← Effective Federal Funds Rate overview

Effective Federal Funds Rate vs US Government Bond 2Y: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR.MM)

Latest
▲2▼2

Weak Jobs and Soft Inflation Kill October Hike Bets, but December Hike Still Expected

  • Weak September Jobs Report Slashes October Hike Odds The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 89,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Investors now see an 84% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its October meeting, up from 36% a week earlier. Lower odds of an October hike pull the expected federal funds rate down.

    This is the biggest new force this period, directly cutting near-term rate expectations.

  • Soft PCE Inflation Gives Fed Room to Wait August PCE inflation came in below expectations, with core prices up just 0.2% for the month and 3.0% year-over-year. That reduced the odds of an October hike from 70% to about 42%. Softer inflation means less pressure on the Fed to raise rates soon, which lowers the expected funds rate.

    This is a new data point that directly reduces the urgency for a near-term hike.

  • Fed Minutes Confirm Another Hike Likely by Year-End Minutes from the Fed's September meeting show most officials still expect one more rate hike before the end of 2026, though they did not specify when. Markets now price an 85% chance of a December hike. This keeps the expected funds rate higher for longer, supporting EFFR.MM.

    This is new information from the minutes that keeps upward pressure on the rate despite weak October odds.

  • Oil Above $100 and Middle East Tensions Keep Inflation Risk Alive Brent crude rose back near $105 as Trump reportedly weighs new strikes on Iran. Higher oil prices feed inflation fears, making the Fed more likely to tighten. This supports a higher EFFR.MM even as weak jobs data temporarily lowers October hike odds.

    This is a new geopolitical development that adds upward pressure on rates via inflation.

Q3 2026
▲2▼1

Fed Hikes to 3.75–4.00% as Inflation Pressures Mount

  • Fed Rate Hike The Fed raised its key rate by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%, the first increase since 2023, driven by strong jobs, sticky inflation, and solid business activity.

    This is the main event that directly moved the effective federal funds rate.

  • Inflation Pressures Oil above $100 due to US-Iran tensions and heavy AI investment added to inflation, pushing the Fed to hike to prevent prices from rising too fast.

    These external pressures contributed to the decision to raise rates.

  • Political and Internal Pushback Fed official Waller urged patience, and former President Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates to 1%, creating uncertainty about future rate moves.

    This counterweight shows disagreement that could limit further hikes.

  • Market Uncertainty Treasury buybacks, a shrinking Fed balance sheet, and a global savings squeeze made the outlook unclear, with markets pricing about 70% odds of another hike in October.

    These factors add uncertainty to the future path of rates.

September 2026
▲3

Fed hikes to 3.75–4.00% as inflation and growth run hot

  • Hawkish Fed signals and strong data lift hike odds Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, blowout August jobs, sticky inflation, and strong PMIs pushed September hike odds from ~35% to ~87%, setting the stage for a rate increase.

    This explains the main force that drove the Fed to hike, directly answering what moved EFFR.

  • Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, first since 2023 The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00%, the first hike since 2023, and signaled more tightening ahead, with markets pricing ~70% odds of an October move.

    This is the actual rate change that directly sets the EFFR level.

  • Oil spike and AI boom add inflation pressure Oil above $100 on US-Iran tensions and heavy AI investment spending kept inflation pressures elevated, reinforcing the case for higher rates.

    These external forces contributed to the hawkish shift by keeping inflation high.

  • Political pressure and doubts counter hawkish move Waller urged patience on disinflation, Trump pressured the Fed to cut to 1% and threatened trade measures, and analysts warned hikes may barely dent war-, tariff-, and AI-driven inflation, leaving uncertainty.

    This shows the real counterweight that could limit further hikes or affect the rate path.

▲4

Fed Officials and Hot Data Drive October Rate-Hike Bets Sharply Higher

  • Fed officials line up behind more hikes Chicago Fed's Goolsbee, Governor Barr, Philadelphia Fed's Paulson and New York Fed's Williams all said this week that rates likely need to go higher to bring inflation down to 2%. When voting and influential officials say this, investors expect the actual rate to rise, pushing EFFR.MM up.

    Multiple Fed officials explicitly signaling more hikes directly raises the expected path of the fed funds rate.

  • Strong September PMI data lifts October hike odds to ~70% The September flash PMI jumped to 58.4, a five-year high, showing the economy is running hot. That makes the Fed more likely to hike again, and markets now price about a 70% chance of a quarter-point increase at the October 27-28 meeting, up from 55% a week earlier. Higher expected rates lift EFFR.MM.

    The PMI surprise is the key new data point that shifted market odds for an October hike sharply higher.

  • Investors now bet on two more hikes in 2026 After the strong data and official comments, traders raised bets to a 66% chance of an October hike and a 50% chance of another in December, up from 55% and 42% a week ago. If both happen, the fed funds rate would rise to 4.25-4.50%, pulling EFFR.MM higher.

    This shows the market's expected path for the fed funds rate has shifted up, which is what EFFR.MM tracks.

  • AI investment boom adds to inflation pressure Goolsbee and Paulson both warned that massive AI data-center spending is boosting demand beyond what the economy can supply, keeping inflation sticky. If the Fed sees AI as an inflation driver, it may need higher rates to cool other spending, which supports a higher EFFR.MM.

    A new structural force (AI-driven demand) that could keep upward pressure on rates even if other inflation sources fade.

▲3

Fed Hikes Rates to 3.75–4.00%, Signals One More in 2026

  • Fed delivers first rate hike in three years, raises target to 3.75–4.00% The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, the first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote. This directly lifts the effective federal funds rate, which tracks the Fed's target range.

    This is the actual policy decision that sets the EFFR, making it the most important driver of the period.

  • Fed signals one more hike in 2026, higher-for-longer path The Fed's dot plot shows 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year, with the median year-end 2026 rate at 4.1%. This tells investors rates will stay higher for longer, keeping upward pressure on EFFR.MM.

    Forward guidance about future hikes shapes expectations for where EFFR will go next, beyond the current move.

  • Oil above $100 and sticky inflation force Fed's hand Crude oil surged past $100–$108 on Middle East supply fears, and core inflation remains near 3.4%. These price pressures make the Fed more likely to keep raising rates, pushing EFFR.MM higher.

    Inflation and oil are the root causes forcing the Fed to hike, explaining why EFFR is moving up.

  • Trump pressures Fed to cut to 1%, but Warsh defends independence After the hike, Trump urged the Fed to cut rates to 1% or lower, calling the hike political. But Warsh has defended Fed independence, so this is a real but uncertain counterweight that could lower EFFR.MM if it sways policy.

    This is the main opposing force that could push EFFR down, providing a fair counterweight to the hike.

▲4

Fed Hikes to 3.75–4.00%, Signals More; Goldman Sees October Move

  • Fed delivers first hike since 2023, lifts EFFR directly The Fed raised its target range by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, a unanimous 12-0 vote and the first hike since 2023. Because EFFR.MM tracks this target, the actual rate moves up right away.

    This is the single biggest direct driver of EFFR.MM this period.

  • Fed signals higher-for-longer, dot plot points to more hikes The Fed's projections show 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike in 2026, with four seeing two more. That tells investors rates stay higher for longer, keeping upward pressure on EFFR.MM even after this hike.

    Forward guidance keeps expected rates elevated, which supports EFFR.MM.

  • Oil above $100 and sticky inflation force the Fed's hand Middle East attacks pushed Brent above $105–$108 and WTI above $100, while core inflation stayed near 3.4%. Higher energy costs feed inflation fears, making the Fed more likely to keep raising rates, which pushes EFFR.MM up.

    Oil-driven inflation is the main economic force behind the hike and further tightening expectations.

  • Goldman flips to call for an October hike Goldman Sachs changed its forecast twice in four days and now expects another 0.25% hike in October, citing the Fed's higher inflation forecasts and Warsh's comments. If that happens, EFFR.MM would rise again to 4.00–4.25%.

    A major bank's call for a near-term follow-up hike raises expected rates, supporting EFFR.MM.

▲3▼1

Strong Jobs and Sticky Inflation Push September Rate-Hike Odds to ~87%

  • Blowout August Jobs Report Lifts Rate-Hike Odds The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple the 53,000 expected, and unemployment held at 4.1%. That strength tells investors the economy can handle higher rates, so the odds of a September Fed hike jumped from about 49% to 58% and kept climbing. Higher expected rates lift EFFR.MM.

    This is the first major new data point this period that reset rate expectations upward.

  • Firmer PPI and Hot Core CPI Push Hike Odds to ~87% Producer prices rose 5.4% year over year, above the 5.3% expected, and August core consumer prices rose 0.3% for the month, hotter than the 0.2% forecast. With inflation still sticky, traders now price an 85.8% chance of a quarter-point hike on September 16, up from 72.4% a day earlier. Higher expected rates lift EFFR.MM.

    This is the latest and most decisive new inflation data that drove hike odds sharply higher.

  • Trump Pressures Fed to Cut, Threatens Trade Measures President Trump threatened to suspend trade with surplus countries if the Fed doesn't cut rates before the September 15-16 meeting, and his advisers called a hike 'reckless.' This political pressure could sway the Fed to hold or cut, which would lower EFFR.MM. But Chair Warsh has defended Fed independence, so the effect is a real but uncertain counterweight.

    This is a genuine counterforce that could pull rates down, and readers need to see it alongside the hike odds.

  • War and AI Boom May Blunt Rate Hikes, But Fed Still Expected to Move Analysts warn that Fed rate hikes may have limited effect on inflation driven by the Iran war, tariffs, and massive AI investment, which are less sensitive to interest rates. Even so, the Fed has signaled readiness to hike and futures price roughly 70% odds, so the expected funds rate remains elevated. This keeps upward pressure on EFFR.MM.

    It explains why the Fed is still expected to hike despite doubts about its effectiveness, supporting the upward move in EFFR.MM.

▲3▼1

Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole pushes September rate-hike odds to ~60%, but Waller's dissent and weak inflation data keep it a coin toss

  • Warsh's Jackson Hole speech lifts September rate-hike odds to ~60% Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote was hawkish: he said the Fed will 'have work to do' if inflation isn't clearly heading to 2%, and rejected forward guidance. Markets now price a 55-66% chance of a September hike, up from ~35% before the speech. Higher expected rates lift EFFR.MM.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly raises the expected federal funds rate.

  • Barclays and other analysts now forecast two hikes (Sept and Dec) Barclays reversed its call and now expects the Fed to raise rates in both September and December, each by 25 basis points. Other banks also see more tightening ahead. This adds to expectations of a higher policy rate, pushing EFFR.MM up.

    New analyst forecasts reinforce the upward pressure on expected rates.

  • Oil surge on US-Iran conflict adds to inflation and hike pressure Renewed US-Iran fighting pushed Brent above $90 and WTI above $85, raising inflation concerns. Higher oil prices make the Fed more likely to hike to fight inflation, which lifts the expected federal funds rate.

    A new geopolitical supply shock that feeds into inflation and rate-hike expectations.

  • Waller signals he may support holding rates steady Fed Governor Waller said he could support holding rates steady at the September meeting, urging markets to 'give disinflation a chance.' His comments cut hike odds from 63% to about 50%, lowering the expected federal funds rate. This is a real counterweight to Warsh's hawkish stance.

    A key dissenting voice that reduces the probability of a hike, balancing the positive drivers.

August 2026
▲1▼1

Rate-hike odds swung on weak data and hawkish Fed signals

  • September rate-hike odds whipsawed Early August, traders saw higher odds of a Fed rate hike due to tough talk and high inflation. Then weak jobs and sales data cut those odds to about 29%, before Fed minutes and Warsh's speech pushed them back to 55-60%.

    This directly explains the sharp swings in rate expectations that drove EFFR pricing during the period.

  • Weak economic data lowered hike odds July payrolls fell by 23,000, retail sales dropped, and consumer confidence was soft. These signs of a slowing economy made traders bet the Fed would not raise rates, pulling expected rates down.

    It shows the key data that pushed rate-hike odds lower, a major force on EFFR expectations.

  • Hawkish Fed signals revived hike bets Fed minutes showed growing support for rate hikes, and Warsh's Jackson Hole speech reinforced that view. This lifted September hike odds back to around 55-60%, supporting higher expected rates.

    It captures the Fed communication that reversed the earlier decline in rate-hike odds.

  • Other forces kept rate path uncertain Treasury bond buybacks, doubts about Fed credibility, less forward guidance, a shrinking Fed balance sheet, and a global savings squeeze all pulled in different directions, leaving the net rate path unclear.

    It highlights the counterweights that prevented a clear direction for EFFR, balancing the narrative.

▲2

Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Makes a September Rate Hike the Base Case

  • Warsh's Jackson Hole speech jolts rate-hike odds to ~60% Fed Chair Warsh said the Fed will 'have work to do' if inflation isn't clearly heading to 2%, and that financial conditions aren't restrictive. Traders now price about a 55-60% chance of a September hike, up from roughly 35% before the speech. Higher expected rates lift EFFR.MM.

    This is the period's decisive new event: it directly reset market odds for the fed funds rate.

  • Hammack and other officials push for immediate tightening Cleveland Fed President Hammack said the Fed is far from its inflation target and should tighten now; she was one of three July dissenters who voted to hike. Officials openly backing hikes reinforce the market's move toward expecting higher rates.

    It shows the hike signal is not just Warsh's personal view but has committee support.

  • Treasury bond buybacks and global savings squeeze pull the other way The Treasury doubled purchases of long-dated bonds to push yields down, which could offset Fed tightening and delay a hike. But a global savings squeeze and heavy AI borrowing are pushing long-term yields up anyway, so the net effect on expected rates is uncertain.

    It is the real counterweight: it could soften the case for hikes even as inflation stays high.

▲2▼1

Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Push for Rate Hikes

  • Fed minutes show many officials now favor rate hikes The July Fed meeting minutes revealed that many officials believe rate hikes will be needed if inflation stays above 2%. Three officials already voted to hike. This makes traders expect higher rates ahead, pushing the expected federal funds rate up.

    This is the most direct and important new signal about the future path of the federal funds rate.

  • Core inflation stuck near 3.3% keeps pressure on Fed Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, remains near 3.3% — well above the Fed's 2% goal. Tariffs and supply-chain issues keep prices high. This persistent inflation forces the Fed to consider raising rates, lifting the expected funds rate.

    Persistent core inflation is the fundamental reason the Fed may hike, directly driving rate expectations.

  • Weak retail sales cut odds of near-term hikes July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first drop in nine months and worse than expected. Consumers are pulling back, which slows the economy. This makes traders bet the Fed will hold off on hiking until at least December, lowering the expected funds rate.

    Weak consumer spending is a key counterweight that reduces the urgency for rate hikes.

  • Treasury buybacks and Fed silence add uncertainty The Treasury is doubling buybacks of long-term bonds to lower yields, but JPMorgan warns it may not work and could raise long-term rates. Meanwhile, the Fed's lack of guidance and possible credit downgrade add volatility. The net effect on the expected funds rate is unclear.

    This shows a real counterweight and uncertainty that could push rate expectations in either direction.

▲2▼2

Rate-Hike Odds Fade as Jobs and Consumer Data Weaken

  • Weak July jobs report cuts September hike odds July payrolls fell 23,000, far below the expected 85,000 gain, and prior months were revised lower. Investors now see a September rate hike as much less likely, with odds falling from 67% to around 40-44%. This lowers the expected federal funds rate.

    This is the main new data point that shifted market expectations for the Fed's next move.

  • Weak retail sales and consumer confidence push hike odds even lower July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first drop in nine months and the biggest in 14 months, badly missing forecasts. Consumer confidence also weakened. By August 14, traders saw only a 28.6% chance of a September hike, down from above 50% a week earlier, as investors bet rates stay at 3.50%-3.75%.

    This is the newest data showing the consumer is slowing, which directly reduces the chance of a rate hike.

  • Fed officials and BofA still point to higher rates Kansas City Fed President Schmid said policy may need to tighten further, and three Fed officials voted to hike in July. Bank of America expects 75 basis points of additional hikes in 2026, bringing the rate to 4.25%-4.50%. This keeps upward pressure on the expected funds rate.

    This is the main counterweight: not everyone agrees the Fed is done, and some still expect hikes.

  • Warsh's communication shift and balance-sheet plans tighten policy Chair Warsh is reducing forward guidance and wants to shrink the Fed's $6.75 trillion balance sheet. Both moves can push long-term rates higher even without raising the official funds rate. This adds to uncertainty and keeps upward pressure on borrowing costs.

    This explains a new way the Fed could tighten policy beyond just changing the funds rate target.

▲2▼1

Fed hike bets surge on inflation, then weak jobs data flips odds to a hold

  • Fed officials signal readiness to hike rates Multiple Fed officials, including Governor Cook and three FOMC dissenters, said they are prepared to raise rates if inflation stays high. Chair Warsh also said he has 'no tolerance' for elevated inflation and is ready to hike in September if data confirm rising prices. This pushes the expected federal funds rate up.

    Directly raises the expected path of the policy rate, which is what EFFR tracks.

  • Inflation stays high on tariffs and Iran war Inflation is running at a three-year high of 4.2%, driven by Trump's tariffs on over 80 countries and the Iran war that closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing energy and input costs higher. This persistent inflation forces the Fed to consider rate hikes, lifting the expected federal funds rate.

    Explains the underlying inflation pressure that is driving the Fed toward rate hikes.

  • Weak July jobs report slashes rate-hike odds July payrolls fell by 23,000, far below expectations, and prior months were revised lower. Investors now see a September rate hike as less likely, with the probability dropping from 67% to around 40-44%. This lowers the expected federal funds rate.

    Directly reduces the probability of a near-term rate hike, pulling the expected policy rate down.

  • Fed credibility doubts cut both ways Markets question the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, with long-term bond yields rising and critics saying Warsh's tough talk lacks action. Some warn this could force the Fed to hike more later to regain credibility, while others see it as a reason the Fed may hold off. The net effect on the expected funds rate is uncertain.

    Shows a real counterweight: credibility concerns could push rates up or down, making the overall direction mixed.

US Government Bond 2Y (US-2Y.GB)

Latest
▲2▼2

Strong Data and Oil Keep 2-Year Yield Near 4.8%, Fed Hold Bets Grow

  • Strong economic data pushes 2-year yield to multi-decade highs Durable goods orders beat forecasts, with business spending surging, while the 2-year yield hit 4.906% and the 30-year reached a 24-year high. Strong data supports the case for the Fed to keep rates high, pushing the 2-year yield up.

    This point explains how robust economic data directly lifted the 2-year yield to multi-decade highs.

  • Cooler PCE inflation pulls 2-year yield down to 4.827% August PCE inflation came in below expectations, easing fears of more Fed hikes. Investors now see a 62.9% chance the Fed holds rates in October, up from 49.1%. The 2-year yield fell to 4.827% as lower expected short-term rates push bond prices up.

    This point shows how softer inflation data reduced rate-hike odds and pulled the 2-year yield lower.

  • Oil slump and weak services data boost Fed hold bets, 2-year yield falls to 4.787% A sharp drop in oil prices and a weaker ISM services index raised the odds of a Fed hold in October to 78.4%, up from 29.1% a week earlier. The 2-year yield fell to 4.787% as investors scaled back rate-hike expectations.

    This point highlights how falling oil and soft services data lowered rate-hike expectations, pulling the 2-year yield down.

  • Oil supply fears and Fed minutes revive hike bets, 2-year yield back to 4.818% Concerns over oil supply from the Iran conflict pushed oil higher, reviving inflation worries. The Fed's September minutes showed officials divided, but markets still price an 85% chance of a December hike. The 2-year yield rose to 4.818% as rate-hike bets grew.

    This point explains how geopolitical oil supply fears and Fed minutes renewed rate-hike expectations, lifting the 2-year yield.

Q3 2026
▼2▲1

US 2-Year Yield Hits 2025 High on Fed Hikes, Fiscal Worries

  • Fed rate-hike fears and actual hike Under Chair Warsh, the Fed raised rates in September and signaled no cuts until 2028, pushing the 2-year yield to its highest since January 2025. Strong August payrolls and hot PPI added to the case for higher rates.

    This was the main driver of the yield's rise to a new high.

  • Fiscal worries and heavy bill issuance Federal debt above $40 trillion and heavy issuance of short-term bills increased the supply of government debt, pushing yields higher as investors demanded more compensation to hold it.

    This added upward pressure on yields independently of Fed policy.

  • Easing Middle East tensions and falling oil Easing Middle East tensions and falling oil prices reduced inflation fears, while Treasury buybacks and cooler PCE data also helped pull yields back from their peak.

    These factors provided a counterweight that prevented yields from rising even further.

  • Weak jobs report vs. rising oil and strong PMI A weak September jobs report (29,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemployment) pulled yields lower, but rising oil and a strong PMI kept inflation fears alive, leaving yields elevated around 4.73%.

    This shows the tug-of-war that left yields high but off their peak.

September 2026
▼2▲1

Fed hike and hot inflation spike yields, then weak data pull back

  • Fed hike and hawkish dot plot The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signaled no cuts until 2028, pushing the 2-year yield to 4.74% as markets repriced higher-for-longer policy.

    This was the primary force driving yields sharply higher in early September.

  • Hot PPI and oil above $100 Hot producer price inflation and oil prices above $100 reinforced fears that inflation remains sticky, adding upward pressure on yields and keeping the Fed hawkish.

    Inflation data and energy costs directly influence rate expectations and bond yields.

  • Cooler PCE and weak jobs report Cooler PCE inflation and a weak jobs report (29,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemployment) slashed rate-hike odds, pulling the 2-year yield down to around 4.73%.

    This late-September reversal was a major new development that eased rate expectations.

  • Rising oil and strong PMI limit decline Rising oil prices and a strong PMI kept inflation fears alive, limiting the decline in yields and leaving them elevated but off their highs.

    This counterweight prevented a larger drop in yields, showing persistent inflation risks.

▼2▲1

Cooling Inflation and Weak Jobs Data Pull 2-Year Yield Down from Highs

  • Cooler PCE Inflation Raises Odds Fed Holds Rates August PCE inflation came in below expectations (3.4% vs 3.7% forecast), easing fears of more Fed hikes. Investors now see a 62.9% chance the Fed holds rates in October, up from 49.1%. The 2-year yield fell to 4.827%, as lower expected short-term rates push bond prices up.

    This is a key new event that directly lowered the 2-year yield by changing Fed rate expectations.

  • Weak September Jobs Report Slashes Rate-Hike Bets September payrolls rose only 29,000, far below the 89,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Investors now price an 83.9% chance the Fed holds rates in October, up from 35.8% a week ago. The 2-year yield fell to 4.730%, as weaker jobs reduce pressure for higher rates.

    This is the latest major data point that significantly shifted Fed expectations and pushed the 2-year yield down.

  • Rising Oil and Strong PMI Keep Inflation Fears Alive Oil prices above $93 (WTI) and a 62-month high in the composite PMI (58.4) with rising price pressures kept inflation concerns elevated. This supported expectations of further Fed hikes, limiting the fall in the 2-year yield, which remained near 4.9% before the PCE data.

    This is a counterweight that prevented a larger drop in the 2-year yield, showing the forces pushing in the opposite direction.

▲4

Fed Hikes Again, Signals More; 2-Year Yield Jumps to 4.74%

  • Fed's First Rate Hike in 3 Years Pushes 2-Year Yield to 4.74% The Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%, the first hike since 2023, and signaled one more increase this year. The 2-year yield jumped to 4.74%, its highest since 2024, as bond prices fell. Higher short-term rates directly lift the 2-year yield.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly drives the 2-year yield higher.

  • Hawkish Dot Plot Shows Higher Rates for Longer The Fed's projections now see rates at 4.1% by end-2026, up from 3.8%, and no cuts until 2028. This 'higher for longer' message keeps upward pressure on the 2-year yield, as investors expect short-term rates to stay elevated.

    The dot plot revision is a key new signal that reinforces the upward trend in the 2-year yield.

  • Treasury Buyback Disappointment and Supply Worries Lift Yields The Treasury's expanded buyback was smaller than expected, and weak demand at the operation highlighted fiscal concerns. This added to selling pressure, pushing the 2-year yield to a two-year high before the Fed meeting.

    This new supply/demand imbalance contributed to the rise in the 2-year yield ahead of the Fed.

  • Hot PPI and Oil Prices Keep Inflation Fears Alive August PPI came in hotter than expected at 5.4%, and oil prices above $100 added to inflation worries. This reinforced expectations of a Fed hike, pushing the 2-year yield up 16 basis points to 4.59% before the meeting.

    Inflation data and oil prices are new drivers that increased rate-hike odds and lifted the 2-year yield.

August 2026
▲2▼2

Fed rate-hike fears push 2-year Treasury yield to 2025 high

  • Fed rate-hike expectations Fed Chair Warsh warned inflation remains at 3.7%, reviving rate-hike odds. Strong August payrolls (162,000 vs. 55,000 expected) then drove the 2-year yield to roughly 4.38–4.43%, its highest since January 2025, as markets priced a 60% chance of a September hike.

    This is the main new force that pushed yields up and bond prices down during the period.

  • Easing Middle East tensions and falling oil Easing Middle East tensions and falling oil prices briefly supported bonds, as lower energy costs can reduce inflation pressures and make fixed-income more attractive.

    This is a new counterweight that helped bond prices and limited the yield rise.

  • Treasury buybacks Treasury buybacks also provided temporary support for bonds, as the government buying back its own debt can help keep a lid on yields.

    This is another new factor that acted as a counterweight to the upward yield pressure.

  • Fiscal worries and heavy bill issuance Fiscal worries persist: federal debt above $40 trillion and heavy short-term bill issuance risk pushing short-term rates higher, which could keep upward pressure on the 2-year yield.

    This is a new ongoing risk that could continue to weigh on bond prices.

▲2▼1

Strong August Jobs Data Lifts 2-Year Yield to 2025 High on Rate-Hike Bets

  • Strong August Jobs Report Pushes 2-Year Yield to Highest Since January 2025 August payrolls rose 162,000, far above the 55,000 expected, and wages grew 3.1%. Traders now see a 60% chance of a September Fed rate hike, up from 49%. The 2-year yield jumped to about 4.38-4.43%, its highest since January 2025, so the bond's price fell.

    This is the period's biggest new force: hot jobs data directly raised rate-hike odds and drove the 2-year yield to a multi-month high.

  • Treasury Buybacks and Easing Middle East Tensions Briefly Support Bonds Early in the period, easing Middle East tensions and falling oil pulled the 2-year yield down to about 4.20%. The Treasury's expanded long-term buybacks also briefly pushed yields lower, but the effect faded within a day as inflation and debt worries returned.

    This is the real counterweight: forces that briefly pushed yields down before the jobs data reversed them.

  • Fiscal Worries and Heavy Short-Term Bill Supply Risk Pushing Short-Term Rates Higher Federal debt has topped $40 trillion, and funding the Treasury's buybacks means issuing more short-term bills. That extra supply can push short-term rates up, and markets speculate the Fed may have to buy bonds to prevent a spike, adding to upward pressure on the 2-year yield.

    It explains a structural supply-and-fiscal force that keeps upward pressure on short-term yields beyond the jobs report.

▲2▼1

Jobs Weakness Then Warsh's Inflation Warning Whiplash 2-Year Yields

  • Weak July Jobs Report Pulls 2-Year Yield Down A surprisingly weak July jobs report showed payrolls fell by 23,000, far below the expected 80,000 gain. That eased fears of a Fed rate hike, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield down about 7 basis points to roughly 4.18%. Lower yields mean the bond's price rose.

    This was the first major event of the period and directly drove the 2-year yield lower, answering what moved it.

  • Warsh's Jackson Hole Warning Lifts Rate-Hike Odds Fed Chair Warsh said the Fed 'will have work to do' if inflation doesn't clearly return to 2%, noting inflation is still 3.7%. Traders raised the chance of a September rate hike to about 50-56% from roughly 35-40%. The 2-year yield jumped to around 4.28-4.31%, a one-month high, as bond prices fell.

    This is the period's biggest new driver, reversing the earlier yield drop and pushing the 2-year yield sharply higher.

  • Markets Reprice for Possible Fed Hike, Not Cuts After Warsh's speech, markets moved to price in a possible rate hike rather than cuts. The 2-year yield rose 7-9 basis points, the dollar strengthened, and stocks and bitcoin fell. This confirms the shift in expectations that keeps upward pressure on the 2-year yield.

    It shows the broad market reaction that reinforces the higher-for-longer rate outlook driving the 2-year yield.