← Cleveland-Cliffs overview

Cleveland-Cliffs vs US Dollar/Canadian Dollar FX Spot Rate: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Cliffs' profit surge and defense win offset by tariff and downgrade risks

  • Profit triples and guidance doubles Cleveland-Cliffs' Q2 profit tripled and Q3 guidance doubled on strong domestic demand, lifting shares 16% during the quarter. This shows the company's core business is performing much better than expected.

    This is the main positive force that drove the stock higher in Q3.

  • Defense contract and DOE-funded upgrade Cliffs won a five-year, up-to-$400M defense contract for electrical steel and advanced a $1B Middletown upgrade, half-funded by the DOE. This extends furnace life and cuts costs, supporting future earnings.

    These new contracts and investments are fresh positive developments that improve the company's outlook.

  • Tariff cuts and Canadian retaliation A tentative US-Canada framework would halve tariffs to 25%, pressuring US steel prices. Canada's retaliation already forced Stelco to idle Hamilton Works, cutting 350 jobs. These trade tensions weigh on the sector.

    This is a key risk that could hurt Cliffs' pricing power and overall industry health.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrade and balance-sheet stress Morgan Stanley downgraded CLF to Equal-weight, warning the steel rally is peaking and largely priced in. The stock remains down for 2026 amid balance-sheet stress, suggesting limited upside from here.

    This analyst downgrade and financial concern act as a counterweight to the positive news.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Cliffs Q2 Profit Triples, Q3 Guidance Doubles; Tariff Risks Linger

  • Q2 profit triples and Q3 guidance doubles Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q2 2026 profit tripled and Q3 guidance doubled on strong domestic demand, sending shares up 16%. This shows the company is earning much more money than expected.

    This is the main new positive event that drove the stock higher this period.

  • $1B Middletown upgrade extends furnace life A $1 billion upgrade at the Middletown plant, half-funded by a Department of Energy grant, will extend the blast furnace's life and lower costs. This long-term investment supports future profitability.

    It is a new capital project that improves efficiency and is partly funded by a grant.

  • Analysts raise earnings estimates by 28% Analysts increased their earnings estimates for Cliffs by 28%, citing cost reductions and a cheap valuation. Higher estimates often attract more investors and can lift the stock price.

    This reflects improving market expectations, a key driver of stock performance.

  • US-Canada tariff framework cuts steel tariffs to 25% A tentative US-Canada framework would halve steel tariffs to 25%, potentially pressuring US steel prices. Canada's retaliatory tariffs already forced Stelco to idle Hamilton Works lines, cutting 350 jobs and dropping shares 8%.

    This is a new negative development that creates uncertainty and drags on the stock.

Latest
▲3▼1

Cliffs' cost cuts and US tariff protection offset Canada trade damage

  • Cost cuts and cheap valuation support the stock Cliffs is cutting unit costs through plant optimization, internal coke and feedstock integration, and lower fixed costs, which should boost free cash flow and reduce debt. The stock trades well below a widely followed fair value estimate, so investors see it as beaten down and cheap.

    Explains the main company-specific force lifting CLF: self-help cost cuts and a discounted valuation.

  • Analysts raise profit forecasts as results improve Analysts lifted their earnings estimates for Cliffs by about 28% in a month, expecting a big jump in quarterly profit and revenue. That improving outlook, plus higher steel prices from US import tariffs, is a key reason the stock can move up even while the company is still losing money.

    Shows the improving earnings trend and tariff-driven pricing that underpin the positive case for CLF.

  • Canada trade war hits Cliffs' Canadian operations Canada's retaliatory tariffs and the US 50% steel tariff have forced Cliffs' Canadian subsidiary Stelco to idle its Hamilton Works cold-rolled and coated lines, cutting about 350 jobs. The stock fell nearly 8% on the news, showing the trade fight is a real drag on Cliffs.

    Captures the main negative force this period: direct tariff damage to Cliffs' Canadian business and the market reaction.

  • Government-backed plant upgrade cuts long-term risk Cliffs confirmed a $1 billion modernization of its Middletown, Ohio steel plant, half-funded by a $500 million US Department of Energy award. The work keeps production running and addresses the risk of an aging, carbon-heavy asset base that could otherwise require heavy catch-up spending.

    A new company-specific investment that reduces long-term asset and cost risk, supporting the stock.

July 2026
▲1▼1

Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

  • Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.

    A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.

    A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.

  • U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.

    A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

▲1▼1

Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

  • Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.

    A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.

    A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.

  • U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.

    A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

▲2▼1

Cliffs' profit surge, $1B Ohio upgrade, and lower Canada tariffs

  • Q2 profit tripled, Q3 guidance doubled Cliffs' second-quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter to $286 million, and management expects it to roughly double again to about $575 million in the third quarter. Strong domestic steel demand and subdued imports are driving the improvement, which is why the stock jumped 16%.

    This is the core earnings turnaround that explains why CLF moved sharply higher this period.

  • US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel A tentative US-Canada trade framework would cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with possible quotas. That means more Canadian steel can enter the US at lower cost, pressuring prices for US producers. CLF and peers fell up to 7.5% on the news.

    This is the main new headwind that pushed CLF shares down during the period.

  • $1B Middletown upgrade with $500M DOE grant Cliffs will spend $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works in Ohio, half-funded by a US Department of Energy grant. The project extends the blast furnace's life and cuts costs, keeping it competitive in automotive steel. Shares rose 7% on the news.

    This is a major new capital investment that improves CLF's long-term cost position and lifted the stock.

  • Lower Canada tariffs also help Stelco The same tentative US-Canada deal that pressures US steel prices could benefit Cliffs' Canadian Stelco operations by reducing tariffs on its exports. This partly offsets the negative impact on Cliffs' US mills, making the overall tariff effect mixed rather than purely negative.

    It shows a real counterweight to the tariff headwind, giving a fair picture of the net impact on CLF.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar FX Spot Rate (USDCAD.FOREX)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

USDCAD climbs on Fed hike bets and Canadian job losses

  • Fed hike bets and safe-haven demand lift USD Expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, plus safe-haven buying, supported the US dollar. Higher US rates attract global capital, pushing USD/CAD higher.

    This is a key new driver of USDCAD strength in Q3.

  • US-Canada trade retaliation and sticky inflation boost Fed odds Escalating trade retaliation between the US and Canada, along with US inflation stuck at 3.7%, increased the chance of Fed rate hikes. This widened the rate gap and pushed USD/CAD up.

    Trade tensions and inflation are new factors driving the pair higher.

  • Canadian jobs shock widens rate gap Canada lost 41,700 jobs while the US gained 162,000, and September saw another 68,300 Canadian job losses. This cut Bank of Canada hike odds, widening the rate gap and boosting USD/CAD.

    Canadian labor market weakness is a new negative for CAD.

  • Tariff cuts, steady BoC, oil rebound cap USD/CAD US-Canada tariff cuts, a steady Bank of Canada at 2.25%, rebounding oil, and fading Fed hike bets initially pulled USD/CAD toward 1.38. A record Canadian trade surplus also failed to lift the loonie.

    These are counterweights that limited USDCAD's rise.

September 2026
▲4

Trade War and Weak Jobs Keep Canadian Dollar Under Pressure

  • US-Canada trade war escalates, hitting the loonie Trump criticized the Canadian dollar's value and Canada's C$27.6B retaliation tariffs took effect, deepening the trade fight. Investors worry about Canada's export-dependent economy, so they sell the loonie and buy the US dollar, pushing USDCAD up.

    The escalating trade conflict is a core force weakening the Canadian dollar and lifting USDCAD.

  • CIBC sees USDCAD at 1.42 as Fed tightens, BoC holds CIBC expects the Fed to keep raising rates while the Bank of Canada stays put, keeping the Canadian dollar weak. Higher US rates attract money to the US dollar, so USDCAD is forecast to average 1.42 in late 2026.

    This bank forecast explains the interest-rate gap that is a major driver of USDCAD.

  • Record trade surplus fails to lift the loonie Canada's trade surplus hit a four-year high, but the Canadian dollar stayed near an 18-month low. Broad US dollar strength and worries about Canada's economy outweighed the good trade news, keeping USDCAD elevated.

    It shows that even positive Canadian data is not enough to strengthen the loonie against a strong US dollar.

  • Surprise job losses cut odds of a BoC rate hike Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September, far more than expected, and unemployment rose to 6.5%. With a weakening labor market, the Bank of Canada is less likely to raise rates, making the Canadian dollar less attractive and pushing USDCAD up.

    Weak jobs data directly reduces expectations for higher Canadian interest rates, a key negative for the loonie.

Latest
▲4

Trade War and Weak Jobs Keep Canadian Dollar Under Pressure

  • US-Canada trade war escalates, hitting the loonie Trump criticized the Canadian dollar's value and Canada's C$27.6B retaliation tariffs took effect, deepening the trade fight. Investors worry about Canada's export-dependent economy, so they sell the loonie and buy the US dollar, pushing USDCAD up.

    The escalating trade conflict is a core force weakening the Canadian dollar and lifting USDCAD.

  • CIBC sees USDCAD at 1.42 as Fed tightens, BoC holds CIBC expects the Fed to keep raising rates while the Bank of Canada stays put, keeping the Canadian dollar weak. Higher US rates attract money to the US dollar, so USDCAD is forecast to average 1.42 in late 2026.

    This bank forecast explains the interest-rate gap that is a major driver of USDCAD.

  • Record trade surplus fails to lift the loonie Canada's trade surplus hit a four-year high, but the Canadian dollar stayed near an 18-month low. Broad US dollar strength and worries about Canada's economy outweighed the good trade news, keeping USDCAD elevated.

    It shows that even positive Canadian data is not enough to strengthen the loonie against a strong US dollar.

  • Surprise job losses cut odds of a BoC rate hike Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September, far more than expected, and unemployment rose to 6.5%. With a weakening labor market, the Bank of Canada is less likely to raise rates, making the Canadian dollar less attractive and pushing USDCAD up.

    Weak jobs data directly reduces expectations for higher Canadian interest rates, a key negative for the loonie.

August 2026
▲3▼1

USDCAD swings on trade, rate gaps, and jobs data

  • Tariff cuts and steady BoC weaken USD/CAD US-Canada tariff cuts, a steady Bank of Canada at 2.25%, rebounding oil, and fading Fed hike bets strengthened the Canadian dollar, pulling USDCAD down toward 1.38.

    This explains the main downward force on USDCAD during the period.

  • Fed hike bets and safe-haven demand support USD Even as USDCAD fell, Fed hike expectations and safe-haven demand from US-Iran tensions supported the US dollar, limiting the loonie's gains.

    This shows the counterweight that prevented a larger USDCAD decline.

  • Trade retaliation and inflation boost USD/CAD From late August, escalating US-Canada trade retaliation and sticky US inflation at 3.7% boosted Fed hike odds, pushing USDCAD higher.

    This identifies the key drivers of the late-period reversal upward.

  • Canadian jobs shock widens rate gap A Canadian jobs shock (41,700 losses) versus strong US payrolls (162,000) widened the rate gap, further lifting USDCAD.

    This highlights the labor market divergence that accelerated USDCAD's rise.

▲3

Trade war escalation and rate gap drive USDCAD higher

  • US-Canada trade war escalation weakens CAD The US is considering more trade penalties, and Canada is retaliating with counter-tariffs on $20 billion of US goods. This trade fight hurts Canada's economy, so the Canadian dollar weakens and USDCAD rises.

    Directly explains a key new force pushing USDCAD up this period.

  • Sticky US inflation boosts Fed rate hike odds, supporting USD US inflation stayed high at 3.7%, increasing the chance the Fed raises interest rates. Higher US rates attract global money into dollar assets, so the US dollar strengthens and USDCAD rises.

    Shows a new monetary force widening the US-Canada rate gap in favor of USD.

  • Bank of Canada holds rate but warns on inflation The BoC kept its key rate at 2.25% but said inflation risks are rising. This cautious tone leaves the door open for future hikes, which could support the loonie, but for now the rate gap still favors the US dollar.

    Captures the BoC's latest stance, a key monetary factor with mixed implications for USDCAD.

  • Canadian jobs shock and strong US payrolls widen rate gap Canada lost 41,700 jobs in August while the US added 162,000. This weak Canadian data pressures the BoC to keep rates low, while strong US jobs support higher US rates, pushing USDCAD up.

    A major new data point that directly widens the interest rate differential favoring USD.

▼3▲1

US-Canada tariff cuts lift loonie; Fed-BoC policy gap still supports USD

  • US-Canada tariff deal progress strengthens CAD The US and Canada are close to a deal cutting steel and aluminum tariffs to 25% and autos to 15%, far below the 50% threatened. This reduces the trade penalty on Canada's economy, so the Canadian dollar strengthens and USDCAD falls toward 1.38.

    This is the biggest new force this period, directly lowering USDCAD by improving Canada's trade outlook.

  • Fed rate-hike bets and safe-haven demand support USD Renewed US-Iran tensions and Fed minutes showing some officials favour a hike pushed the dollar up. Higher US rates attract global money into dollar assets, so the USD strengthens and USDCAD rises.

    This is the main counterweight keeping USDCAD elevated despite Canada's tariff relief.

  • Bank of Canada holds at 2.25%, signals steady policy The BoC kept its key rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight time, saying growth is picking up and inflation will ease. A steady BoC, while the Fed may still hike, narrows the rate gap that had favoured the US dollar, weighing on USDCAD.

    It explains the policy backdrop that limits how far USDCAD can rise.

  • Oil rebound and fading Fed hike bets lift CAD Crude oil rebounded after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, and hopes for a US-Iran peace deal plus weaker Fed hike expectations pushed the dollar down. Higher oil helps Canada's commodity-linked economy, so the loonie gains and USDCAD falls.

    It shows a second new force pulling USDCAD lower through oil and shifting rate expectations.

Q2 2026
▲2▼1

Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD; oil and AI hedging flows offer counterweight

  • Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD to seven-month high The Fed's updated dot plot now projects a year-end rate of 3.8%, up from 3.4%, implying a hike in 2026. Higher US rates attract global capital to the dollar, pushing USD/CAD up to 1.4075 and beyond.

    This is the primary new driver of USD/CAD strength this period.

  • Widening US-Canada yield spreads drive CAD slump Scotiabank notes the Canadian dollar has fallen in a near straight line since early May because US interest rates are rising faster than Canada's. That gap makes US assets more attractive, so investors sell CAD and buy USD, pushing USD/CAD higher.

    Explains the sustained trend behind USD/CAD's rise, not just a one-day move.

  • Oil price gains and AI hedging flows support CAD US strikes on Iran lifted oil prices, helping Canada's commodity-linked dollar. Also, AI-driven equity hedging has supported the Canadian dollar while slightly weighing on the US dollar. These forces can push USD/CAD down, but so far they have only slowed its rise.

    Provides the main counterweight to the dominant USD strength story.

June 2026
▲2▼1

Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD; oil and AI hedging flows offer counterweight

  • Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD to seven-month high The Fed's updated dot plot now projects a year-end rate of 3.8%, up from 3.4%, implying a hike in 2026. Higher US rates attract global capital to the dollar, pushing USD/CAD up to 1.4075 and beyond.

    This is the primary new driver of USD/CAD strength this period.

  • Widening US-Canada yield spreads drive CAD slump Scotiabank notes the Canadian dollar has fallen in a near straight line since early May because US interest rates are rising faster than Canada's. That gap makes US assets more attractive, so investors sell CAD and buy USD, pushing USD/CAD higher.

    Explains the sustained trend behind USD/CAD's rise, not just a one-day move.

  • Oil price gains and AI hedging flows support CAD US strikes on Iran lifted oil prices, helping Canada's commodity-linked dollar. Also, AI-driven equity hedging has supported the Canadian dollar while slightly weighing on the US dollar. These forces can push USD/CAD down, but so far they have only slowed its rise.

    Provides the main counterweight to the dominant USD strength story.

▲2▼1

Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD; oil and AI hedging flows offer counterweight

  • Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD to seven-month high The Fed's updated dot plot now projects a year-end rate of 3.8%, up from 3.4%, implying a hike in 2026. Higher US rates attract global capital to the dollar, pushing USD/CAD up to 1.4075 and beyond.

    This is the primary new driver of USD/CAD strength this period.

  • Widening US-Canada yield spreads drive CAD slump Scotiabank notes the Canadian dollar has fallen in a near straight line since early May because US interest rates are rising faster than Canada's. That gap makes US assets more attractive, so investors sell CAD and buy USD, pushing USD/CAD higher.

    Explains the sustained trend behind USD/CAD's rise, not just a one-day move.

  • Oil price gains and AI hedging flows support CAD US strikes on Iran lifted oil prices, helping Canada's commodity-linked dollar. Also, AI-driven equity hedging has supported the Canadian dollar while slightly weighing on the US dollar. These forces can push USD/CAD down, but so far they have only slowed its rise.

    Provides the main counterweight to the dominant USD strength story.