← Corn Futures overview

Corn Futures vs Chicago SRW Wheat Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Corn Futures (CORN.COMM)

Q3 2026
▼2▲1

Corn swings on Black Sea attacks, record US stocks, China import collapse

  • Black Sea attacks and hot weather tighten supply Attacks in the Black Sea region and hot weather in the US Midwest hurt corn supplies, pushing December corn to a three-year high near $5.37. This was a major force lifting prices during the quarter.

    This explains a key upward driver of corn prices in Q3.

  • Record US stocks and rapid harvest pressure prices Record US corn stocks of 2.095 billion bushels and a fast harvest weighed on prices, reversing earlier gains. Ample supply made buyers less willing to pay high prices, pulling futures down to about $4.97.

    This highlights a major downward force on corn prices in Q3.

  • Collapse in Chinese imports reduces demand Chinese corn imports fell by 80.6%, a huge drop that removed a key source of demand. This weak demand contributed to the price decline from the highs, as fewer US exports were needed.

    This shows a significant demand-side factor that pressured prices.

  • Putin peace talks and biofuel boost create choppy trade Putin's peace-talk signals threatened more Black Sea exports, while El Niño, strong USDA export estimates, and an oil-driven biofuel boost supported prices. Russia's zero export duty and Thai buying added counterweights, keeping trade choppy.

    This captures the conflicting forces that made Q3 trade volatile.

August 2026
▲2▼1

Corn hits 3-year high on tight supply, then reverses on record stocks

  • USDA cuts and crop tour confirm smaller crop The USDA cut yield and ending-stocks estimates, crop ratings fell, and a Midwest tour found yields below forecasts, pushing December corn to a three-year high near $5.37.

    This supply shock was the main force lifting corn to a multi-year high.

  • Black Sea attacks disrupt grain exports Black Sea attacks disrupted grain exports, adding to supply worries and helping drive corn to a three-year high. Global food prices hit three-year highs and banks warned of a grain crisis.

    Geopolitical supply disruption was a key bullish driver during the rally.

  • Record US stocks and fast harvest reverse rally US corn stocks hit a seven-year high of 2.095 billion bushels, clear weather sped harvesting, and China's imports collapsed 80.6%, sending futures down about 4% to roughly $4.97.

    This bearish shift erased earlier gains and defined the second half of the period.

  • Russia's zero export duty and Thai buying offset Russia's zero export duty was a mild counterweight to the rally, while Thai buying partly offset the later slump. Ceasefire hopes added supply risk.

    These smaller factors balanced the main drivers and show the full picture.

Latest
▼3

Record US Corn Stockpile and Fast Harvest Push Prices Down

  • US corn stockpile hits 7-year high The government reported US corn inventories on September 1 at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% from a year ago and far above what analysts expected. That is a lot of corn already in storage, so buyers have little reason to bid prices up. Corn futures fell 4% on the news.

    This is the single biggest new force pushing corn prices down this period.

  • Clear weather speeds US harvest, adding supply Forecasts for dry, clear weather across the Midwest mean farmers can bring in this year's corn crop quickly. More freshly harvested corn flowing to market adds to the already-heavy supply and keeps pressure on prices. December corn slipped to about $4.97 a bushel.

    New harvest progress is a fresh supply-side weight on prices.

  • China's corn imports collapse 80.6% China, one of the world's biggest corn buyers, cut its corn imports by 80.6% as its own grain output hit a record. Less buying from China means weaker global demand for corn, which pulls futures prices lower over time.

    A major demand-side shift that reduces global corn buying.

  • Black Sea peace hopes vs. Thai buying Talk of a limited Russia-Ukraine ceasefire raised the chance of Black Sea grain exports resuming, which would add supply and weigh on prices. But Thai buyers are importing US corn because domestic output is short, adding demand. The two forces pull corn in opposite directions.

    Shows the real counterweight keeping corn from falling further.

September 2026
▲2▼1

Corn swings on Black Sea peace hopes, USDA data, and biofuel demand

  • Russia-Ukraine peace talks could restore Black Sea grain exports Putin signaled openness to peace talks, raising the chance that Black Sea grain exports resume. More corn supply would push prices down. Corn fell 0.74% on the news. This is a real counterweight to the earlier supply fears.

    Directly answers why corn moved: peace hopes could ease the supply crunch that had lifted prices.

  • El Niño threatens ASEAN grain supplies, lifting corn demand OCBC warns El Niño will drive up corn and wheat prices, hitting ASEAN importers. Higher world prices mean stronger demand for corn, supporting futures. This adds a new demand-side reason for corn to stay elevated.

    Shows a new demand driver from weather that supports corn prices.

  • USDA report: higher corn exports but ample supply USDA raised US corn export estimates, which supports prices, but also pointed to higher soybean output and a slight improvement in corn crop ratings, signaling ample supply. Corn fell after the report. The tug-of-war between strong demand and ample supply keeps prices choppy.

    Captures the key USDA data that moved corn both ways this period.

  • Crude oil surge boosts biofuel demand for corn Crude oil jumped on tanker attacks, making biofuels more competitive. Corn is used to make ethanol, so higher oil prices increase demand for corn. This helped corn gain 0.47% on Sept 15. It's a new supportive force.

    Explains a new positive driver: oil prices lifting corn via biofuel demand.

▲2▼1

Corn swings on Black Sea peace hopes, USDA data, and biofuel demand

  • Russia-Ukraine peace talks could restore Black Sea grain exports Putin signaled openness to peace talks, raising the chance that Black Sea grain exports resume. More corn supply would push prices down. Corn fell 0.74% on the news. This is a real counterweight to the earlier supply fears.

    Directly answers why corn moved: peace hopes could ease the supply crunch that had lifted prices.

  • El Niño threatens ASEAN grain supplies, lifting corn demand OCBC warns El Niño will drive up corn and wheat prices, hitting ASEAN importers. Higher world prices mean stronger demand for corn, supporting futures. This adds a new demand-side reason for corn to stay elevated.

    Shows a new demand driver from weather that supports corn prices.

  • USDA report: higher corn exports but ample supply USDA raised US corn export estimates, which supports prices, but also pointed to higher soybean output and a slight improvement in corn crop ratings, signaling ample supply. Corn fell after the report. The tug-of-war between strong demand and ample supply keeps prices choppy.

    Captures the key USDA data that moved corn both ways this period.

  • Crude oil surge boosts biofuel demand for corn Crude oil jumped on tanker attacks, making biofuels more competitive. Corn is used to make ethanol, so higher oil prices increase demand for corn. This helped corn gain 0.47% on Sept 15. It's a new supportive force.

    Explains a new positive driver: oil prices lifting corn via biofuel demand.

▲3

Corn hits 3-year high as US crop shrinks and Black Sea exports stall

  • US corn crop smaller than expected A Midwest crop tour found Illinois and other key states' corn yields below USDA forecasts, with hot weather hurting the crop. Less corn grown means tighter supply, pushing December corn to a three-year high near $5.37 a bushel.

    This is the main new force lifting corn prices this period.

  • Black Sea grain exports nearly halted Russia and Ukraine escalated attacks on ports and ships, stopping most grain loading from the Black Sea, which handles over 70% of Russia's exports. With Ukrainian corn and Russian wheat stuck, buyers turn to other sources, lifting corn prices.

    Geopolitical disruption to a major export route is a key new driver of corn's rise.

  • Wall Street warns of grain crisis Major banks issued grain crisis warnings, and corn and wheat hit three-year highs. A Chinese corn-seed stock, Wanxiang Doneed, hit five straight daily limit-ups. This shows broad market fear of tight grain supplies, which keeps corn prices elevated.

    It shows the wider market reaction and reinforces the supply-driven rally.

  • Russia suspends grain export duties Russia cut its grain export duty to 0% until end-2026 to help its exporters reroute after Black Sea disruptions. This could add some Russian corn to global markets, a mild counterweight, but limited Baltic port capacity means it won't fully offset lost Black Sea supply.

    It is the main counterweight to the rally, but its impact is limited by logistics.

▲4

USDA cuts corn yield and stocks, sending prices to two-week high

  • USDA cuts yield and ending stocks The August USDA report cut the corn yield estimate and lowered ending stocks to 1.653 billion bushels, tightening the supply picture. December corn jumped 20 cents to $4.81, its highest in two weeks, as traders priced in less corn available than expected.

    This is the single biggest new supply shock of the period and directly explains the price rally.

  • US crop condition ratings drop The USDA cut its good-to-excellent corn rating by 2 points to 61%, signaling the crop is not as healthy as hoped. Lower ratings raise fears of a smaller harvest, which supports higher corn prices.

    It is a fresh supply signal that adds to the tightening narrative and helps explain the rally.

  • Black Sea attacks disrupt grain exports Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's main wheat export port forced terminals to suspend operations, and fighting in the region continues to threaten grain shipments. Any disruption to Black Sea supply makes corn relatively more valuable and lifts prices.

    It is a new geopolitical supply risk that directly supports corn prices alongside the USDA cuts.

  • Global food prices hit three-year high on drought The UN food price index rose to its highest since early 2023, driven by cereals and concerns about drought in US growing areas and a severe European grain shortfall. Tight global grain supplies keep upward pressure on corn prices.

    It shows the broader global supply backdrop that reinforces the bullish case for corn.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Corn swings on USDA cuts, Black Sea attacks, weather

  • June WASDE and weak demand The June WASDE raised US and world corn stockpiles, while weak export sales and lower ethanol output signaled softer demand. Long liquidation pushed prices below $4.

    Explains the early bearish pressure that drove prices down.

  • July USDA cut and IGC trim The July USDA report cut US and world stocks more than expected, and the IGC trimmed its global crop forecast. Strong export demand and higher corn oil prices also aided processor margins.

    Highlights the bullish supply revisions that supported prices.

  • Black Sea attacks and hot US weather In late July, Black Sea attacks and hot US weather lifted corn toward $4.85, with surging crude oil boosting ethanol demand.

    Identifies geopolitical and weather events that pushed prices higher.

  • Favorable weather and Thai imports Offsetting gains, favorable Midwest weather forecasts and Thailand's planned 1-million-tonne US corn import pressured prices back to $4.72.

    Shows the counterweight that pulled prices down from highs.

▲2▼1

Corn swings on weather, oil, and Black Sea risk

  • Black Sea attacks and hot US weather lift corn Attacks on Ukrainian grain ports pushed wheat to a two-year high, and hot, dry weather threatened US corn areas. Both raised fears of tighter global grain supplies, helping corn futures climb toward $4.85 a bushel.

    Explains the main supply-side forces pushing corn up during the period.

  • Crude oil surge boosts biofuel demand for corn Rising crude oil prices made corn-based ethanol more competitive as a fuel additive, supporting demand for corn. This helped corn futures hold near recent highs even as wheat and soybeans pulled back.

    Shows how energy markets feed through to corn demand and prices.

  • Favorable US weather and Thai imports pressure corn Forecasts for good Midwest growing weather raised expectations of a larger US crop, sending corn down 1.8% to $4.72. Separately, Thailand's plan to import 1 million tonnes of US corn added to global supply, weighing on prices.

    Captures the main bearish supply developments that reversed earlier gains.

▲2▼2

USDA cuts corn stocks, but weak exports and bearish start cap gains

  • June WASDE and long liquidation push corn below $4 The June USDA report raised US and world corn stockpiles, and traders dumped long positions before the acreage report. Managed money added to its bet on lower prices. Corn fell below $4 as the market absorbed a well-supplied picture.

    Explains the bearish starting point for the period and why corn was under pressure before later reports.

  • Tighter US stocks and smaller world crop lift prices The USDA's July report cut old and new US corn stocks more than expected, and world stocks were trimmed. The International Grains Council also cut its world crop forecast, while France's harvest shrank from heat. Less supply supports higher corn prices.

    This is the main bullish force in the period, showing supply tightening after the June report.

  • Weak export sales and lower ethanol output weigh on demand US old-crop corn export sales fell to a marketing-year low, and ethanol production dropped. Both point to softer demand for corn, which pulls prices down. The export slowdown was the latest drag after the July rally.

    Shows the demand side is not keeping up with the tighter supply story, a real counterweight to higher prices.

  • Strong export demand and corn oil prices support processor margins Alto Ingredients reported a big profit swing, helped by strong export demand and higher corn oil prices. Better margins for ethanol makers can mean more corn used, which is a mild positive for corn demand and prices.

    Gives a demand-side positive that partly offsets the weak export sales headline.

Chicago SRW Wheat Futures (WHEAT.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

Wheat hits multi-year highs on small crop, Black Sea strikes

  • Smallest U.S. wheat crop since 1970 The U.S. harvested only 1.536 billion bushels, the smallest since 1970, sharply reducing available supply and pushing Chicago wheat futures to multi-year highs.

    This supply shock was a primary driver of the price surge.

  • Black Sea export disruptions Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian terminals disrupted Black Sea exports, and the September WASDE cut Russian and Ukrainian export forecasts by 4 million tons combined, tightening global supply.

    Geopolitical supply disruptions directly supported higher wheat prices.

  • Tight global stocks and dry weather Global wheat stocks were tight at 272.84 million metric tons, and dry weather in the Northern Plains stressed crops, while China buying hopes and El Niño-driven Asian demand added support.

    These factors reinforced supply concerns and demand optimism.

  • Bearish factors capped gains Weak U.S. export sales, ample global supplies, France's higher ending stocks, India's return as an exporter, profit-taking, and ceasefire hopes—including Putin's September 4 peace signal—repeatedly capped gains.

    These counterweights limited the upside and prevented even higher prices.

August 2026
▲2▼1

Black Sea War and Shrinking Crops Push Wheat to Multi-Year Highs

  • Black Sea strikes cut exports Ukrainian and Russian export cuts, including a strike on the Novorossiysk terminal, threatened supply from the world's top wheat exporter and drove prices to multi-year highs.

    This was the main force pushing wheat prices up during the period.

  • Smaller US crop estimate The USDA projected an even smaller U.S. wheat crop, tightening already thin domestic supplies and adding to the rally.

    A key supply-side factor that supported higher prices.

  • Weak exports and ample global stocks Weak U.S. export sales, ample global stocks, India's return as an exporter, profit-taking, and ceasefire hopes that could restart Black Sea shipping all capped gains.

    These were the main counterweights that limited further price increases.

  • US-China tariff cut, no big sales A U.S.-China summit cut wheat tariffs but brought no major purchases, offering little support; later, tighter world supply, strong demand, Japan's price increase, and bad weather kept prices elevated.

    Shows a policy event with limited impact and later supportive factors.

Latest
▲1▼1

Wheat swings on Black Sea war and China trade, ending higher

  • Ceasefire hopes pull wheat down Wheat fell to two- and four-week lows when President Trump said Ukraine and Russia agreed to stop striking each other's energy sites, and Secretary of State Rubio said both sides showed interest in a limited ceasefire covering grain. Any deal could restart Black Sea shipping, adding supply and lowering WHEAT.COMM.

    Peace hopes are the main counterweight dragging wheat lower.

  • China summit brings wheat tariff cut but no big buying The US-China summit ended with no new Chinese farm purchases, and China left soybeans off its tariff-cut list, dragging the whole grain market down. But wheat was included in the tariff cuts, which supports demand. Overall, the summit gave little fresh support to WHEAT.COMM.

    China trade news is a major demand factor cutting both ways for wheat.

  • Tighter world wheat supply and strong demand Japan raised the price it charges millers for imported wheat by 12%, the second straight increase, showing higher world prices and freight costs. Extreme weather has hurt wheat crops from the US to Europe, and El Niño threatens more output, all pointing to tighter supply and higher WHEAT.COMM.

    Confirms global supply is tight and demand strong, supporting higher prices.

September 2026
▲3▼1

Black Sea War Keeps Wheat Near 3-Year Highs; Peace Hopes Fade

  • Black Sea attacks keep wheat near 3-year highs Ukrainian attacks on Russian Black Sea and Azov ports have cut exports from a region supplying over a quarter of world wheat. Russia's August exports fell by more than half, and September may be the lowest since 2010. Less wheat available pushes WHEAT.COMM prices up.

    This is the core supply disruption driving the period's elevated prices.

  • Putin peace talks briefly knocked wheat down On September 4, Putin signaled openness to talks with Ukraine, raising hopes Black Sea exports could normalize. Wheat fell 2.68% that day. But by mid-September, hopes faded as attacks continued, and prices recovered. This shows how quickly peace hopes can pull WHEAT.COMM lower.

    It is the main counterweight that briefly pushed prices down during the period.

  • USDA cuts Russian and Ukrainian wheat export forecasts The September WASDE report lowered Russia's wheat export forecast by 3 million tons and Ukraine's by 1 million tons, confirming that conflict is straining supply chains. Even though the report also raised soybean output and initially dragged grains lower, the wheat-specific cuts support higher WHEAT.COMM prices.

    It is a fresh official confirmation of tighter wheat supply from the Black Sea.

  • China buying hopes and El Niño demand support wheat Markets expect China to buy more US farm goods ahead of Trump-Xi talks, lifting wheat. Separately, OCBC warned El Niño will raise food inflation in Asia, with wheat a key import. Both point to stronger demand, helping push WHEAT.COMM up.

    It highlights new demand-side forces that could keep wheat supported.

▲3▼1

Black Sea War Keeps Wheat Near 3-Year Highs; Peace Hopes Fade

  • Black Sea attacks keep wheat near 3-year highs Ukrainian attacks on Russian Black Sea and Azov ports have cut exports from a region supplying over a quarter of world wheat. Russia's August exports fell by more than half, and September may be the lowest since 2010. Less wheat available pushes WHEAT.COMM prices up.

    This is the core supply disruption driving the period's elevated prices.

  • Putin peace talks briefly knocked wheat down On September 4, Putin signaled openness to talks with Ukraine, raising hopes Black Sea exports could normalize. Wheat fell 2.68% that day. But by mid-September, hopes faded as attacks continued, and prices recovered. This shows how quickly peace hopes can pull WHEAT.COMM lower.

    It is the main counterweight that briefly pushed prices down during the period.

  • USDA cuts Russian and Ukrainian wheat export forecasts The September WASDE report lowered Russia's wheat export forecast by 3 million tons and Ukraine's by 1 million tons, confirming that conflict is straining supply chains. Even though the report also raised soybean output and initially dragged grains lower, the wheat-specific cuts support higher WHEAT.COMM prices.

    It is a fresh official confirmation of tighter wheat supply from the Black Sea.

  • China buying hopes and El Niño demand support wheat Markets expect China to buy more US farm goods ahead of Trump-Xi talks, lifting wheat. Separately, OCBC warned El Niño will raise food inflation in Asia, with wheat a key import. Both point to stronger demand, helping push WHEAT.COMM up.

    It highlights new demand-side forces that could keep wheat supported.

▲2▼2

Black Sea Attacks and India's Return Keep Wheat Volatile

  • Black Sea attacks disrupt supply Attacks on Black Sea ports and ships have disrupted wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine, which together supply over a quarter of the world's wheat. This reduces global supply and pushes WHEAT.COMM prices higher.

    This is the main force driving wheat prices up, as it directly cuts a huge source of global supply.

  • India lifts wheat export ban India ended its four-year ban on wheat exports after a record harvest. This adds a new source of supply to the global market, which can ease tightness and put downward pressure on WHEAT.COMM prices.

    It is a new counterweight that could limit the rally by increasing global supply.

  • Russia plans to escalate attacks on Kyiv Reports that Russia may increase missile strikes on Kyiv raised fears of even worse Black Sea export disruptions. Wheat jumped to its daily limit, showing how sensitive prices are to war escalation.

    This is the latest escalation that caused a sharp price jump, confirming the market's focus on war risk.

  • Profit-taking and diplomatic signals After prices hit multi-year highs, some traders sold to lock in profits. Ukraine's president also signaled a possible diplomatic path, which briefly eased supply worries and capped gains.

    It shows a real counterweight that can slow or reverse price increases, giving a balanced view.

▲3▼1

Black Sea Attacks and Shrinking Crops Keep Wheat Prices High

  • Ukraine slashes grain export target after Odesa attacks Ukraine cut its grain export target by up to 12% after heavy Russian attacks on Odesa, the route handling over 90% of its farm exports. Less Ukrainian wheat reaching world buyers tightens supply and pushes WHEAT.COMM prices up.

    This is a new, concrete supply cut that directly reduces global wheat availability.

  • Novorossiysk port strike halts Russian wheat shipments Ukrainian drone strikes stopped operations at Russia's Novorossiysk port, and Russia hit a vessel in Odesa. Russia is the world's top wheat exporter, so any halt to its shipments removes a huge source of supply and lifts WHEAT.COMM prices.

    A direct disruption to the world's largest wheat exporter is a major new bullish force.

  • USDA cuts U.S. wheat crop and ending stocks again The USDA lowered its 2026 U.S. wheat crop estimate to 1.531 billion bushels and cut ending stocks to 717 million bushels. A smaller U.S. crop means less wheat available, which supports higher WHEAT.COMM prices.

    This is a fresh, official reduction in U.S. supply that reinforces the upward price trend.

  • Weak export sales and ample global stocks limit gains U.S. weekly wheat export sales were 255,931 metric tons, down 64.6% from a year ago, and world ending stocks were raised slightly to 273.25 million tons. Weak demand and adequate global reserves act as a brake on the rally.

    This is the main counterweight that keeps the rally from running even higher.

July 2026
▲3▼1

Wheat hits 2-year high on crop and Black Sea shocks

  • Smallest US wheat crop since 1970 The USDA projected the smallest U.S. wheat crop since 1970 at 1.536 billion bushels, sharply tightening domestic supplies and fueling a rally to two-year highs.

    This supply shock was a primary bullish driver of wheat prices.

  • Black Sea export disruptions Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted Black Sea exports, including Russia's Taman terminal, threatening supply from the world's top wheat exporter and keeping prices elevated.

    Geopolitical supply risks were the dominant bullish force during the period.

  • Tight global stocks and dry weather Global wheat stocks tightened to 272.84 million metric tons, while dry Northern Plains weather and a lower spring wheat yield estimate of 46 bushels per acre added further support.

    These factors reinforced the bullish supply narrative and contributed to price gains.

  • Bearish counterweights cap gains U.S. export sales hit marketing-year lows, France raised its ending stocks forecast, and ample global supplies plus profit-taking after the rally limited further upside.

    These bearish factors acted as a counterweight, preventing even larger price increases.

▲2▼1

Black Sea Attacks and Dry Weather Keep Wheat Prices Elevated

  • Black Sea attacks disrupt exports Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian ports and vessels, including the Taman terminal, have disrupted Black Sea grain shipments. Since Russia is the world's top wheat exporter, these disruptions reduce global supply and push wheat prices higher.

    This is the main new geopolitical driver this period, directly limiting supply and supporting prices.

  • Dry weather and lower crop estimates Dry weather in the Northern Plains and a lower spring wheat yield estimate (46 bushels per acre) have raised concerns about a smaller U.S. crop. Reduced supply expectations support higher wheat prices.

    New weather and crop data this period directly affect supply expectations and prices.

  • Profit-taking and ample global supplies After prices hit a two-year high, traders sold to lock in profits, and massive global wheat supplies pressured prices. This counterweight limits the rally, though Black Sea tensions still provide support.

    This is a key counterweight that explains why prices pulled back despite bullish news.

▲3▼1

Wheat Jumps on Shrinking U.S. Crop and Black Sea Export Fears

  • U.S. wheat crop smallest since 1970 The USDA now expects the smallest U.S. wheat crop since 1970, cutting its estimate to 1.536 billion bushels. Less wheat available pushes prices up because buyers must compete for a smaller supply.

    This is a major new supply reduction that directly lifts wheat prices.

  • Black Sea export routes disrupted Ukrainian drone strikes have halted shipping through the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait, threatening about a quarter of Russia's wheat exports. Russia is the world's top wheat exporter, so losing that supply drives prices higher.

    This is a new geopolitical supply threat that is a key driver of the recent price surge.

  • Global wheat supplies tighten The USDA cut world wheat stocks to 272.84 million metric tons, and the EU's crop forecaster lowered its output estimate. Smaller global reserves mean less cushion if problems arise, supporting higher prices.

    This reinforces the supply-driven rally with fresh data on global inventories.

  • Weak export sales and rising French stocks U.S. weekly wheat export sales were the lowest this marketing year, and France raised its ending stocks forecast. Weak demand and ample French supply act as a brake on the rally, though Black Sea tensions still dominate.

    This is a new demand-side counterweight that could limit further price gains.