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Deere & vs Soybean Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Deere & Company (DE)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

Deere hits record on earnings beat, buybacks, but regulatory and tariff risks loom

  • Q3 earnings beat and raised guidance Deere beat Q3 earnings with EPS of $5.10, raised full-year guidance, and authorized new buybacks, sending shares to a record above $700 as management called 2026 the bottom of the farm downturn.

    This is the primary new positive event that drove the stock to a record high.

  • Construction and forestry strength Construction and forestry sales rose 18%, offsetting a 6% farm-segment decline, while AI investments and a $10M Reservoir partnership support precision-ag growth.

    This new segment performance and technology investment helped counterbalance weak farm demand.

  • Regulatory and trade headwinds However, risks persist: weak North American farm demand, $110M in tariff refunds flattering results, Canada's 15–50% retaliatory tariffs on equipment, an FTC/USDA antitrust probe (shares fell 5%), and a right-to-repair settlement reducing service revenue control.

    These new negative factors are real counterweights that could pressure future results.

  • Analyst optimism with $800 target Baird's $800 target reflects optimism, but regulatory and trade headwinds remain real counterweights.

    This new analyst target shows positive sentiment but is balanced by ongoing risks.

September 2026
▲2▼2

Deere hits record on earnings, then faces Canada tariffs and a US antitrust probe

  • Record high on strong earnings and raised guidance Deere reported a strong quarter, beat profit and revenue expectations, and raised the low end of its full-year profit forecast by $250 million. Management said the farm equipment downturn may have bottomed, and an analyst upgrade pushed the stock above $700 to a record. This directly lifts DE's price because it signals the worst of the slump is over.

    This is the main new positive force behind DE's move this period.

  • Canada's retaliatory tariffs hit Deere equipment Canada imposed 15% to 50% duties on about $20 billion of US goods, including agricultural equipment, in an escalating trade fight. Deere products are directly affected, which can raise costs and reduce sales in a key market. Tariffs are a real drag on DE's price because they cut into demand and margins.

    A new tariff event that directly pressures DE's sales and costs.

  • FTC and USDA probe farm equipment practices Federal regulators opened a broad inquiry into whether Deere and rivals use market power to squeeze farmers through restrictive dealer contracts and penalties. Deere fell 5% on the news. The probe follows a right-to-repair settlement and could lead to new rules or lawsuits, which weighs on DE's price by adding legal and regulatory risk.

    A new regulatory threat that directly targets Deere and moved the stock down.

  • Analyst upgrade adds to optimism Baird upgraded Deere and set an $800 price target, about 15% above the record level, saying the farm equipment cycle is starting to recover. Upgrades bring in buyers and support the stock. This is a smaller, sentiment-driven push higher, but it reinforces the earnings-driven rally.

    It explains part of the upward move and the recovery narrative around DE.

Latest
▲2▼2

Deere hits record on earnings, then faces Canada tariffs and a US antitrust probe

  • Record high on strong earnings and raised guidance Deere reported a strong quarter, beat profit and revenue expectations, and raised the low end of its full-year profit forecast by $250 million. Management said the farm equipment downturn may have bottomed, and an analyst upgrade pushed the stock above $700 to a record. This directly lifts DE's price because it signals the worst of the slump is over.

    This is the main new positive force behind DE's move this period.

  • Canada's retaliatory tariffs hit Deere equipment Canada imposed 15% to 50% duties on about $20 billion of US goods, including agricultural equipment, in an escalating trade fight. Deere products are directly affected, which can raise costs and reduce sales in a key market. Tariffs are a real drag on DE's price because they cut into demand and margins.

    A new tariff event that directly pressures DE's sales and costs.

  • FTC and USDA probe farm equipment practices Federal regulators opened a broad inquiry into whether Deere and rivals use market power to squeeze farmers through restrictive dealer contracts and penalties. Deere fell 5% on the news. The probe follows a right-to-repair settlement and could lead to new rules or lawsuits, which weighs on DE's price by adding legal and regulatory risk.

    A new regulatory threat that directly targets Deere and moved the stock down.

  • Analyst upgrade adds to optimism Baird upgraded Deere and set an $800 price target, about 15% above the record level, saying the farm equipment cycle is starting to recover. Upgrades bring in buyers and support the stock. This is a smaller, sentiment-driven push higher, but it reinforces the earnings-driven rally.

    It explains part of the upward move and the recovery narrative around DE.

July 2026
▲3▼1

Deere's Profit Beat and Buyback Offset Farm Weakness and Repair Settlement

  • Q2 earnings beat and raised guidance Deere reported Q2 revenue of $12.61 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.10, beating estimates, with operating margin improving to 15.3% from 13%. The company also raised full-year net income guidance. This shows profit growing for the first time in three years, pushing the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly drives the stock higher.

  • New share buyback and AI efficiency investments Deere authorized a new share repurchase program and highlighted AI-enabled operational efficiency. Buybacks reduce the number of shares, which can lift earnings per share. AI investments aim to cut costs and improve margins, supporting the stock price.

    Buybacks and AI investments are new capital actions that support the investment thesis.

  • FTC right-to-repair settlement Deere settled an FTC lawsuit by agreeing to give farmers and independent repair shops the same diagnostic and repair tools as dealers for 10 years, and paying $1 million in legal fees. This reduces Deere's control over repair services, which could pressure future parts and service revenue.

    This is a new regulatory event that could hurt Deere's aftermarket business.

  • $10 million rugged AI partnership Deere partnered with Reservoir in a $10 million, three-year R&D deal to develop rugged AI for high-value crops. This boosts Deere's technology capabilities in precision agriculture, which is a key growth area and supports the stock by showing innovation.

    This new partnership reinforces Deere's tech leadership and future growth prospects.

▲3▼1

Deere's Profit Beat and Buyback Offset Farm Weakness and Repair Settlement

  • Q2 earnings beat and raised guidance Deere reported Q2 revenue of $12.61 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.10, beating estimates, with operating margin improving to 15.3% from 13%. The company also raised full-year net income guidance. This shows profit growing for the first time in three years, pushing the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly drives the stock higher.

  • New share buyback and AI efficiency investments Deere authorized a new share repurchase program and highlighted AI-enabled operational efficiency. Buybacks reduce the number of shares, which can lift earnings per share. AI investments aim to cut costs and improve margins, supporting the stock price.

    Buybacks and AI investments are new capital actions that support the investment thesis.

  • FTC right-to-repair settlement Deere settled an FTC lawsuit by agreeing to give farmers and independent repair shops the same diagnostic and repair tools as dealers for 10 years, and paying $1 million in legal fees. This reduces Deere's control over repair services, which could pressure future parts and service revenue.

    This is a new regulatory event that could hurt Deere's aftermarket business.

  • $10 million rugged AI partnership Deere partnered with Reservoir in a $10 million, three-year R&D deal to develop rugged AI for high-value crops. This boosts Deere's technology capabilities in precision agriculture, which is a key growth area and supports the stock by showing innovation.

    This new partnership reinforces Deere's tech leadership and future growth prospects.

August 2026
▲3

Deere beats Q3, raises outlook as construction offsets weak farm demand

  • Q3 beat and raised full-year profit outlook Deere reported fiscal Q3 EPS of $5.10 versus about $4.70 expected, with sales up 6% to roughly $11 billion, and raised the low end of its full-year net income guidance to $4.75–$5.00 billion. The stock jumped about 7–9% because the results showed profit growing for the first time in three years.

    This is the period's main new event and the clearest reason DE moved.

  • Construction and forestry strength, helped by AI data-center building Deere's construction and forestry sales rose 18% as data-center construction and heavy earthmoving demand stayed strong. This is important because it offsets the weak farm side: the main production and precision agriculture segment still fell 6%, so the company is leaning on construction while farming recovers.

    It explains the mix behind the beat and why investors looked past weak agriculture.

  • Management says 2026 is the bottom of the farm equipment cycle CEO John May said 2026 marks the bottom of the agricultural equipment downturn, pointing to early order trends, better used-equipment inventories, and more customer adoption of advanced technology. That supports the idea that farm demand should improve in 2027, which is why investors are willing to pay up now.

    It gives the forward-looking reason behind the raised guidance and stock move.

  • Farm demand still weak and tariff refunds flattered results The main farm equipment segment still shrank 6%, North American demand was soft, and Deere booked $110 million in tariff refunds that boosted the quarter. Rivals CNH and AGCO showed mixed conditions, so the recovery is not yet visible in industry data — a real counterweight to the upbeat guidance.

    It is the honest counterweight: the beat was partly helped by one-time items and farming remains weak.

▲3

Deere beats Q3, raises outlook as construction offsets weak farm demand

  • Q3 beat and raised full-year profit outlook Deere reported fiscal Q3 EPS of $5.10 versus about $4.70 expected, with sales up 6% to roughly $11 billion, and raised the low end of its full-year net income guidance to $4.75–$5.00 billion. The stock jumped about 7–9% because the results showed profit growing for the first time in three years.

    This is the period's main new event and the clearest reason DE moved.

  • Construction and forestry strength, helped by AI data-center building Deere's construction and forestry sales rose 18% as data-center construction and heavy earthmoving demand stayed strong. This is important because it offsets the weak farm side: the main production and precision agriculture segment still fell 6%, so the company is leaning on construction while farming recovers.

    It explains the mix behind the beat and why investors looked past weak agriculture.

  • Management says 2026 is the bottom of the farm equipment cycle CEO John May said 2026 marks the bottom of the agricultural equipment downturn, pointing to early order trends, better used-equipment inventories, and more customer adoption of advanced technology. That supports the idea that farm demand should improve in 2027, which is why investors are willing to pay up now.

    It gives the forward-looking reason behind the raised guidance and stock move.

  • Farm demand still weak and tariff refunds flattered results The main farm equipment segment still shrank 6%, North American demand was soft, and Deere booked $110 million in tariff refunds that boosted the quarter. Rivals CNH and AGCO showed mixed conditions, so the recovery is not yet visible in industry data — a real counterweight to the upbeat guidance.

    It is the honest counterweight: the beat was partly helped by one-time items and farming remains weak.

Soybean Futures (SOYBEAN.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Soybeans swung on weather, China, and record crop

  • USDA stock cuts and strong demand Early in the quarter, the USDA cut its estimate of soybean stockpiles, and strong exports and biofuel demand pushed prices to a two-year high. Dry weather in the Midwest also raised fears about the crop.

    This explains the initial bullish driver of the quarter.

  • Midwest rain and crude oil plunge Midwest rain improved crop conditions, and a sharp drop in crude oil prices reduced demand for soy-based biofuels. These factors reversed the rally and sent prices lower.

    This shows the bearish turn that reversed early gains.

  • Chinese purchases and Black Sea fears Later, Chinese buying and concerns about Black Sea grain supply pushed prices to three-year highs. Ongoing Chinese demand and biofuel use provided support.

    This highlights the later bullish factors that drove prices up again.

  • Record crop and China tariff A record 4.5-billion-bushel US crop and favorable weather weighed on prices. China kept a 10% tariff on US soybeans, capping gains. Black Sea peace talks also posed downside risk by potentially normalizing grain exports.

    This shows the bearish factors that limited the upside.

August 2026
▼3▲1

Soybeans hit 3-year high on demand, then tariff and crop caps

  • Chinese demand and Black Sea fears lift soybeans China bought about 7 million tonnes of soybeans, and worries about Black Sea supply, drought, and biofuel policy pushed prices to three-year highs. Crude oil surges and record food prices added support.

    This explains the main upward force on soybean prices during the period.

  • Record US crop and good weather cap gains The USDA raised its US production estimate to a record near 4.5 billion bushels, and favorable Midwest weather boosted yields. This ample supply limited how high prices could go.

    This shows the key supply-side factor that prevented further price increases.

  • China keeps 10% tariff on US soybeans After a summit, China decided to keep a 10% tariff on US soybeans, removing a key reason for demand optimism and pressuring prices. This was a major bearish factor.

    This highlights a new policy decision that weighed on soybean prices.

  • Black Sea peace talks pose downside risk Peace talks in the Black Sea region could normalize grain exports, adding potential supply and weighing on prices. This uncertainty kept the outlook mixed.

    This points to a geopolitical development that could increase supply and pressure prices.

Latest
▼2▲1

China's Soybean Tariff Snub and Record US Crop Weigh on Prices

  • China Keeps 10% Tariff on US Soybeans China left its extra 10% tariff on US soybeans in place and excluded them from a $30 billion tariff-cut list after the US-China summit. This keeps Chinese buyers hesitant, removes a key demand boost, and pressures soybean prices down.

    This is the clearest new demand-side negative for soybean prices this period.

  • Record US Crop and Favorable Weather Add Supply The USDA and StoneX projected a record US soybean crop near 4.5 billion bushels, and timely Midwest rains supported yields. Ample supply pushes prices down, even as early harvest progress ran slightly behind expectations.

    This is the main new supply-side force weighing on soybean prices.

  • China Still Buys US Soybeans, Crush Demand Strong China kept buying US soybeans, including a 340,000-tonne sale, and has purchased about 7 million tonnes. Strong US crush volumes and solid export inspections show real demand, providing a floor under prices despite the tariff dispute.

    This is the main new counterweight supporting soybean prices.

  • Weather, Biofuel and Black Sea Risks Add Uncertainty Heavy Midwest rain slowed harvest and raised crop-quality worries, supporting prices, while high crude oil boosted biofuel demand for soybean oil. Black Sea war disruptions and peace hopes kept grain supply uncertain, adding both support and pressure.

    These cross-cutting forces explain the mixed, choppy price action around the main drivers.

September 2026
▼2▲1

China's Tariff Snub and Record US Crop Pull Soybeans Down

  • China Leaves Soybeans Off Tariff-Cut List China cut tariffs on many US farm goods but excluded soybeans, keeping an extra 10% import tax that private buyers say is too costly. This removes a key demand boost and pushed soybean futures down 2.3%.

    This is the main new bearish event that directly hit soybean demand and price.

  • USDA Forecasts Record US Soybean Crop The USDA projected a record 4.54 billion bushel soybean crop with higher yields, adding to global supply. Ample supply pushes prices down, and futures fell over 2.6% on the news.

    This new supply shock is a major reason soybean prices are under pressure.

  • China's Ongoing Soybean Purchases Support Demand China continues buying US soybeans, helping lift the overall farm commodity index 13% last quarter. This steady demand provides a floor under prices even as other factors weigh.

    This is a new positive demand factor that counterbalances the bearish news.

  • Black Sea Tensions and Biofuel Demand Add Uncertainty Fighting in the Black Sea keeps grain shipments disrupted, supporting prices, while hopes for a ceasefire could ease supply. Meanwhile, biofuel demand from high oil prices supports soybean oil use.

    These ongoing geopolitical and energy factors create both upward and downward pressure on soybeans.

▼2▲1

China's Tariff Snub and Record US Crop Pull Soybeans Down

  • China Leaves Soybeans Off Tariff-Cut List China cut tariffs on many US farm goods but excluded soybeans, keeping an extra 10% import tax that private buyers say is too costly. This removes a key demand boost and pushed soybean futures down 2.3%.

    This is the main new bearish event that directly hit soybean demand and price.

  • USDA Forecasts Record US Soybean Crop The USDA projected a record 4.54 billion bushel soybean crop with higher yields, adding to global supply. Ample supply pushes prices down, and futures fell over 2.6% on the news.

    This new supply shock is a major reason soybean prices are under pressure.

  • China's Ongoing Soybean Purchases Support Demand China continues buying US soybeans, helping lift the overall farm commodity index 13% last quarter. This steady demand provides a floor under prices even as other factors weigh.

    This is a new positive demand factor that counterbalances the bearish news.

  • Black Sea Tensions and Biofuel Demand Add Uncertainty Fighting in the Black Sea keeps grain shipments disrupted, supporting prices, while hopes for a ceasefire could ease supply. Meanwhile, biofuel demand from high oil prices supports soybean oil use.

    These ongoing geopolitical and energy factors create both upward and downward pressure on soybeans.

▲3▼1

China's Record Soybean Buying and Biofuel Boost Drive Prices to 3-Year High

  • China's Accelerated Soybean Purchases China bought about 1 million tonnes of US soybeans this week, bringing total purchases to nearly half of the 25 million tonne annual target. This strong demand from the world's biggest buyer pushes soybean prices up.

    This is the main new demand driver this period, directly lifting soybean prices to a three-year high.

  • US Biofuel Policy Supports Soybean Demand The EPA granted waivers to small refineries but reallocated the lost biofuel demand to 2026 and 2027, boosting prospects for soybean oil used in renewable diesel. This regulatory support lifts soybean prices.

    This new policy change directly increases demand for soybeans as a biofuel feedstock, a key bullish factor.

  • Black Sea Peace Talks Could Ease Supply Fears Russia signaled openness to peace talks with Ukraine, potentially normalizing Black Sea grain exports. If realized, this would add to global grain supply and pressure soybean prices down.

    This is a new geopolitical development that could reverse the supply-driven price support from the Black Sea conflict.

  • Crude Oil Surge Boosts Biofuel Demand Crude oil prices jumped 4%, with Brent touching $105 a barrel, after tanker attacks. Higher oil prices make biofuels more competitive, increasing demand for soybean oil and supporting soybean prices.

    This new energy market development adds to soybean demand through the biofuel channel, reinforcing the bullish trend.

▲3▼1

Soybeans Supported by Strong Chinese Demand and Black Sea Supply Fears, but USDA Hikes US Crop Outlook

  • China ramps up US soybean purchases China booked at least 13 more cargoes of US soybeans, bringing new-crop orders to about 5 million tonnes. That shows strong demand from the world's biggest buyer, which supports soybean prices.

    This is a new demand event that directly lifts soybean prices.

  • Black Sea tensions threaten grain exports Fighting between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted Black Sea grain shipments, and Ukraine cut its export target by up to 12%. That raises concerns about global grain supplies, pushing soybean prices higher as buyers seek alternatives.

    This is a new supply-side risk that supports soybean prices.

  • Global food prices hit three-year high on drought worries World food prices rose to their highest in over three years, driven by cereals and vegetable oils. Drought in key US growing areas is stressing the soybean crop, which could tighten supplies and push prices up.

    This new report highlights supply risks that support soybean prices.

  • USDA raises US soybean production estimate The USDA now expects a bigger US soybean crop, with production up 44 million bushels from July. That means more supply ahead, which weighs on soybean prices and limits gains from strong demand.

    This is a new supply increase that pressures soybean prices.

July 2026
▲2▼1

Soybeans hit 2-year high then reversed on rain and oil drop

  • Bullish fundamentals lift soybeans to 2-year high USDA cut old-crop stocks by 10 million bushels, export sales ran nearly triple last year's pace, crude oil strength boosted biofuel demand, and dry Corn Belt weather threatened yields, pushing futures to two-year highs.

    Explains the initial surge that defined the first part of the month.

  • Midwest rain and crude oil plunge reverse rally Forecast rain improved crop prospects, pushing November beans from $12.53 to $11.93, while crude oil's $6–7 plunge made soy-based biodiesel less competitive and dragged soy oil lower.

    Captures the sharp late-July reversal driven by weather and energy markets.

  • Solid demand partly offsets bearish factors A large Chinese purchase under a 25-million-ton agreement and Bunge's upbeat profit outlook signaled solid demand, though these positives were outweighed by weather and energy-market pressure.

    Shows the counterweight that limited the downside despite the selloff.

▼2▲1

Soybeans Fall as Rain Hits Dry US Crop and Oil Slumps

  • Rain forecast eases crop stress Forecasts for 1–2 inches of rain across the Midwest and favorable growing conditions pushed soybean futures down sharply, with November beans falling from $12.53 to $11.93. More rain means better crop prospects and larger expected supplies, which lowers prices.

    This is the main new force this period, directly driving the price drop.

  • Crude oil plunge drags soy oil lower Crude oil fell over $6–7 per barrel, making biodiesel from soybean oil less competitive. That weakens demand for soy oil and pulls soybean prices down, since soy oil is a key product made from soybeans.

    Oil's drop is a new negative demand-side driver this period.

  • China purchase hopes and strong processor results News of a large Chinese soybean purchase and Bunge's upbeat profit outlook signal solid demand. China's buying under a 25 million ton agreement and strong processing margins support prices, though these positives were outweighed by weather and oil pressure.

    This is a new positive counterweight that helps explain why the decline wasn't even larger.

▲4

Soybeans Hit Two-Year Highs on Tight US Stocks, Strong Exports, Biofuel Demand

  • USDA cuts old-crop stocks, exports jump The USDA's July report cut 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 330 million, as exports rose by the same amount. That means supplies are tighter than expected, which pushes soybean prices up.

    This is a key new fundamental shift tightening US soybean supplies.

  • Record forward export sales signal strong demand USDA reported forward sales for the 2026/27 marketing year at 1.537 million metric tons, nearly triple last year's pace, with China and unknown buyers active. Strong demand for future delivery supports higher prices now.

    This new data shows robust demand that is driving prices higher.

  • Crude oil surge boosts biofuel demand for soy oil Crude oil prices jumped on Middle East tensions, making biodiesel made from soybean oil more competitive. That links soybean prices to energy markets and adds a new source of demand, pushing prices up.

    This new link to energy markets is a fresh driver of soybean demand.

  • Dry weather threatens US soybean yields Dry conditions in parts of the western Corn Belt and forecasts for continued dryness are stressing the soybean crop. Lower expected yields mean tighter supplies, which supports higher prices.

    Weather is a new supply risk that is pushing prices up.