← Compass overview

Compass vs Fair Isaac: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Compass Inc (COMP)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Compass hits merger targets but faces rate and antitrust headwinds

  • Record merger-driven results and raised synergies Compass posted record Q2 revenue of $4.31B, $363M adjusted EBITDA, $92M net income, and $694M cash. It hit its $300M Year-1 synergy target five months early and raised it to $330M, guiding Q3 above expectations.

    This shows the core positive driver of strong financial performance and successful merger integration.

  • Dallas expansion via Paragon Realtors merger Compass expanded in Dallas through the Paragon Realtors merger, adding 85 agents. This grows its agent base and market presence, supporting future revenue.

    This is a new growth initiative that contributes to the positive side of the quarter.

  • Rate hike signal and high mortgage rates cool demand New Fed Chair Warsh signaled a possible rate hike, and mortgage rates above 7% are cooling demand. In September, 42% of US homes saw price cuts, and transactions fell year-over-year.

    This is a key negative force weighing on housing demand and Compass's transaction volumes.

  • MLS rejections raise antitrust litigation risk Two major MLSs rejected Compass's listing-rule demands, raising antitrust litigation risk. Its Zillow antitrust defense of private listings also remains unresolved.

    This highlights a significant regulatory and legal overhang that could impact operations and sentiment.

September 2026
▼3▲2

Compass beats on sales but faces weak housing and MLS fights

  • Q2 beat and strong guidance Compass reported Q2 revenue of $4.31 billion, beating estimates, with adjusted EBITDA of $363 million also ahead. It guided Q3 revenue and EBITDA above analyst expectations, helped by high-value luxury deals. That supports the stock because it shows the core business is growing faster than the market.

    It is the clearest new positive force on COMP's price this period.

  • Mortgage rates above 7% cool demand Compass's own economist said mortgage rates above 7% have measurably weakened housing demand, pushing transaction volume below earlier levels. Higher rates make monthly payments costlier, so fewer people buy homes. For a brokerage, fewer transactions mean less commission revenue, which weighs on COMP's price.

    It explains the main demand headwind behind the stock.

  • Price cuts and split housing market Compass's CEO said 42% of US homes saw price cuts in September, the most in nearly a decade, with transactions down 2% month-over-month and 1% year-over-year. Lower-priced sales are falling hardest while luxury holds up. Weak overall activity pressures brokerage revenue and COMP's stock.

    It gives concrete evidence of the weak demand hitting Compass's business.

  • MLS fights over listing rules Two major MLSs rejected Compass's demands to stop enforcing office-exclusive listing rules, and one is building a legal defense fund. The dispute could trigger antitrust lawsuits and costly litigation. Uncertainty over rules and legal costs can weigh on COMP's stock even if the company argues it is fighting for sellers.

    It is a new regulatory and legal risk specific to Compass.

  • Buying up Dallas brokerages Compass merged with Paragon Realtors, adding 85 agents and expanding its Dallas-Fort Worth footprint. It follows other Dallas acquisitions that brought 400 agents in a year. Adding agents grows commission revenue and market share, a positive for the stock, though integration costs are a risk.

    It shows Compass still growing through acquisitions despite weak housing.

Latest
▼3▲2

Compass beats on sales but faces weak housing and MLS fights

  • Q2 beat and strong guidance Compass reported Q2 revenue of $4.31 billion, beating estimates, with adjusted EBITDA of $363 million also ahead. It guided Q3 revenue and EBITDA above analyst expectations, helped by high-value luxury deals. That supports the stock because it shows the core business is growing faster than the market.

    It is the clearest new positive force on COMP's price this period.

  • Mortgage rates above 7% cool demand Compass's own economist said mortgage rates above 7% have measurably weakened housing demand, pushing transaction volume below earlier levels. Higher rates make monthly payments costlier, so fewer people buy homes. For a brokerage, fewer transactions mean less commission revenue, which weighs on COMP's price.

    It explains the main demand headwind behind the stock.

  • Price cuts and split housing market Compass's CEO said 42% of US homes saw price cuts in September, the most in nearly a decade, with transactions down 2% month-over-month and 1% year-over-year. Lower-priced sales are falling hardest while luxury holds up. Weak overall activity pressures brokerage revenue and COMP's stock.

    It gives concrete evidence of the weak demand hitting Compass's business.

  • MLS fights over listing rules Two major MLSs rejected Compass's demands to stop enforcing office-exclusive listing rules, and one is building a legal defense fund. The dispute could trigger antitrust lawsuits and costly litigation. Uncertainty over rules and legal costs can weigh on COMP's stock even if the company argues it is fighting for sellers.

    It is a new regulatory and legal risk specific to Compass.

  • Buying up Dallas brokerages Compass merged with Paragon Realtors, adding 85 agents and expanding its Dallas-Fort Worth footprint. It follows other Dallas acquisitions that brought 400 agents in a year. Adding agents grows commission revenue and market share, a positive for the stock, though integration costs are a risk.

    It shows Compass still growing through acquisitions despite weak housing.

July 2026
▲3▼1

Compass posts record merger-driven results, raises targets despite rate headwind

  • Record Q2 results and raised synergy targets Compass reported record Q2 2026 revenue of $4.31 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $363 million, beating its own guidance, with $92 million net income and $694 million cash. It actioned its full $300 million Year 1 cost-savings target five months early and raised it to $330 million, showing the Anywhere merger is delivering faster than promised.

    This is the core new event showing the merger is paying off and profits are rising, which supports the stock.

  • Strong Q3 guidance and positive free cash flow Compass guided Q3 revenue to $3.85–$4.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $275–$305 million, and expects positive free cash flow. Q2 free cash flow was $180 million and cash rose $210 million. This tells investors the business can fund itself and keep growing, which is good for the stock.

    Forward guidance is new information that shapes expectations for future profits and cash generation.

  • Compass CEO defends private listings in Zillow antitrust case In the Zillow antitrust hearing, Compass CEO Robert Reffkin defended private exclusives as a marketing strategy that gets higher sale prices and faster contracts. If the court sides with Compass, it protects a key competitive tool; a ruling is still pending, so the outcome remains uncertain.

    The antitrust case is a live legal risk that could affect Compass's listing practices and competitive position.

  • Hawkish Fed signals possible rate hike, pressuring housing New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said a rate hike later this year is more likely than not, pushing bond yields up and homebuilder stocks down. Higher mortgage rates make buying a home more expensive, which can cool housing demand and weigh on Compass's transaction volume.

    Rate policy directly affects housing demand, a key driver of Compass's brokerage revenue.

▲3▼1

Compass posts record merger-driven results, raises targets despite rate headwind

  • Record Q2 results and raised synergy targets Compass reported record Q2 2026 revenue of $4.31 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $363 million, beating its own guidance, with $92 million net income and $694 million cash. It actioned its full $300 million Year 1 cost-savings target five months early and raised it to $330 million, showing the Anywhere merger is delivering faster than promised.

    This is the core new event showing the merger is paying off and profits are rising, which supports the stock.

  • Strong Q3 guidance and positive free cash flow Compass guided Q3 revenue to $3.85–$4.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $275–$305 million, and expects positive free cash flow. Q2 free cash flow was $180 million and cash rose $210 million. This tells investors the business can fund itself and keep growing, which is good for the stock.

    Forward guidance is new information that shapes expectations for future profits and cash generation.

  • Compass CEO defends private listings in Zillow antitrust case In the Zillow antitrust hearing, Compass CEO Robert Reffkin defended private exclusives as a marketing strategy that gets higher sale prices and faster contracts. If the court sides with Compass, it protects a key competitive tool; a ruling is still pending, so the outcome remains uncertain.

    The antitrust case is a live legal risk that could affect Compass's listing practices and competitive position.

  • Hawkish Fed signals possible rate hike, pressuring housing New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said a rate hike later this year is more likely than not, pushing bond yields up and homebuilder stocks down. Higher mortgage rates make buying a home more expensive, which can cool housing demand and weigh on Compass's transaction volume.

    Rate policy directly affects housing demand, a key driver of Compass's brokerage revenue.

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)

Q3 2026
▼2

FICO's mortgage monopoly ends as VantageScore wins approval

  • FHFA ends FICO's mortgage-scoring monopoly The FHFA approved VantageScore 4.0, breaking FICO's long-held monopoly on mortgage credit scores. Rocket Mortgage will default to VantageScore in Q4, a concrete loss of market share.

    This is the most significant new competitive threat, directly ending FICO's monopoly and causing tangible share loss.

  • Potential bi-merge requirement could cut FICO demand A proposed bi-merge requirement would let lenders use just two credit reports instead of three, potentially reducing demand for FICO scores. This regulatory change adds further pressure on FICO's core business.

    This new regulatory risk could structurally reduce FICO's revenue per mortgage.

  • Record revenue but miss and delayed licensing program Q3 revenue hit a record $674M, up 26%, with profit up 41% and raised guidance. However, revenue missed estimates and the Direct Licensing Program was delayed, pressuring shares.

    This captures the mixed financial performance: strong growth but missed expectations and a delayed key initiative.

  • FICO responds with free 10T and AI restructuring FICO launched its Direct License Program and offered free FICO Score 10T to FHA lenders to defend its turf. It also cut 15% of staff in an AI restructuring, signaling ongoing pressure.

    These are new strategic responses to competitive threats, showing both defense and cost-cutting.

September 2026
▼3

FICO's mortgage dominance erodes as rivals gain ground

  • FHFA ends FICO monopoly, approves VantageScore 4.0 The FHFA approved VantageScore 4.0 for Fannie and Freddie loans, ending FICO's monopoly. A unified pricing grid lets lenders bypass FICO entirely, threatening its pricing power and market share.

    This is a major regulatory change that directly undermines FICO's core mortgage business.

  • Rocket Mortgage to default to VantageScore in Q4 Rocket Mortgage, the largest U.S. lender, will default to VantageScore in Q4. This concrete share loss shows FICO's biggest customer is moving away, reducing future revenue.

    It provides tangible evidence of market share loss to a competitor.

  • Potential bi-merge requirement could cut FICO demand A potential bi-merge requirement—using only two credit bureaus—could further reduce demand for FICO-based tri-merge reports. This regulatory shift would lower FICO's revenue per mortgage.

    It highlights another regulatory threat that could reduce FICO's pricing and volume.

  • FICO launches Direct License Program and offers free 10T to FHA lenders FICO launched a Mortgage Direct License Program and offered its 10T score free to FHA lenders starting 2027 to boost adoption. However, it also cut 15% of its workforce in an AI-focused restructuring, signaling ongoing pressure.

    These are new strategic moves by FICO to counter threats, but the workforce cut shows challenges remain.

Latest
▼2

FICO's mortgage monopoly erodes as VantageScore gains and FICO cuts jobs

  • Rocket Mortgage becomes first major lender to default to VantageScore Rocket Mortgage, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, will default to VantageScore 4.0 for eligible loans starting in Q4. This is a concrete loss of FICO's dominant position, as a top lender shifts volume away, pressuring FICO's revenue and pricing.

    It shows real competitive adoption, not just regulatory threat, making the risk tangible for FICO's business.

  • FHFA may require only two credit bureaus, reducing FICO score demand Bloomberg reported the FHFA plans to require lenders to use only two of the three major credit bureaus for mortgages sold to Fannie and Freddie. This could cut demand for traditional tri-merge reports and further weaken FICO's position, as it may favor VantageScore.

    This is a new regulatory threat that could structurally reduce the number of FICO scores pulled per mortgage.

  • FICO offers free 10T score to FHA lenders and cuts 15% of workforce FICO will offer its newest 10T score free to FHA lenders from 2027, aiming to boost adoption and show its model is more predictive. Separately, FICO announced a 15% workforce cut in an AI-focused restructuring. The free offer may help retain share, but the job cuts signal pressure.

    These are FICO's own strategic responses to the competitive threat, showing both defense and cost-cutting.

▼3▲1

FHFA Opens Mortgage Scoring to VantageScore, Threatening FICO's Monopoly

  • FHFA ends FICO's mortgage scoring exclusivity The Federal Housing Finance Agency approved VantageScore 4.0 for all Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, ending FICO's long-held monopoly in mortgage credit scoring. This introduces direct competition, threatening FICO's market share and pricing power. The stock fell sharply on the news.

    This is the core new event that directly threatens FICO's mortgage scoring business and triggered the stock decline.

  • Unified pricing grid lets VantageScore bypass FICO FHFA will consolidate Fannie and Freddie pricing into one grid that includes VantageScore, allowing lenders to use VantageScore for loan-level pricing and approval without FICO. This removes FICO's fee leverage and could accelerate share loss.

    This structural change intensifies competition and directly undermines FICO's ability to charge premium fees.

  • Potential bi-merge requirement adds pressure FHFA may require lenders to use only two credit bureaus instead of three for mortgages sold to Fannie and Freddie. This could reduce demand for traditional tri-merge reports and further weaken FICO's position, as it may favor VantageScore.

    This is a new regulatory threat that compounds the competitive pressure on FICO's mortgage scoring business.

  • FICO launches direct license program; regulator not targeting FICO FICO launched a Mortgage Direct License Program and FHFA Director Pulte signaled he is not purposefully targeting the company. This provided a slight reprieve, but the overall competitive and regulatory threats remain dominant.

    This is a new positive development that offers some counterbalance to the negative news, though it does not reverse the competitive threat.

July 2026
▲2▼2

FICO's mortgage moat deepens, but a delayed licensing plan and a rival score spook investors

  • FICO Score 10T embedded in Optimal Blue FICO's new mortgage score is now built into Optimal Blue, the platform used by most big U.S. mortgage lenders. That makes FICO harder to replace and should keep demand strong, supporting the stock price over time.

    This is a new event that strengthens FICO's competitive position and future revenue.

  • Record Q3 profit and raised guidance FICO reported record quarterly revenue of $674 million, up 26%, and profit jumped 41% per share. It raised its full-year outlook, citing a better mortgage market. Strong results and higher guidance push the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly moves the stock.

  • Revenue miss and delayed Direct Licensing Program Despite record profit, revenue fell short of analyst estimates, and FICO delayed its Direct Licensing Program. That delay and the miss disappointed investors, sending shares down sharply. The market worries about future growth timing.

    This is the main new negative event that caused the stock to drop.

  • FHFA rule opens mortgage scoring to a lower-cost rival A new FHFA rule allows a cheaper competitor into mortgage scoring, threatening FICO's pricing power in its biggest market. This regulatory pressure is a real counterweight, keeping a lid on the stock even as profits grow.

    This is a new regulatory threat that could erode FICO's long-term cash flow.

▲2▼2

FICO's mortgage moat deepens, but a delayed licensing plan and a rival score spook investors

  • FICO Score 10T embedded in Optimal Blue FICO's new mortgage score is now built into Optimal Blue, the platform used by most big U.S. mortgage lenders. That makes FICO harder to replace and should keep demand strong, supporting the stock price over time.

    This is a new event that strengthens FICO's competitive position and future revenue.

  • Record Q3 profit and raised guidance FICO reported record quarterly revenue of $674 million, up 26%, and profit jumped 41% per share. It raised its full-year outlook, citing a better mortgage market. Strong results and higher guidance push the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly moves the stock.

  • Revenue miss and delayed Direct Licensing Program Despite record profit, revenue fell short of analyst estimates, and FICO delayed its Direct Licensing Program. That delay and the miss disappointed investors, sending shares down sharply. The market worries about future growth timing.

    This is the main new negative event that caused the stock to drop.

  • FHFA rule opens mortgage scoring to a lower-cost rival A new FHFA rule allows a cheaper competitor into mortgage scoring, threatening FICO's pricing power in its biggest market. This regulatory pressure is a real counterweight, keeping a lid on the stock even as profits grow.

    This is a new regulatory threat that could erode FICO's long-term cash flow.