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Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold vs Glencore: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)

Q3 2026
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FCX Q3: Record Copper Prices Offset Grasberg Delays and Tariff Uncertainty

  • Record copper prices on AI demand Copper prices hit record highs in Q3, driven by AI data-center demand. This lifted Freeport's revenue and profit, with Q2 earnings beating at $984 million despite lower sales volumes.

    Record copper prices were a key positive driver for FCX's financial performance in Q3.

  • Analyst upgrades and higher price targets Analysts raised EPS estimates to $0.60 and later $0.74, with price targets of $70–$82. These upgrades reflect confidence in Freeport's earnings power amid strong copper prices.

    Analyst upgrades directly influence investor sentiment and stock price.

  • Tariff uncertainty erases copper rally White House tariff uncertainty erased a copper rally, causing an 8% single-day drop in FCX shares. This highlights the stock's reliance on expected tariffs for competitive advantage.

    Tariff uncertainty was a major negative event that caused a sharp price decline.

  • Grasberg ramp-up delays cut sales volumes Grasberg ramp-up delays cut copper sales volumes roughly 30% year over year, with mill throughput at only 67% of normal. Unit cash costs ran about 5% above estimates, pressuring margins.

    Operational setbacks at Grasberg directly reduced sales and increased costs, weighing on the stock.

August 2026
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Record Copper Prices and AI Demand Lift FCX, But Tariff Doubts and Grasberg Delays Weigh

  • Record Copper Prices on AI Demand Copper prices hit record highs due to AI data-center demand and tight supply, boosting Freeport's revenue and earnings. The company beat estimates with $0.74 EPS, and analysts raised price targets to $70–$82, projecting strong growth.

    This point explains the main positive force behind FCX's performance in August 2026.

  • Tariff Doubts Erase Copper Rally White House tariff uncertainties erased a copper rally, causing FCX to drop 8% in a single day. This shows how much the stock relies on expected tariffs that may not materialize, adding volatility.

    This point highlights a key risk that emerged during the period, affecting investor sentiment.

  • Grasberg Ramp-Up Delays Cut Sales Volumes Grasberg ramp-up delays reduced copper sales volumes by about 30% year over year, with further declines expected. Mill throughput is only 67% of normal, and 60,000 ounces of gold sales were deferred to Q4, pushing unit cash costs about 5% above estimates.

    This point explains a major operational setback that is capping near-term profit despite strong prices.

Latest
▲2▼1

Copper strength and earnings beats lift FCX, but Grasberg and gold deferrals cap output

  • AI-driven copper demand and record prices boost FCX earnings Copper hit $14,745 per ton as AI data centers drive demand and Shanghai inventories fell to their lowest since 2023. FCX beat earnings estimates with EPS of $0.74, helped by a 41.5% jump in average copper prices. Higher copper prices directly lift FCX's revenue and profit.

    This is the core positive force behind FCX's earnings and stock price, driven by new record copper prices and a strong earnings beat.

  • Analysts raise targets and see more earnings growth ahead Analysts lifted FCX's fair value to $72.59 and set price targets of $70–$82, citing copper leverage and Grasberg progress. They project 46% EPS growth this quarter and 59% for the full year. Zacks sees another earnings beat on October 27. This supports the stock by drawing buyers and raising expectations.

    Shows analyst optimism and expected earnings growth, which can push the stock higher as investors anticipate strong results.

  • Grasberg recovery slow and gold sales deferred, raising costs Grasberg mill throughput is only 67% of normal, and FCX deferred 60,000 ounces of gold sales from Q3 to Q4, cutting Q3 gold sales to 100,000 ounces. Unit cash costs are now about 5% above the July estimate. Lower sales and higher costs weigh on near-term profit.

    This is the main counterweight: operational setbacks and cost pressures that limit how much FCX can benefit from high copper prices.

▲2▼2

Copper hits record on AI demand, then tariff doubt knocks FCX back

  • AI data-center demand and tight copper supply push prices to record Copper hit an all-time high as AI data centers (about 50,000 tonnes per gigawatt) add huge new demand while global mine supply falls and inventories shrink. Higher copper prices directly lift FCX's revenue and profit, and analysts raised targets toward $75.

    This is the core force behind FCX's run and the biggest positive driver this period.

  • White House tariff doubt wipes out copper rally, FCX drops 8% Reports that the White House may not tax refined/processed copper removed a key reason US copper prices had run up, and copper miners reversed hard. FCX fell 8% in a day, showing how much of its recent gain rested on expected tariffs rather than current earnings.

    This is the main new negative force and the clearest explanation for FCX's sharp pullback.

  • Goldman says tariff selloff is an overreaction, keeps Buy Goldman Sachs said the Reuters tariff report contained no new decision and called the 7-8% drop an attractive entry point, reiterating Buy. That analyst support can steady the stock and draw buyers back after the tariff-driven slump.

    It is the main counterweight to the tariff selloff and directly addresses whether the drop is justified.

  • Grasberg ramp-up delays keep FCX's own copper output down FCX's copper sales volumes fell about 30% year over year and Q3 guidance implies a further 23% decline, with full-year guidance cut to ~3.1 billion pounds. Even with strong prices, lower volumes cap how much FCX can sell and profit.

    It is the company-specific operational drag that limits FCX's benefit from high copper prices.

July 2026
▲3

Grasberg Output Still Weak, But Q2 Profit Beat and AI Copper Demand Lift FCX

  • Q2 profit beat Freeport reported second-quarter profit of $984 million, up from $772 million a year earlier, beating expectations. Even though revenue fell 7.3%, the profit rise shows the company is controlling costs and making more money per pound of copper, which supports the stock.

    This is the most concrete new financial result this period and directly shows improved profitability.

  • AI data centers drive copper demand Zacks named Freeport one of three copper stocks set to benefit from the AI data center boom, with hyperscaler AI spending hitting $750 billion in 2026. Data centers use far more copper than regular buildings, boosting long-term demand for Freeport's copper.

    This reinforces the long-term demand story that is a key reason investors hold FCX.

  • Analysts raise EPS forecast Analysts lifted their earnings estimate for Freeport's upcoming quarter to $0.60 per share, up 11.1% from a year ago, citing cost control and efficiency. This signals confidence in the company's ability to manage expenses even as revenue is expected to fall.

    It shows analysts see improving profitability, which can attract buyers.

▲3

Grasberg Output Still Weak, But Q2 Profit Beat and AI Copper Demand Lift FCX

  • Q2 profit beat Freeport reported second-quarter profit of $984 million, up from $772 million a year earlier, beating expectations. Even though revenue fell 7.3%, the profit rise shows the company is controlling costs and making more money per pound of copper, which supports the stock.

    This is the most concrete new financial result this period and directly shows improved profitability.

  • AI data centers drive copper demand Zacks named Freeport one of three copper stocks set to benefit from the AI data center boom, with hyperscaler AI spending hitting $750 billion in 2026. Data centers use far more copper than regular buildings, boosting long-term demand for Freeport's copper.

    This reinforces the long-term demand story that is a key reason investors hold FCX.

  • Analysts raise EPS forecast Analysts lifted their earnings estimate for Freeport's upcoming quarter to $0.60 per share, up 11.1% from a year ago, citing cost control and efficiency. This signals confidence in the company's ability to manage expenses even as revenue is expected to fall.

    It shows analysts see improving profitability, which can attract buyers.

Q2 2026
▲3▼1

Grasberg Delays Cut Output, But Tariff and AI Copper Demand Lift FCX

  • Grasberg recovery pushed to 2028, 2026 output cut Freeport delayed full recovery at its key Grasberg mine to early 2028 after a mudflow and cut its 2026 copper sales outlook. That means less copper sold near term, which weighs on profit and the stock.

    This is the main new negative event directly hitting FCX's production and earnings.

  • 50% US copper import tariff favors FCX A 50% US tariff on imported copper makes Freeport's American-mined copper more valuable. As the largest US producer, FCX captures higher prices and is seen as a better bet than Southern Copper.

    This is a new regulatory tailwind that directly boosts FCX's pricing power and competitive position.

  • Organic growth projects to boost copper output Freeport outlined expansions at El Abra, Bagdad, and Kucing Liar that could add billions of pounds of copper. These projects promise future production growth and support the bull case for the stock.

    This is a new company-specific growth catalyst that investors are watching.

  • AI data centers and electrification drive copper demand AI data centers need up to 50,000 tons of copper each, and global copper demand is projected to outstrip supply by 2040. As the largest publicly traded copper miner, Freeport benefits from this long-term demand story.

    This is the big-picture demand driver that underpins the bullish case for copper and FCX.

June 2026
▲3▼1

Grasberg Delays Cut Output, But Tariff and AI Copper Demand Lift FCX

  • Grasberg recovery pushed to 2028, 2026 output cut Freeport delayed full recovery at its key Grasberg mine to early 2028 after a mudflow and cut its 2026 copper sales outlook. That means less copper sold near term, which weighs on profit and the stock.

    This is the main new negative event directly hitting FCX's production and earnings.

  • 50% US copper import tariff favors FCX A 50% US tariff on imported copper makes Freeport's American-mined copper more valuable. As the largest US producer, FCX captures higher prices and is seen as a better bet than Southern Copper.

    This is a new regulatory tailwind that directly boosts FCX's pricing power and competitive position.

  • Organic growth projects to boost copper output Freeport outlined expansions at El Abra, Bagdad, and Kucing Liar that could add billions of pounds of copper. These projects promise future production growth and support the bull case for the stock.

    This is a new company-specific growth catalyst that investors are watching.

  • AI data centers and electrification drive copper demand AI data centers need up to 50,000 tons of copper each, and global copper demand is projected to outstrip supply by 2040. As the largest publicly traded copper miner, Freeport benefits from this long-term demand story.

    This is the big-picture demand driver that underpins the bullish case for copper and FCX.

▲3▼1

Grasberg Delays Cut Output, But Tariff and AI Copper Demand Lift FCX

  • Grasberg recovery pushed to 2028, 2026 output cut Freeport delayed full recovery at its key Grasberg mine to early 2028 after a mudflow and cut its 2026 copper sales outlook. That means less copper sold near term, which weighs on profit and the stock.

    This is the main new negative event directly hitting FCX's production and earnings.

  • 50% US copper import tariff favors FCX A 50% US tariff on imported copper makes Freeport's American-mined copper more valuable. As the largest US producer, FCX captures higher prices and is seen as a better bet than Southern Copper.

    This is a new regulatory tailwind that directly boosts FCX's pricing power and competitive position.

  • Organic growth projects to boost copper output Freeport outlined expansions at El Abra, Bagdad, and Kucing Liar that could add billions of pounds of copper. These projects promise future production growth and support the bull case for the stock.

    This is a new company-specific growth catalyst that investors are watching.

  • AI data centers and electrification drive copper demand AI data centers need up to 50,000 tons of copper each, and global copper demand is projected to outstrip supply by 2040. As the largest publicly traded copper miner, Freeport benefits from this long-term demand story.

    This is the big-picture demand driver that underpins the bullish case for copper and FCX.

Glencore PLC (GLEN.LSE)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

Glencore surges on profit jump, buyback, copper growth; fraud scandal weighs

  • Profit surge and shareholder returns First-half profit jumped 86% to $4.4bn, driven by Middle East conflict-related commodity prices. Glencore announced a $500m buyback and an 8.5c special dividend, returning cash to shareholders.

    This is the main positive force behind the stock's rise, showing strong earnings and cash returns.

  • Copper output growth and bullish outlook Copper output rose 15%, on track for 1 million tonnes by 2028. BofA raised its copper price forecast by 20% and rated Glencore a Buy, boosting investor confidence.

    Copper is a key profit driver, and higher output plus analyst upgrades support the stock.

  • Trading arm outperformance and new deals The trading division earned $3.3bn, already exceeding all of last year. Glencore also signed a $1bn battery-recycling offtake and backed the Marathon copper project, expanding future growth.

    Trading profits provide stability and the new deals signal strategic expansion.

  • Radiant fraud scandal deepens An executive was suspended amid a $2bn lawsuit and a $480m provision, raising legal and reputational risks. This scandal could weigh on the stock despite strong operational results.

    This is the main counterweight, highlighting potential legal and reputational damage.

September 2026
▲3▼1

Glencore hit by fraud scandal, but copper and recycling deals lift outlook

  • Radiant fraud scandal deepens Glencore suspended an executive after messages showed he told Radiant to avoid email, and faces a $2bn lawsuit plus a $480m provision. This raises legal and reputational risk, weighing on the shares.

    This is the biggest negative force this period, directly hitting Glencore's finances and trust.

  • BofA raises copper forecast, rates Glencore Buy BofA lifted its long-term copper price forecast 20% to $12,000 and rated Glencore Buy with a 650p target, citing copper growth options. Higher copper prices mean more profit for Glencore's key metal.

    Analyst upgrade and higher copper price forecast directly support Glencore's valuation.

  • Glencore signs $1bn battery recycling offtake Glencore will supply black mass to Nth Cycle and buy back lithium and nickel over ten years. This expands its battery-materials trading and positions it in the growing recycling market.

    New long-term supply deal adds a revenue stream and strengthens Glencore's battery metals business.

  • Glencore backs Marathon copper project Glencore invested in Generation Mining's Marathon project and agreed to buy its copper concentrate for its Horne smelter. This secures feed for its processing assets and supports future copper supply.

    Investment and offtake deal enhance Glencore's copper business and downstream operations.

Latest
▲3▼1

Glencore hit by fraud scandal, but copper and recycling deals lift outlook

  • Radiant fraud scandal deepens Glencore suspended an executive after messages showed he told Radiant to avoid email, and faces a $2bn lawsuit plus a $480m provision. This raises legal and reputational risk, weighing on the shares.

    This is the biggest negative force this period, directly hitting Glencore's finances and trust.

  • BofA raises copper forecast, rates Glencore Buy BofA lifted its long-term copper price forecast 20% to $12,000 and rated Glencore Buy with a 650p target, citing copper growth options. Higher copper prices mean more profit for Glencore's key metal.

    Analyst upgrade and higher copper price forecast directly support Glencore's valuation.

  • Glencore signs $1bn battery recycling offtake Glencore will supply black mass to Nth Cycle and buy back lithium and nickel over ten years. This expands its battery-materials trading and positions it in the growing recycling market.

    New long-term supply deal adds a revenue stream and strengthens Glencore's battery metals business.

  • Glencore backs Marathon copper project Glencore invested in Generation Mining's Marathon project and agreed to buy its copper concentrate for its Horne smelter. This secures feed for its processing assets and supports future copper supply.

    Investment and offtake deal enhance Glencore's copper business and downstream operations.

July 2026
▲4

Glencore's profit surges on Middle East volatility, buyback and Australian listing planned

  • First-half profit surges 86% on Middle East conflict Glencore swung to a $4.4 billion first-half profit from a loss last year, with earnings up 86% as commodity prices jumped during the Iran war. This beat expectations and directly boosts the shares.

    This is the core new financial result driving the stock higher.

  • Trading arm profits $3.3 billion in first half Glencore's marketing business made about $3.3 billion in the first half, already more than all of last year, thanks to wild price swings during the Iran war. This shows the company can profit from volatility.

    Highlights a key earnings driver that exceeded full-year 2025 already.

  • $500 million buyback and special dividend announced Glencore will buy back $500 million of its own shares and pay a special cash distribution of 8.5 cents per share. Returning cash to shareholders supports the share price.

    Buybacks and special dividends are direct positive signals for the stock.

  • Copper production up 15%, on track for 1 million tonnes First-half copper output rose 15%, and Glencore remains on track to produce about 1 million tonnes annually by 2028. Higher volumes mean more revenue and profit potential.

    Shows operational growth that underpins future earnings.

▲4

Glencore's profit surges on Middle East volatility, buyback and Australian listing planned

  • First-half profit surges 86% on Middle East conflict Glencore swung to a $4.4 billion first-half profit from a loss last year, with earnings up 86% as commodity prices jumped during the Iran war. This beat expectations and directly boosts the shares.

    This is the core new financial result driving the stock higher.

  • Trading arm profits $3.3 billion in first half Glencore's marketing business made about $3.3 billion in the first half, already more than all of last year, thanks to wild price swings during the Iran war. This shows the company can profit from volatility.

    Highlights a key earnings driver that exceeded full-year 2025 already.

  • $500 million buyback and special dividend announced Glencore will buy back $500 million of its own shares and pay a special cash distribution of 8.5 cents per share. Returning cash to shareholders supports the share price.

    Buybacks and special dividends are direct positive signals for the stock.

  • Copper production up 15%, on track for 1 million tonnes First-half copper output rose 15%, and Glencore remains on track to produce about 1 million tonnes annually by 2028. Higher volumes mean more revenue and profit potential.

    Shows operational growth that underpins future earnings.