, where Ares holds a 7% stake and over £500 million in loans, creates uncertainty. This could hurt sentiment and put a sizable investment at risk.
It is a new negative factor that could pressure the stock and offset positive momentum.

Latest31 Jul – 5 Oct 2026

▲3▼1

Ares beats earnings, deploys billions into credit and real estate, faces UK regulatory fight

Q2 earnings beat and dividend affirmed Ares beat second-quarter earnings estimates and reported revenue up 25.6% from a year earlier, with net income of $150.6 million. The dividend was affirmed. Solid profits and steady payouts reassure investors that the core business is healthy, supporting the stock price.
The earnings beat and dividend are the period's core financial results, directly supporting ARES's valuation.
Big new private credit and real estate deals Ares led a $2.2 billion loan for MedImpact's acquisition, closed its largest-ever Japan logistics fund at about $4 billion, and launched a $2.4 billion U.S. logistics venture with PSP. These deals put more fee-earning money to work, lifting future management fees and growth prospects.
These are the period's largest new capital deployments, directly expanding Ares's fee-earning asset base.
Student housing and data center expansion Ares and Scion bought four student housing communities for about $435 million, and Ares Secondaries pushed its Sabey data center investment past $500 million. Both add to Ares's real estate footprint and show it can keep finding attractive places to invest client money.
These deals show continued real estate deployment, a key growth engine for Ares's fee income.
UK regulatory fight over TalkTalk Ares warned UK officials that a forced BT takeover of TalkTalk would hurt Britain's investment climate, as Ares holds a 7% stake and has lent over £500 million while rivaling BT for control. The dispute creates uncertainty around a sizable UK investment and could weigh on sentiment.
This is the period's main negative development, introducing regulatory and investment risk for Ares.

27 Sep – 2 Oct 2026

▲4

Ares Expands Private Credit and Infrastructure with Big Deals and Fundraise

Redemption pressure eases Ares Strategic Income Fund's withdrawal requests fell to 13.1% from 14.4%, signaling stabilizing private credit redemptions. This reduces forced selling and supports fee income, a positive for ARES stock.
Shows improving capital stability, directly impacting ARES's private credit business.
AUM target and growth Ares targets over $750B AUM by 2028, with 17% YoY growth and $34.4B net inflows. This ambitious plan signals confidence and future fee growth, likely lifting investor sentiment and ARES's valuation.
Provides forward-looking growth target that drives long-term earnings expectations.
Major private credit deals Ares provided $2B of a $6.5B financing for Phoenix Tower and upsized Plenitude investment by over €1B. These large deals expand Ares's private credit footprint and demonstrate deal-sourcing strength, boosting revenue and reputation.
Highlights significant capital deployment that directly increases fee-paying AUM and earnings.
Successful fundraise Ares raised $4.2B for its inaugural Global Structured Solutions Fund, far above its $1B target. This adds fee-paying AUM and validates Ares's ability to attract capital, supporting future management fees.
Demonstrates strong fundraising capability, a key driver of ARES's revenue growth.

July 202622 Jun – 31 Jul 2026

▲2▼1

Ares hits record fundraising, but retail credit redemptions and defaults weigh

Retail private credit funds cap withdrawals again Ares again limited withdrawals from its $23 billion Strategic Income Fund after redemption requests topped 14%, above the 5% quarterly cap. This shows retail investors pulling money out, which pressures Ares's fee income and signals stress in its fastest-growing retail channel.
Directly explains a key force pushing ARES down: retail redemption pressure forcing withdrawal caps.
Record $36B fundraising and 17% AUM growth Ares raised a record $36 billion in Q2, with assets under management up 17% to $671 billion and fee-related earnings up 20%. Strong institutional demand and $170 billion of dry powder support future fee growth, a clear positive for the stock.
Shows the core earnings engine still growing strongly, the main positive force for ARES.
Record 6% private credit default rate clouds resilient earnings Fitch reported a record 6.0% US private-credit default rate, even as Ares and Blue Owl posted solid results. Rising defaults raise concerns about credit quality and future fund performance, a real counterweight to Ares's strong fundraising and earnings.
Provides the key counterweight: credit deterioration that could offset Ares's growth story.
Revolut opens private market funds to retail investors Revolut now offers Ares private credit and equity funds to eligible European customers via ELTIF 2.0. This widens Ares's retail reach and could boost long-term fundraising, though it also adds exposure to retail redemption risk.
New distribution channel expands demand for Ares funds, a positive growth driver.

22 Jun – 31 Jul 2026

▲2▼1

Ares hits record fundraising, but retail credit redemptions and defaults weigh

Retail private credit funds cap withdrawals again Ares again limited withdrawals from its $23 billion Strategic Income Fund after redemption requests topped 14%, above the 5% quarterly cap. This shows retail investors pulling money out, which pressures Ares's fee income and signals stress in its fastest-growing retail channel.
Directly explains a key force pushing ARES down: retail redemption pressure forcing withdrawal caps.
Record $36B fundraising and 17% AUM growth Ares raised a record $36 billion in Q2, with assets under management up 17% to $671 billion and fee-related earnings up 20%. Strong institutional demand and $170 billion of dry powder support future fee growth, a clear positive for the stock.
Shows the core earnings engine still growing strongly, the main positive force for ARES.
Record 6% private credit default rate clouds resilient earnings Fitch reported a record 6.0% US private-credit default rate, even as Ares and Blue Owl posted solid results. Rising defaults raise concerns about credit quality and future fund performance, a real counterweight to Ares's strong fundraising and earnings.
Provides the key counterweight: credit deterioration that could offset Ares's growth story.
Revolut opens private market funds to retail investors Revolut now offers Ares private credit and equity funds to eligible European customers via ELTIF 2.0. This widens Ares's retail reach and could boost long-term fundraising, though it also adds exposure to retail redemption risk.
New distribution channel expands demand for Ares funds, a positive growth driver.