← Cleveland-Cliffs overview

Cleveland-Cliffs vs ArcelorMittal SA: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Cliffs' profit surge and defense win offset by tariff and downgrade risks

  • Profit triples and guidance doubles Cleveland-Cliffs' Q2 profit tripled and Q3 guidance doubled on strong domestic demand, lifting shares 16% during the quarter. This shows the company's core business is performing much better than expected.

    This is the main positive force that drove the stock higher in Q3.

  • Defense contract and DOE-funded upgrade Cliffs won a five-year, up-to-$400M defense contract for electrical steel and advanced a $1B Middletown upgrade, half-funded by the DOE. This extends furnace life and cuts costs, supporting future earnings.

    These new contracts and investments are fresh positive developments that improve the company's outlook.

  • Tariff cuts and Canadian retaliation A tentative US-Canada framework would halve tariffs to 25%, pressuring US steel prices. Canada's retaliation already forced Stelco to idle Hamilton Works, cutting 350 jobs. These trade tensions weigh on the sector.

    This is a key risk that could hurt Cliffs' pricing power and overall industry health.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrade and balance-sheet stress Morgan Stanley downgraded CLF to Equal-weight, warning the steel rally is peaking and largely priced in. The stock remains down for 2026 amid balance-sheet stress, suggesting limited upside from here.

    This analyst downgrade and financial concern act as a counterweight to the positive news.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Cliffs Q2 Profit Triples, Q3 Guidance Doubles; Tariff Risks Linger

  • Q2 profit triples and Q3 guidance doubles Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q2 2026 profit tripled and Q3 guidance doubled on strong domestic demand, sending shares up 16%. This shows the company is earning much more money than expected.

    This is the main new positive event that drove the stock higher this period.

  • $1B Middletown upgrade extends furnace life A $1 billion upgrade at the Middletown plant, half-funded by a Department of Energy grant, will extend the blast furnace's life and lower costs. This long-term investment supports future profitability.

    It is a new capital project that improves efficiency and is partly funded by a grant.

  • Analysts raise earnings estimates by 28% Analysts increased their earnings estimates for Cliffs by 28%, citing cost reductions and a cheap valuation. Higher estimates often attract more investors and can lift the stock price.

    This reflects improving market expectations, a key driver of stock performance.

  • US-Canada tariff framework cuts steel tariffs to 25% A tentative US-Canada framework would halve steel tariffs to 25%, potentially pressuring US steel prices. Canada's retaliatory tariffs already forced Stelco to idle Hamilton Works lines, cutting 350 jobs and dropping shares 8%.

    This is a new negative development that creates uncertainty and drags on the stock.

Latest
▲3▼1

Cliffs' cost cuts and US tariff protection offset Canada trade damage

  • Cost cuts and cheap valuation support the stock Cliffs is cutting unit costs through plant optimization, internal coke and feedstock integration, and lower fixed costs, which should boost free cash flow and reduce debt. The stock trades well below a widely followed fair value estimate, so investors see it as beaten down and cheap.

    Explains the main company-specific force lifting CLF: self-help cost cuts and a discounted valuation.

  • Analysts raise profit forecasts as results improve Analysts lifted their earnings estimates for Cliffs by about 28% in a month, expecting a big jump in quarterly profit and revenue. That improving outlook, plus higher steel prices from US import tariffs, is a key reason the stock can move up even while the company is still losing money.

    Shows the improving earnings trend and tariff-driven pricing that underpin the positive case for CLF.

  • Canada trade war hits Cliffs' Canadian operations Canada's retaliatory tariffs and the US 50% steel tariff have forced Cliffs' Canadian subsidiary Stelco to idle its Hamilton Works cold-rolled and coated lines, cutting about 350 jobs. The stock fell nearly 8% on the news, showing the trade fight is a real drag on Cliffs.

    Captures the main negative force this period: direct tariff damage to Cliffs' Canadian business and the market reaction.

  • Government-backed plant upgrade cuts long-term risk Cliffs confirmed a $1 billion modernization of its Middletown, Ohio steel plant, half-funded by a $500 million US Department of Energy award. The work keeps production running and addresses the risk of an aging, carbon-heavy asset base that could otherwise require heavy catch-up spending.

    A new company-specific investment that reduces long-term asset and cost risk, supporting the stock.

July 2026
▲1▼1

Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

  • Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.

    A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.

    A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.

  • U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.

    A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

▲1▼1

Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

  • Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.

    A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.

    A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.

  • U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.

    A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

▲2▼1

Cliffs' profit surge, $1B Ohio upgrade, and lower Canada tariffs

  • Q2 profit tripled, Q3 guidance doubled Cliffs' second-quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter to $286 million, and management expects it to roughly double again to about $575 million in the third quarter. Strong domestic steel demand and subdued imports are driving the improvement, which is why the stock jumped 16%.

    This is the core earnings turnaround that explains why CLF moved sharply higher this period.

  • US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel A tentative US-Canada trade framework would cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with possible quotas. That means more Canadian steel can enter the US at lower cost, pressuring prices for US producers. CLF and peers fell up to 7.5% on the news.

    This is the main new headwind that pushed CLF shares down during the period.

  • $1B Middletown upgrade with $500M DOE grant Cliffs will spend $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works in Ohio, half-funded by a US Department of Energy grant. The project extends the blast furnace's life and cuts costs, keeping it competitive in automotive steel. Shares rose 7% on the news.

    This is a major new capital investment that improves CLF's long-term cost position and lifted the stock.

  • Lower Canada tariffs also help Stelco The same tentative US-Canada deal that pressures US steel prices could benefit Cliffs' Canadian Stelco operations by reducing tariffs on its exports. This partly offsets the negative impact on Cliffs' US mills, making the overall tariff effect mixed rather than purely negative.

    It shows a real counterweight to the tariff headwind, giving a fair picture of the net impact on CLF.

ArcelorMittal SA (MT.AS)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

ArcelorMittal Q3: AI deals, buybacks, policy wins offset Ukraine and profit setbacks

  • AI and tech partnerships ArcelorMittal partnered with AWS and Microsoft to use artificial intelligence in steelmaking, aiming to cut costs and improve efficiency. An Amazon deal to supply low-carbon XCarb steel also opened a new sales channel.

    These partnerships are new this quarter and signal innovation and demand for greener steel, supporting the stock.

  • Capital returns and policy tailwinds Rising EBITDA and share buybacks returned cash to shareholders. Tighter EU import quotas and efforts to ease carbon rules helped European steel prices, while a UBS upgrade boosted sentiment.

    These factors directly improve profitability and investor confidence, driving the stock higher.

  • Brazil expansion for higher-margin steel The Pecém expansion in Brazil is designed to produce higher-margin steel, improving the company's product mix and profitability. This strategic move supports long-term growth.

    It is a new initiative this quarter that enhances future earnings potential.

  • Ukraine war disruption and profit weakness Missile and drone strikes halted output at Kryvyi Rih, killing or injuring workers. Q2 net profit fell sharply, and the Italy JV exit ceded upside to a rival, raising strategy doubts.

    These are major operational and financial setbacks that weigh on the stock and offset positive developments.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Buybacks, EU import quotas and UBS upgrade lift ArcelorMittal

  • Buyback shrinks share count ArcelorMittal finished buying back 10 million shares and immediately started a second 10 million share tranche, cancelling the stock. Fewer shares means each remaining share owns more of the company's profit, which supports the share price over time.

    A concrete capital return that directly lifts per-share value.

  • EU quotas tighten steel supply New EU safeguards cap duty-free steel imports at 18.3 million tonnes a year, with a 50% tariff above that, removing about 9 million tonnes of imports. Less foreign steel should raise European prices, and UBS says every €10 per tonne adds roughly $325M to ArcelorMittal's earnings.

    The main structural force behind higher European steel prices and profits.

  • UBS upgrade on oversold shares UBS upgraded ArcelorMittal to Buy with a €71 target, up from €61, saying shares fell nearly 20% in a month and are oversold. It expects an EU steel price rally and sees ArcelorMittal as the most liquid way to play European steel; the stock rose 4.6%.

    A major broker re-rating that names the specific upside case.

  • Italy JV exit cedes upside ArcelorMittal walked away from buying the remaining 51% of its Italian joint venture after Rome imposed conditions limiting job and structural cuts. It avoids extra spending and regulatory risk, but hands potential upside to rival Acciaieria Arvedi and raises doubts about its Italian strategy.

    The clearest counterweight: a lost growth opportunity and strategic setback.

Latest
▲3▼1

Buybacks, EU import quotas and UBS upgrade lift ArcelorMittal

  • Buyback shrinks share count ArcelorMittal finished buying back 10 million shares and immediately started a second 10 million share tranche, cancelling the stock. Fewer shares means each remaining share owns more of the company's profit, which supports the share price over time.

    A concrete capital return that directly lifts per-share value.

  • EU quotas tighten steel supply New EU safeguards cap duty-free steel imports at 18.3 million tonnes a year, with a 50% tariff above that, removing about 9 million tonnes of imports. Less foreign steel should raise European prices, and UBS says every €10 per tonne adds roughly $325M to ArcelorMittal's earnings.

    The main structural force behind higher European steel prices and profits.

  • UBS upgrade on oversold shares UBS upgraded ArcelorMittal to Buy with a €71 target, up from €61, saying shares fell nearly 20% in a month and are oversold. It expects an EU steel price rally and sees ArcelorMittal as the most liquid way to play European steel; the stock rose 4.6%.

    A major broker re-rating that names the specific upside case.

  • Italy JV exit cedes upside ArcelorMittal walked away from buying the remaining 51% of its Italian joint venture after Rome imposed conditions limiting job and structural cuts. It avoids extra spending and regulatory risk, but hands potential upside to rival Acciaieria Arvedi and raises doubts about its Italian strategy.

    The clearest counterweight: a lost growth opportunity and strategic setback.

September 2026
▲2▼2

ArcelorMittal: Ukraine strikes halt output, Brazil expansion and AI push offset

  • Second missile strike halts Kryvyi Rih steel output A ballistic missile hit ArcelorMittal's Kryvyi Rih plant in Ukraine, killing two contractors and stopping primary steel production while ironmaking complex #1 is assessed. This is the second strike in five weeks, so lost output and repair costs weigh on earnings and the share price.

    Directly hits production and earnings, the clearest negative force on MT.AS this period.

  • Earlier drone attack injured workers at same plant In mid-August a large Russian drone and missile attack on Kryvyi Rih injured 13 ArcelorMittal employees and killed one. It showed the war is repeatedly disrupting the company's Ukrainian assets, adding risk and cost that pressure the stock.

    First of the two strikes; sets up the recurring war risk to ArcelorMittal's assets.

  • Brazil Pecém mill expansion targets higher-margin steel ArcelorMittal aims to decide by year-end on a $961M expansion of its Pecém mill in Brazil, adding a 1.5M-ton hot-rolled coil line. Turning cheap slab into higher-value rolled steel should lift future profits, supporting the share price.

    A concrete growth investment that improves the long-term earnings mix.

  • Microsoft Azure and AI deal to cut costs over time ArcelorMittal expanded its Microsoft partnership, making Azure its main cloud platform and embedding AI and data tools across its IT systems. The goal is lower legacy IT costs and better efficiency, a slow-building positive for margins and the stock.

    A structural efficiency driver that supports profitability beyond daily price moves.

▲2▼2

ArcelorMittal: Ukraine strikes halt output, Brazil expansion and AI push offset

  • Second missile strike halts Kryvyi Rih steel output A ballistic missile hit ArcelorMittal's Kryvyi Rih plant in Ukraine, killing two contractors and stopping primary steel production while ironmaking complex #1 is assessed. This is the second strike in five weeks, so lost output and repair costs weigh on earnings and the share price.

    Directly hits production and earnings, the clearest negative force on MT.AS this period.

  • Earlier drone attack injured workers at same plant In mid-August a large Russian drone and missile attack on Kryvyi Rih injured 13 ArcelorMittal employees and killed one. It showed the war is repeatedly disrupting the company's Ukrainian assets, adding risk and cost that pressure the stock.

    First of the two strikes; sets up the recurring war risk to ArcelorMittal's assets.

  • Brazil Pecém mill expansion targets higher-margin steel ArcelorMittal aims to decide by year-end on a $961M expansion of its Pecém mill in Brazil, adding a 1.5M-ton hot-rolled coil line. Turning cheap slab into higher-value rolled steel should lift future profits, supporting the share price.

    A concrete growth investment that improves the long-term earnings mix.

  • Microsoft Azure and AI deal to cut costs over time ArcelorMittal expanded its Microsoft partnership, making Azure its main cloud platform and embedding AI and data tools across its IT systems. The goal is lower legacy IT costs and better efficiency, a slow-building positive for margins and the stock.

    A structural efficiency driver that supports profitability beyond daily price moves.

July 2026
▲2

ArcelorMittal: AI deal, ETS relief push, mixed Q2 profit

  • AI partnership and Amazon steel supply deal ArcelorMittal is teaming with Amazon Web Services to use AI across its steelmaking, which should cut costs and lift efficiency. Amazon will also buy lower-carbon XCarb steel for years, giving a steady new customer. Both support future profits and the share price.

    New technology and demand news that directly boosts ArcelorMittal's earnings outlook.

  • Steelmakers push for softer EU carbon rules ArcelorMittal and two peers asked the EU to pause rising carbon-permit costs until cheap power, hydrogen and carbon capture are ready. If Brussels listens, it lowers a big cost burden. The EU is now reviewing the system, so this is a live positive for the stock.

    Regulatory relief would directly cut ArcelorMittal's costs and improve margins.

  • Q2 profit falls but underlying earnings rise Net profit dropped to $683 million from $1.79 billion a year ago, yet EBITDA rose to $2.06 billion and sales grew. The company expects higher shipments ahead and sees $1.8 billion more EBITDA from projects. The headline profit fall may worry some, but the operating trend is improving.

    Latest earnings show a mixed picture that investors are weighing right now.

▲2

ArcelorMittal: AI deal, ETS relief push, mixed Q2 profit

  • AI partnership and Amazon steel supply deal ArcelorMittal is teaming with Amazon Web Services to use AI across its steelmaking, which should cut costs and lift efficiency. Amazon will also buy lower-carbon XCarb steel for years, giving a steady new customer. Both support future profits and the share price.

    New technology and demand news that directly boosts ArcelorMittal's earnings outlook.

  • Steelmakers push for softer EU carbon rules ArcelorMittal and two peers asked the EU to pause rising carbon-permit costs until cheap power, hydrogen and carbon capture are ready. If Brussels listens, it lowers a big cost burden. The EU is now reviewing the system, so this is a live positive for the stock.

    Regulatory relief would directly cut ArcelorMittal's costs and improve margins.

  • Q2 profit falls but underlying earnings rise Net profit dropped to $683 million from $1.79 billion a year ago, yet EBITDA rose to $2.06 billion and sales grew. The company expects higher shipments ahead and sees $1.8 billion more EBITDA from projects. The headline profit fall may worry some, but the operating trend is improving.

    Latest earnings show a mixed picture that investors are weighing right now.