← Colgate-Palmolive overview

Colgate-Palmolive vs Crude Palm Oil: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL)

Q3 2026
▼3▲1

Colgate's strong Q2 offset by weak U.S. demand and index removal

  • Q2 earnings beat and raised guidance Colgate's second-quarter profit beat expectations and management raised its full-year outlook. Gross margin expanded to 61.5%, free cash flow margin neared 18%, and the dividend rose for the 63rd straight year.

    This is the main positive force behind the stock's year-to-date gain.

  • U.S. volumes weak as shoppers trade down U.S. sales volumes are flat or falling as shoppers switch to cheaper store-brand products. North America consumption dropped about 1% and shipments fell about 3%, with management calling the U.S. performance unsatisfactory.

    This is the biggest drag on the stock and a key risk to future growth.

  • Tariff and raw material cost pressures Rising tariffs and raw material costs are clouding Colgate's profit outlook. These higher expenses could squeeze margins if the company cannot raise prices enough to offset them.

    This is a new cost headwind that threatens profitability.

  • Removal from S&P 100 forced index selling Colgate was removed from the S&P 100 index, which forced index-tracking funds to sell the stock. This technical selling pressure weighed on the share price during the period.

    This is a specific event that created downward pressure on the stock.

August 2026
▼3▲1

Colgate's strong Q2 offset by weak U.S. demand and index removal

  • Q2 earnings beat and raised guidance Colgate's second-quarter profit beat expectations and management raised its full-year outlook. Gross margin expanded to 61.5%, free cash flow margin neared 18%, and the dividend rose for the 63rd straight year.

    This is the main positive force behind the stock's year-to-date gain.

  • U.S. volumes weak as shoppers trade down U.S. sales volumes are flat or falling as shoppers switch to cheaper store-brand products. North America consumption dropped about 1% and shipments fell about 3%, with management calling the U.S. performance unsatisfactory.

    This is the biggest drag on the stock and a key risk to future growth.

  • Tariff and raw material cost pressures Rising tariffs and raw material costs are clouding Colgate's profit outlook. These higher expenses could squeeze margins if the company cannot raise prices enough to offset them.

    This is a new cost headwind that threatens profitability.

  • Removal from S&P 100 forced index selling Colgate was removed from the S&P 100 index, which forced index-tracking funds to sell the stock. This technical selling pressure weighed on the share price during the period.

    This is a specific event that created downward pressure on the stock.

Latest
▲2▼1

Colgate's profit engine hums, but U.S. shoppers stay cautious

  • Margins and cash flow stay elite Colgate's gross margin is about 60%, free cash flow margin near 18%, and Q2 gross margin expanded to 61.5%. Management raised 2026 gross margin guidance to roughly flat and lifted EPS growth outlook to mid-single digits. Strong cash generation supports dividends and buybacks, underpinning the stock.

    Shows the core financial strength that supports CL's valuation despite slow growth.

  • U.S. demand weak, competition intense North America consumption fell about 1% and shipments dropped roughly 3% in Q2 as shoppers bought less and retailers cut stock. CEO called U.S. performance unsatisfactory. This limits growth in Colgate's home market and pressures pricing power, a key drag on the stock.

    Identifies the main operational weakness weighing on CL's growth outlook.

  • Dividend streak extended, income appeal Colgate raised its quarterly dividend to $0.53, marking 63 straight years of increases, and declared the next payment. The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 in 2026 with about a 20% gain. Reliable income and a long track record attract investors, supporting the share price.

    Highlights the shareholder return that makes CL attractive to income-focused investors.

  • Premium innovation push to revive growth Colgate is boosting advertising and premium oral care products like Optic White Pro Series to spark a North America recovery. Management expects gradual improvement but warns it won't be smooth. Higher spending could lift sales, but may squeeze margins if demand stays soft.

    Explains the key strategic bet that will determine whether CL reaccelerates growth.

▼2

Colgate beats on earnings but tariffs, weak volumes and index exit weigh

  • Q2 earnings beat, guidance raised, but tariff costs cloud outlook Colgate beat profit and sales estimates, with margins expanding and full-year earnings guidance raised. But management flagged rising tariff costs and raw materials, and the stock fell 1.8% on the day. The market is weighing solid results against cost pressures ahead.

    This is the core earnings event that sets the tone for the period and explains the mixed price reaction.

  • U.S. volumes flat as shoppers switch to cheaper store brands Colgate's U.S. sales volumes were flat or falling as shoppers trade down to private-label and newer brands. This squeezes growth in its home market and pressures pricing power. It's a broad industry problem, but it directly limits how fast Colgate can grow.

    This demand weakness is a key reason the stock struggles despite the earnings beat.

  • Removed from S&P 100 index, forcing some funds to sell Colgate is being dropped from the S&P 100 index, which means index-tracking funds must sell their shares. That creates mechanical selling pressure around the change date. It doesn't reflect the business itself, but it can push the price down in the short term.

    This is a concrete, new event that adds selling pressure on the stock.

  • Exploring sale of Softsoap, Irish Spring and other personal care brands Colgate is reportedly working with Goldman Sachs to sell some mass-market personal care brands, potentially raising over $1 billion. Selling slower-growing brands could sharpen focus on core oral care, but it also means giving up revenue. The net effect on the stock is unclear.

    This is a major strategic move that could reshape the company and is the latest news in the period.

Crude Palm Oil (PALMOIL.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

Latest
▲3

Palm oil supported by biofuel demand, tight supply, India tax cut

  • India cuts palm oil import tax, boosting demand India cut its import duty on crude palm oil from 10% to 5%, making it cheaper to buy ahead of festivals. India buys most of its cooking oil from abroad, so this directly lifts demand for palm oil and supports higher prices.

    This is a fresh, concrete demand boost from the world's biggest palm oil buyer.

  • Indonesian wildfires threaten palm supply Wildfires in Indonesia, the largest palm oil producer, have damaged over 200,000 hectares and are disrupting harvesting. Smoke and dry weather may hurt fruit yields, tightening global supply and pushing crude palm oil prices up.

    A major supply threat in the top producer is a key force behind higher palm oil prices.

  • Biofuel policy keeps palm oil demand strong Thailand's government is promoting palm oil as an energy crop for biodiesel and future bio jet fuel, creating steady domestic demand. This has kept farm-gate palm prices strong for 25 straight weeks, supporting crude palm oil prices.

    Government biofuel support is a persistent demand driver keeping palm oil prices elevated.

  • El Nino cuts output now, but expansion adds future supply El Nino delayed palm harvests, cutting raw material supply and raising costs for processors like PHAT and SMO. At the same time, PCE and PHAT are expanding mill capacity, which will add supply later and could cap price gains.

    It shows both the current supply tightness lifting prices and the counterweight of future capacity growth.

▲4

Palm oil climbs on festival demand, biofuel policy, and El Niño supply fears

  • India's festival buying spree lifts palm oil demand India's July vegetable oil imports hit a 10-month high, with palm oil jumping 50% to 733,000 tonnes as refiners stock up for the August-November festival season. This strong demand from the world's biggest buyer helps draw down stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia, supporting prices.

    This is a major new demand event that directly tightens global palm oil inventories and pushes prices up.

  • Thailand's B20 subsidy and EV loan boost palm oil use Thailand's Finance Ministry will use a 200 billion baht loan to subsidize public vehicles switching to EVs and to support B20 fuel, which contains more palm oil. This policy increases domestic palm oil demand, helping farmers and supporting prices.

    A new government policy that directly raises palm oil consumption, adding to demand-side price support.

  • Super El Niño threat could cut Southeast Asian palm output The probability of a super El Niño has risen to 95%, which would bring drought to Southeast Asian palm oil regions and lower production. Reduced supply would tighten the market and push prices higher, as traders factor in a weather premium.

    A new supply-side risk that could significantly reduce palm oil output and drive prices up.

  • SMO expands capacity and sees strong Q3 on higher exports Thai palm oil producer SMO reported higher revenue and expects Q3 recovery from increased crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is also investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant, signaling confidence in future demand and supporting market sentiment.

    New company-level signals of rising exports and capacity expansion reinforce the positive demand outlook for palm oil.