Thai Coconut vs Mondelez International: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Thai Coconut Public Company Limited (COCOCO.BK)

Q3 202623 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

▲3▼1

COCOCO: profit surge and Philippine plant offset US tariff drag

US 12.5% tariff on Thai goods pressures exports The US imposed a 12.5% tariff on Thai imports, and COCOCO earns about 19% of revenue from the US. That makes its coconut products more expensive there and can slow orders. The hit is softened because buyers already absorbed a bigger 19% tariff before, and the new Philippine factory will soon make goods for the US from a country with a better tax deal.
This is the main force pushing COCOCO's price down this period.
Q2 and first-half profit jump on lower coconut costs COCOCO's second-quarter profit rose 58.5% from a year earlier to 122.6 million baht, and first-half profit climbed 44% to 205 million baht. The gain came from strong coconut milk and pet food sales in the US and Europe, cheaper coconuts, and better pricing. Higher profit makes the stock more attractive and supports the price.
Strong earnings are the biggest positive driver for the stock.
Yuanta keeps Buy and 8 baht target, sees 142.6% profit jump Yuanta Securities maintained its Buy rating and 8.00 baht fair value, expecting 2026 profit to surge 142.6% to 544 million baht. It cited the export high season, a heatwave boosting drink demand, full 7-Eleven sales, and falling coconut costs. A broker's strong outlook often pulls buyers in and lifts the price.
Analyst backing gives a clear positive signal for the stock.
Philippine plant to cut costs and open Europe, US deals COCOCO is building a factory in the Philippines, set to start production by early 2027. Philippine coconuts cost about 20% less than Thai ones, and the plant can sell to Europe under a free trade deal. It also helps avoid US tariffs. This long-term plan supports the stock by promising cheaper output and more customers.
The new plant is a key structural positive that offsets tariff risk.

August 202623 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

▲3▼1

COCOCO: profit surge and Philippine plant offset US tariff drag

US 12.5% tariff on Thai goods pressures exports The US imposed a 12.5% tariff on Thai imports, and COCOCO earns about 19% of revenue from the US. That makes its coconut products more expensive there and can slow orders. The hit is softened because buyers already absorbed a bigger 19% tariff before, and the new Philippine factory will soon make goods for the US from a country with a better tax deal.
This is the main force pushing COCOCO's price down this period.
Q2 and first-half profit jump on lower coconut costs COCOCO's second-quarter profit rose 58.5% from a year earlier to 122.6 million baht, and first-half profit climbed 44% to 205 million baht. The gain came from strong coconut milk and pet food sales in the US and Europe, cheaper coconuts, and better pricing. Higher profit makes the stock more attractive and supports the price.
Strong earnings are the biggest positive driver for the stock.
Yuanta keeps Buy and 8 baht target, sees 142.6% profit jump Yuanta Securities maintained its Buy rating and 8.00 baht fair value, expecting 2026 profit to surge 142.6% to 544 million baht. It cited the export high season, a heatwave boosting drink demand, full 7-Eleven sales, and falling coconut costs. A broker's strong outlook often pulls buyers in and lifts the price.
Analyst backing gives a clear positive signal for the stock.
Philippine plant to cut costs and open Europe, US deals COCOCO is building a factory in the Philippines, set to start production by early 2027. Philippine coconuts cost about 20% less than Thai ones, and the plant can sell to Europe under a free trade deal. It also helps avoid US tariffs. This long-term plan supports the stock by promising cheaper output and more customers.
The new plant is a key structural positive that offsets tariff risk.

Latest23 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

▲3▼1

COCOCO: profit surge and Philippine plant offset US tariff drag

US 12.5% tariff on Thai goods pressures exports The US imposed a 12.5% tariff on Thai imports, and COCOCO earns about 19% of revenue from the US. That makes its coconut products more expensive there and can slow orders. The hit is softened because buyers already absorbed a bigger 19% tariff before, and the new Philippine factory will soon make goods for the US from a country with a better tax deal.
This is the main force pushing COCOCO's price down this period.
Q2 and first-half profit jump on lower coconut costs COCOCO's second-quarter profit rose 58.5% from a year earlier to 122.6 million baht, and first-half profit climbed 44% to 205 million baht. The gain came from strong coconut milk and pet food sales in the US and Europe, cheaper coconuts, and better pricing. Higher profit makes the stock more attractive and supports the price.
Strong earnings are the biggest positive driver for the stock.
Yuanta keeps Buy and 8 baht target, sees 142.6% profit jump Yuanta Securities maintained its Buy rating and 8.00 baht fair value, expecting 2026 profit to surge 142.6% to 544 million baht. It cited the export high season, a heatwave boosting drink demand, full 7-Eleven sales, and falling coconut costs. A broker's strong outlook often pulls buyers in and lifts the price.
Analyst backing gives a clear positive signal for the stock.
Philippine plant to cut costs and open Europe, US deals COCOCO is building a factory in the Philippines, set to start production by early 2027. Philippine coconuts cost about 20% less than Thai ones, and the plant can sell to Europe under a free trade deal. It also helps avoid US tariffs. This long-term plan supports the stock by promising cheaper output and more customers.
The new plant is a key structural positive that offsets tariff risk.

Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)

Q3 202617 Jun – 8 Oct 2026

▼3▲1

Mondelez beats Q2, raises guidance, but cost and regulatory pressures mount

Q2 beat and raised guidance Mondelez beat Q2 estimates and raised 2026 organic growth guidance to at least 2%, helped by emerging-market gains, new products, and sustainability efforts like recycled packaging.
This is the main positive force that supported the stock during the quarter.
Cocoa and sugar cost squeeze Cocoa and sugar costs squeezed operating income and EPS, and a potential record El Niño threatens West African cocoa supplies, adding to margin pressure.
This is a key negative force that weighed on profitability and investor sentiment.
Fed rate-hike signals Fed rate-hike signals raise refinancing costs and reduce dividend appeal, making the stock less attractive to income-focused investors.
This is a new monetary headwind that affected the stock's valuation and appeal.
Regulatory and recall pressures UK junk-food regulations, a Poland shrinkflation probe, and a Cadbury Oreo recall add regulatory pressure, creating uncertainty and potential costs.
These are new regulatory and operational risks that emerged during the quarter.

August 202616 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

▼2▲1

Mondelez Grinds Out Growth as Cocoa and Sugar Costs Bite

Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Mondelez beat Q2 estimates for a fourth straight quarter, with revenue up 4.1% and emerging markets growing 4.4%. Management then raised 2026 organic revenue growth guidance to at least 2%. Steady sales and higher guidance support the stock by showing the snack business is still expanding.
This is the core positive fundamental news of the period and directly supports the share price.
Cocoa and sugar costs squeeze margins Cocoa cost timing already cut year-to-date adjusted operating income 12.8% and EPS 8.8%, with productivity only partly offsetting it. Sugar prices also jumped 13% in six weeks, adding another input cost. Higher costs pressure profits and weigh on the stock.
Rising raw material costs are the main force holding Mondelez's profits and share price back.
Super El Niño threatens West African cocoa crop Jefferies warned a possible record-strength El Niño could bring hotter, drier weather to West Africa before the November-January harvest. About 60% of Mondelez's cocoa comes from Ivory Coast and Ghana. A poor crop would keep cocoa prices high and hurt future margins.
This is a concrete new supply risk that could extend the cocoa cost problem into 2027.
New products and farm investment offset regulatory probes Mondelez launched Toblerone Diamond Truffles with Biscoff through Costco worldwide and invested in a Canadian farm fund to secure crops. But Poland's watchdog is probing possible shrinkflation, and a Cadbury Oreo bar recall added regulatory risk. Growth efforts help; investigations and recalls hurt.
It captures both the new growth initiatives and the fresh regulatory and recall risks affecting the stock.

Latest16 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

▼2▲1

Mondelez Grinds Out Growth as Cocoa and Sugar Costs Bite

Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Mondelez beat Q2 estimates for a fourth straight quarter, with revenue up 4.1% and emerging markets growing 4.4%. Management then raised 2026 organic revenue growth guidance to at least 2%. Steady sales and higher guidance support the stock by showing the snack business is still expanding.
This is the core positive fundamental news of the period and directly supports the share price.
Cocoa and sugar costs squeeze margins Cocoa cost timing already cut year-to-date adjusted operating income 12.8% and EPS 8.8%, with productivity only partly offsetting it. Sugar prices also jumped 13% in six weeks, adding another input cost. Higher costs pressure profits and weigh on the stock.
Rising raw material costs are the main force holding Mondelez's profits and share price back.
Super El Niño threatens West African cocoa crop Jefferies warned a possible record-strength El Niño could bring hotter, drier weather to West Africa before the November-January harvest. About 60% of Mondelez's cocoa comes from Ivory Coast and Ghana. A poor crop would keep cocoa prices high and hurt future margins.
This is a concrete new supply risk that could extend the cocoa cost problem into 2027.
New products and farm investment offset regulatory probes Mondelez launched Toblerone Diamond Truffles with Biscoff through Costco worldwide and invested in a Canadian farm fund to secure crops. But Poland's watchdog is probing possible shrinkflation, and a Cadbury Oreo bar recall added regulatory risk. Growth efforts help; investigations and recalls hurt.
It captures both the new growth initiatives and the fresh regulatory and recall risks affecting the stock.

July 202617 Jun – 29 Jul 2026

▲2▼2

Mondelez Q2 Beat and Raised Outlook Offset by Fed Rate Fears

Q2 Beat and Raised Full-Year Outlook Mondelez reported Q2 revenue of $9.36 billion and adjusted EPS that beat estimates, driven by solid demand for biscuits and chocolate plus price increases. Management raised full-year organic revenue growth guidance to at least 2%, up from flat to up 2%. This directly boosts investor confidence and supports a higher stock price.
This is the most recent and most impactful positive catalyst for MDLZ, showing stronger-than-expected financial performance and improved future guidance.
Fed Signals Potential Rate Hike, Pressuring Dividend Stocks The Federal Reserve held rates steady but hinted at a possible hike, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield up. Higher rate expectations make Mondelez's acquisition-related debt more expensive to refinance and reduce the appeal of its dividend compared to bonds. This weighed on MDLZ shares, which fell 2.1% on the day.
This monetary policy shift directly affects MDLZ's cost of capital and relative attractiveness to income investors, explaining downward price pressure.
UK Junk Food Regulations Threaten Investment Mondelez's CEO warned that tightening UK junk food rules create uncertainty and could deter future factory investment in Britain, its second-biggest market. While no immediate financial impact, this regulatory risk could raise costs and limit growth opportunities in a key region, weighing on long-term sentiment.
This highlights a real regulatory headwind that could affect Mondelez's operations and investment decisions in a major market.
Sustainable Packaging Partnership for Marabou Mondelez partnered with LyondellBasell and others to launch flexible packaging with 75% recycled content for Marabou chocolate bars. This supports sustainability goals, aligns with EU recycled-content rules, and may enhance brand appeal and demand, though the near-term financial impact is modest.
This innovation supports Mondelez's environmental credentials and regulatory compliance, potentially aiding long-term demand and brand strength.

17 Jun – 29 Jul 2026

▲2▼2

Mondelez Q2 Beat and Raised Outlook Offset by Fed Rate Fears

Q2 Beat and Raised Full-Year Outlook Mondelez reported Q2 revenue of $9.36 billion and adjusted EPS that beat estimates, driven by solid demand for biscuits and chocolate plus price increases. Management raised full-year organic revenue growth guidance to at least 2%, up from flat to up 2%. This directly boosts investor confidence and supports a higher stock price.
This is the most recent and most impactful positive catalyst for MDLZ, showing stronger-than-expected financial performance and improved future guidance.
Fed Signals Potential Rate Hike, Pressuring Dividend Stocks The Federal Reserve held rates steady but hinted at a possible hike, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield up. Higher rate expectations make Mondelez's acquisition-related debt more expensive to refinance and reduce the appeal of its dividend compared to bonds. This weighed on MDLZ shares, which fell 2.1% on the day.
This monetary policy shift directly affects MDLZ's cost of capital and relative attractiveness to income investors, explaining downward price pressure.
UK Junk Food Regulations Threaten Investment Mondelez's CEO warned that tightening UK junk food rules create uncertainty and could deter future factory investment in Britain, its second-biggest market. While no immediate financial impact, this regulatory risk could raise costs and limit growth opportunities in a key region, weighing on long-term sentiment.
This highlights a real regulatory headwind that could affect Mondelez's operations and investment decisions in a major market.
Sustainable Packaging Partnership for Marabou Mondelez partnered with LyondellBasell and others to launch flexible packaging with 75% recycled content for Marabou chocolate bars. This supports sustainability goals, aligns with EU recycled-content rules, and may enhance brand appeal and demand, though the near-term financial impact is modest.
This innovation supports Mondelez's environmental credentials and regulatory compliance, potentially aiding long-term demand and brand strength.