Cboe Global Markets vs MarketAxess: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE)

Q3 20261 Jul – 9 Oct 2026

▲3▼1

Cboe's license win and new products offset competitive threats

Record Q2 revenue and raised guidance Cboe reported record Q2 revenue of $732 million, up 25% from a year ago, and raised its full-year guidance. This shows the core business is growing strongly and gave investors confidence.
It directly explains a key positive force behind the stock during the period.
25-year S&P 500 options license extension Cboe secured a 25-year extension of its S&P 500 options license through 2051, removing a major worry that it could lose this key product. Analysts upgraded the stock on the news.
It was a major new positive catalyst that lifted sentiment and removed a long-standing overhang.
New binary contracts and 23-hour trading Cboe launched KPI-linked binary contracts with Robinhood and plans to expand trading to 23 hours a day. These moves open new revenue streams and could attract more traders.
It highlights new growth initiatives that could drive future revenue.
Regulatory and competitive risks persist Kalshi asked the SEC to delay Cboe's earnings-based options, and Trump's push to bring Hyperliquid onshore threatens Cboe's crypto derivatives share. Shares briefly fell 6.1% on these worries.
It shows the real counterweight that kept a lid on gains during the period.

September 202612 Sep – 9 Oct 2026

▲4

Cboe locks in S&P 500 options through 2051, launches KPI contracts, wins upgrades

S&P 500 options license extended to 2051 Cboe signed a 25-year extension of its exclusive S&P 500 index options license, keeping its flagship SPX franchise through 2051. That removes the biggest worry hanging over the stock — losing the contract — and gives a stable, long-term revenue base. Shares rose 5% on the news.
This is the single biggest new event of the period and the main reason analysts turned positive on CBOE.
New KPI-linked binary contracts with Robinhood Cboe is launching a new type of binary contract tied to company-specific performance metrics, with Robinhood as the first retail broker. It opens a fresh product line and could lift trading volume and data revenue. Cboe Clear U.S. is also seeking SEC registration to clear them, adding another possible revenue stream.
A brand-new product category is a genuine growth driver beyond the existing options business.
Analyst upgrades after license and KPI deals TD Cowen upgraded Cboe to Buy with a $334 target, and Morgan Stanley double-upgraded it to Overweight with a $358 target, both citing the S&P renewal and KPI contracts. Upgrades can pull in new buyers and support the share price even if day-to-day moves are choppy.
These upgrades are direct market reactions to the two new deals and show how professionals are repricing CBOE.
23-hour trading expansion adds long-term volume potential Cboe EDGX, Nasdaq and NYSE Arca plan to extend US equities trading to 23 hours a day from December 6, pending SEC approval. Analysts name Cboe as a beneficiary because more hours can mean more trading activity and derivatives hedging, though overnight liquidity may be thin at first.
It is a structural change to when markets operate and could expand Cboe's addressable trading volume over time.

Latest12 Sep – 9 Oct 2026

▲4

Cboe locks in S&P 500 options through 2051, launches KPI contracts, wins upgrades

S&P 500 options license extended to 2051 Cboe signed a 25-year extension of its exclusive S&P 500 index options license, keeping its flagship SPX franchise through 2051. That removes the biggest worry hanging over the stock — losing the contract — and gives a stable, long-term revenue base. Shares rose 5% on the news.
This is the single biggest new event of the period and the main reason analysts turned positive on CBOE.
New KPI-linked binary contracts with Robinhood Cboe is launching a new type of binary contract tied to company-specific performance metrics, with Robinhood as the first retail broker. It opens a fresh product line and could lift trading volume and data revenue. Cboe Clear U.S. is also seeking SEC registration to clear them, adding another possible revenue stream.
A brand-new product category is a genuine growth driver beyond the existing options business.
Analyst upgrades after license and KPI deals TD Cowen upgraded Cboe to Buy with a $334 target, and Morgan Stanley double-upgraded it to Overweight with a $358 target, both citing the S&P renewal and KPI contracts. Upgrades can pull in new buyers and support the share price even if day-to-day moves are choppy.
These upgrades are direct market reactions to the two new deals and show how professionals are repricing CBOE.
23-hour trading expansion adds long-term volume potential Cboe EDGX, Nasdaq and NYSE Arca plan to extend US equities trading to 23 hours a day from December 6, pending SEC approval. Analysts name Cboe as a beneficiary because more hours can mean more trading activity and derivatives hedging, though overnight liquidity may be thin at first.
It is a structural change to when markets operate and could expand Cboe's addressable trading volume over time.

July 20261 Jul – 25 Aug 2026

▲2▼2

Cboe's record results and new products face rising competition

Record Q2 revenue and raised guidance Cboe reported record Q2 net revenue of $732 million, up 25% from a year ago, and raised its full-year growth outlook to mid-to-high teens. Adjusted earnings per share jumped 45% to $3.56. This shows the core business is growing faster than expected, which supports a higher stock price.
This is the period's biggest positive fundamental update and directly explains why CBOE is moving.
New earnings-based options could open a new market Cboe is seeking SEC approval for binary options tied to corporate earnings metrics, covering 23 companies and over 100 metrics. If approved, this expands Cboe's product lineup and fee revenue, helping it compete with prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
This is a new product initiative that could drive future revenue growth and is a key reason investors are watching CBOE.
Kalshi asks SEC to delay Cboe's earnings contracts Kalshi, a prediction market, asked the SEC to hold off approving Cboe's new binary earnings options, arguing they compete with its own products. This could slow or block Cboe's launch, creating uncertainty and potentially delaying a new revenue stream.
This is a direct competitive and regulatory threat that could hurt CBOE's growth plans.
Trump push to bring Hyperliquid onshore threatens crypto derivatives share President Trump said regulators are working to bring crypto platform Hyperliquid into the U.S. legally. Cboe shares fell as much as 6.1% on the news, as Hyperliquid's onshore move could take crypto derivatives volume away from mainstream exchanges like Cboe.
This is a new competitive threat that directly moved CBOE's stock and could pressure its crypto business.

1 Jul – 25 Aug 2026

▲2▼2

Cboe's record results and new products face rising competition

Record Q2 revenue and raised guidance Cboe reported record Q2 net revenue of $732 million, up 25% from a year ago, and raised its full-year growth outlook to mid-to-high teens. Adjusted earnings per share jumped 45% to $3.56. This shows the core business is growing faster than expected, which supports a higher stock price.
This is the period's biggest positive fundamental update and directly explains why CBOE is moving.
New earnings-based options could open a new market Cboe is seeking SEC approval for binary options tied to corporate earnings metrics, covering 23 companies and over 100 metrics. If approved, this expands Cboe's product lineup and fee revenue, helping it compete with prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
This is a new product initiative that could drive future revenue growth and is a key reason investors are watching CBOE.
Kalshi asks SEC to delay Cboe's earnings contracts Kalshi, a prediction market, asked the SEC to hold off approving Cboe's new binary earnings options, arguing they compete with its own products. This could slow or block Cboe's launch, creating uncertainty and potentially delaying a new revenue stream.
This is a direct competitive and regulatory threat that could hurt CBOE's growth plans.
Trump push to bring Hyperliquid onshore threatens crypto derivatives share President Trump said regulators are working to bring crypto platform Hyperliquid into the U.S. legally. Cboe shares fell as much as 6.1% on the news, as Hyperliquid's onshore move could take crypto derivatives volume away from mainstream exchanges like Cboe.
This is a new competitive threat that directly moved CBOE's stock and could pressure its crypto business.

Q2 202617 Jun – 25 Jun 2026

▲3▼1

Cboe's record profits overshadowed by new competition and its own prediction-market launch

Competitive threats crush stock despite record earnings Cboe's stock fell from $370 to $250 in a month on fears that Kalshi's CFTC-approved perpetual futures and Schwab's binary options will steal its core options business. This fear is the main reason the stock is down, even though Cboe just posted record earnings and raised guidance.
This is the biggest force driving CBOE's price right now—a sharp sell-off on competitive fears.
Cboe launches its own prediction market suite Cboe launched Cboe Predicts, binary options on the Mini S&P 500, available through brokers like Schwab and Interactive Brokers. This lets Cboe compete directly with Kalshi and Polymarket, potentially attracting new trading volume and defending its index options franchise.
This is Cboe's direct response to the competitive threat, a new product that could drive future revenue.
Schwab to host S&P 500 prediction markets via Cboe Charles Schwab plans to offer S&P 500 prediction markets through Cboe, using binary contracts. Schwab has $11.8 trillion in customer assets, so this partnership could bring significant new trading volume to Cboe's platform.
A major distribution deal that could boost Cboe's trading volume and revenue.
Record options volume from SpaceX IPO frenzy SpaceX's IPO sparked record options trading (1.8 million contracts) and heavy ETF activity. As a major options exchange, Cboe likely benefited from this surge in transaction revenue, showing its business can thrive on market excitement.
Demonstrates strong demand for options trading, a core driver of Cboe's revenue.

June 202617 Jun – 25 Jun 2026

▲3▼1

Cboe's record profits overshadowed by new competition and its own prediction-market launch

Competitive threats crush stock despite record earnings Cboe's stock fell from $370 to $250 in a month on fears that Kalshi's CFTC-approved perpetual futures and Schwab's binary options will steal its core options business. This fear is the main reason the stock is down, even though Cboe just posted record earnings and raised guidance.
This is the biggest force driving CBOE's price right now—a sharp sell-off on competitive fears.
Cboe launches its own prediction market suite Cboe launched Cboe Predicts, binary options on the Mini S&P 500, available through brokers like Schwab and Interactive Brokers. This lets Cboe compete directly with Kalshi and Polymarket, potentially attracting new trading volume and defending its index options franchise.
This is Cboe's direct response to the competitive threat, a new product that could drive future revenue.
Schwab to host S&P 500 prediction markets via Cboe Charles Schwab plans to offer S&P 500 prediction markets through Cboe, using binary contracts. Schwab has $11.8 trillion in customer assets, so this partnership could bring significant new trading volume to Cboe's platform.
A major distribution deal that could boost Cboe's trading volume and revenue.
Record options volume from SpaceX IPO frenzy SpaceX's IPO sparked record options trading (1.8 million contracts) and heavy ETF activity. As a major options exchange, Cboe likely benefited from this surge in transaction revenue, showing its business can thrive on market excitement.
Demonstrates strong demand for options trading, a core driver of Cboe's revenue.

17 Jun – 25 Jun 2026

▲3▼1

Cboe's record profits overshadowed by new competition and its own prediction-market launch

Competitive threats crush stock despite record earnings Cboe's stock fell from $370 to $250 in a month on fears that Kalshi's CFTC-approved perpetual futures and Schwab's binary options will steal its core options business. This fear is the main reason the stock is down, even though Cboe just posted record earnings and raised guidance.
This is the biggest force driving CBOE's price right now—a sharp sell-off on competitive fears.
Cboe launches its own prediction market suite Cboe launched Cboe Predicts, binary options on the Mini S&P 500, available through brokers like Schwab and Interactive Brokers. This lets Cboe compete directly with Kalshi and Polymarket, potentially attracting new trading volume and defending its index options franchise.
This is Cboe's direct response to the competitive threat, a new product that could drive future revenue.
Schwab to host S&P 500 prediction markets via Cboe Charles Schwab plans to offer S&P 500 prediction markets through Cboe, using binary contracts. Schwab has $11.8 trillion in customer assets, so this partnership could bring significant new trading volume to Cboe's platform.
A major distribution deal that could boost Cboe's trading volume and revenue.
Record options volume from SpaceX IPO frenzy SpaceX's IPO sparked record options trading (1.8 million contracts) and heavy ETF activity. As a major options exchange, Cboe likely benefited from this surge in transaction revenue, showing its business can thrive on market excitement.
Demonstrates strong demand for options trading, a core driver of Cboe's revenue.

MarketAxess Holdings Inc (MKTX)

Q3 202615 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

▲2▼2

ICE's $167/share buyout lifts MKTX, but deal risks and weak trading linger

ICE acquisition at $167/share Intercontinental Exchange agreed to buy MarketAxess for $167 per share in cash, a 33% premium. The stock jumped over 30% and now trades near the offer price, reflecting the deal's expected completion.
This is the dominant new event that re-rated the stock and anchors its price.
Q2 earnings beat and data expansion MarketAxess reported Q2 revenue and earnings above estimates. It is also integrating its CP+ and TraX data products into Arcesium's platforms, growing higher-margin data services.
Shows fundamental strength and strategic growth beyond the buyout.
Deal price fairness questioned Law firms are investigating whether $167 per share is fair, noting it is below the 52-week high of $200.90 and UBS's $200 target. This keeps alive the slim chance of a higher bid or deal delay.
Introduces uncertainty that could cap upside or delay the deal.
Weak core trading volumes Q2 trading volumes and commission revenue were soft, indicating the underlying business remains sluggish. This weakness contrasts with the buyout premium and highlights operational challenges.
Shows the core business is not contributing to strength, a counterweight to the deal news.

August 202615 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

▲2▼2

ICE's $167/share buyout lifts MKTX, but deal risks and weak trading linger

ICE acquisition at $167/share Intercontinental Exchange agreed to buy MarketAxess for $167 per share in cash, a 33% premium. The stock jumped over 30% and now trades near the offer price, reflecting the deal's expected completion.
This is the dominant new event that re-rated the stock and anchors its price.
Q2 earnings beat and data expansion MarketAxess reported Q2 revenue and earnings above estimates. It is also integrating its CP+ and TraX data products into Arcesium's platforms, growing higher-margin data services.
Shows fundamental strength and strategic growth beyond the buyout.
Deal price fairness questioned Law firms are investigating whether $167 per share is fair, noting it is below the 52-week high of $200.90 and UBS's $200 target. This keeps alive the slim chance of a higher bid or deal delay.
Introduces uncertainty that could cap upside or delay the deal.
Weak core trading volumes Q2 trading volumes and commission revenue were soft, indicating the underlying business remains sluggish. This weakness contrasts with the buyout premium and highlights operational challenges.
Shows the core business is not contributing to strength, a counterweight to the deal news.

Latest15 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

▲3

MarketAxess Is Being Bought by ICE for $167 Cash

ICE to buy MarketAxess for $167 per share in cash MarketAxess agreed to be acquired by Intercontinental Exchange for $167.00 per share in cash. That buyout price is the main force holding the stock near that level, and it is why shares are up sharply from where they traded before the deal. The deal is the single biggest fact for MKTX now.
The takeover is the dominant driver of MKTX's price and the reason the stock has re-rated.
Law firms probe whether the $167 deal is fair Investor-rights law firms are investigating whether the ICE sale gives shareholders a fair price and whether disclosures are complete. These probes rarely change a deal, but they keep alive the small chance of a higher bid or added terms, which is a mild support for the stock.
It is the main counterweight to the buyout and could affect the final price shareholders receive.
Q2 results beat estimates, but trading volumes were soft MarketAxess's second-quarter revenue of $218.4 million and earnings of $1.95 a share both came in slightly above analyst estimates. However, total trading volume of $43.07 billion a day missed expectations, and commission revenue fell 2.5%. The beat supports the stock, but the weak volumes show the core business is still sluggish.
It shows the underlying business performance that the buyout price is based on, with both a positive and a negative side.
Data and analytics push deeper into institutional workflows MarketAxess is integrating its CP+ pricing engine and TraX trade data into Arcesium's platforms, so hedge funds and asset managers can see its pricing and liquidity data inside tools they already use. This expands distribution of its data business, a growing, higher-margin revenue source that adds value beyond the buyout.
It is the main new business development this period and shows where future growth could come from.

30 Jul – 6 Aug 2026

▲1▼1

ICE's $167/share buyout of MarketAxess drives the stock, but fairness questions emerge

ICE acquisition at $167/share Intercontinental Exchange agreed to buy MarketAxess for $167 per share in cash, a 33% premium to the prior close. This sets a firm floor under the stock and is the main reason shares jumped over 30% this period.
This is the single event that explains the stock's move and sets its value.
Fairness investigation into sale price Law firm Wohl & Fruchter is investigating whether the $167 sale price is fair, noting it is below the 52-week high of $200.90 and a UBS target of $200. Some shareholders call it a low-ball offer. This could delay or raise the deal price, creating uncertainty.
It is the main counterweight to the buyout and could affect the final price shareholders receive.