← The Gap overview

The Gap vs The TJX Companies: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

The Gap, Inc. (GAP)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Gap Q2 Beat and Guidance Raise Offset by Old Navy Weakness and Tariffs

  • Q2 Earnings Beat and Raised Guidance Gap beat Q2 earnings estimates with $0.52 per share and raised full-year profit guidance to $2.35–$2.45, lifting shares roughly 13%.

    This was the primary positive catalyst for the stock during the period.

  • Gap Brand Momentum The Gap brand posted 10% comparable sales growth for an 11th straight quarter, aided by celebrity partnerships and Middle East expansion.

    This shows continued strength in a key brand, supporting the positive earnings surprise.

  • Old Navy Sales Decline and CEO Change Old Navy, nearly 60% of revenue, saw a 4% sales drop—its first negative comparable quarter in 12 quarters—prompting a new CEO appointment.

    This is a major negative development that offsets the positive earnings news.

  • Tariff Costs and One-Time Margin Boost A 12.5% US tariff on Vietnam raises supply-chain costs, overall sales fell 2%, and much of the gross margin gain came from one-time tariff refunds rather than core operations.

    This highlights underlying risks and the unsustainable nature of some profit improvement.

August 2026
▲2▼2

Gap Q2 Beat and Guidance Raise Offset by Old Navy Weakness and Tariffs

  • Q2 Earnings Beat and Raised Guidance Gap beat Q2 earnings estimates with $0.52 per share and raised full-year profit guidance to $2.35–$2.45, lifting shares roughly 13%.

    This was the primary positive catalyst for the stock during the period.

  • Gap Brand Momentum The Gap brand posted 10% comparable sales growth for an 11th straight quarter, aided by celebrity partnerships and Middle East expansion.

    This shows continued strength in a key brand, supporting the positive earnings surprise.

  • Old Navy Sales Decline and CEO Change Old Navy, nearly 60% of revenue, saw a 4% sales drop—its first negative comparable quarter in 12 quarters—prompting a new CEO appointment.

    This is a major negative development that offsets the positive earnings news.

  • Tariff Costs and One-Time Margin Boost A 12.5% US tariff on Vietnam raises supply-chain costs, overall sales fell 2%, and much of the gross margin gain came from one-time tariff refunds rather than core operations.

    This highlights underlying risks and the unsustainable nature of some profit improvement.

Latest
▲2▼2

Gap's profit beat and raised outlook offset Old Navy and Athleta weakness

  • Q2 profit beat and raised full-year earnings outlook Gap reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $0.52 per share, beating the $0.50 estimate, and raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $2.35–$2.45. Shares jumped about 13% on the news. The raised profit guidance signals management confidence and supports a higher stock price.

    This is the core positive event that drove GAP shares up sharply this period.

  • Old Navy sales slump and new CEO appointment Old Navy, nearly 60% of Gap's revenue, posted a 4% sales drop and its first negative comparable sales in 12 quarters. Gap named retail veteran Michael Francis as its new CEO. The weakness drags on overall results, but the leadership change aims to fix the brand.

    Old Navy's decline is the biggest drag on Gap's overall performance and a key reason the stock's rally is not stronger.

  • Athleta remains in a deep slump with no permanent leader Athleta has posted negative comparable sales for nearly two years, and its top executive left for Lululemon, leaving the division without a permanent leader. Management warned the brand will keep weighing on results. This ongoing weakness limits Gap's overall growth.

    Athleta's prolonged troubles are a persistent counterweight to Gap's otherwise improving profit picture.

  • Gap brand momentum and new growth initiatives Gap brand comparable sales rose 10% for an 11th straight quarter. The company launched celebrity and entertainment partnerships—Hailey Bieber denim, Reed Krakoff handbags, a boy band JYT collaboration—and expanded in the Middle East. These efforts aim to sustain customer engagement and future sales.

    These initiatives show how Gap plans to keep its core brand growing and offset weaker divisions.

▲2▼2

Gap's earnings beat and new Old Navy CEO lift shares, but tariffs and weak sales weigh

  • Q2 earnings beat and raised outlook Gap reported adjusted earnings of 52 cents per share, beating the 48-cent consensus, and raised its full-year profit outlook to $2.35-$2.45. This shows the company is more profitable than expected, which pushes the stock up.

    This is the main new event that directly caused the stock to surge.

  • New Old Navy CEO appointed Gap named Michael Francis as CEO of Old Navy, its largest brand, starting November 2. Investors hope he can turn around the struggling brand, which has seen declining sales, and this optimism lifts the stock.

    This is a new leadership change that investors see as a potential fix for a key problem.

  • Vietnam tariff hits supply chain Vietnam, a key production base for Gap, was hit with a 12.5% US tariff, higher than rivals like Bangladesh and Indonesia. This raises Gap's costs and makes its supply chain less competitive, which could hurt profits and push the stock down.

    This is a new tariff event that directly affects Gap's cost structure.

  • Weak sales and reliance on tariff refunds Gap's overall sales fell 2% and same-store sales dropped 1%. Also, most of the gross margin improvement came from one-time tariff refunds, not core operations. This suggests underlying business is still weak, which could limit future gains.

    This is a new detail from the earnings report that provides a counterweight to the positive earnings beat.

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

TJX beat twice, raised guidance, but Marmaxx slowdown and Ross pressure

  • Strong Q1 and Q2 beats with raised guidance TJX beat earnings estimates in both Q1 and Q2, raised full-year EPS guidance twice to $5.15–$5.20, and benefited from its defensive off-price model as investors rotated out of megacap tech.

    This shows the core positive momentum that drove the stock during the period.

  • Margin expansion and increased buybacks Q1 featured 6% comparable sales growth, a 29% EPS surge, margin expansion, and increased buybacks. Q2 saw international margins improve by 210 basis points and $2.4 billion returned to shareholders.

    These operational improvements and capital returns directly supported the stock price.

  • Marmaxx slowdown raises execution risk The key Marmaxx division slowed sharply to just 1% comparable growth—management called it self-inflicted—raising execution risk, with Q3 comps guided to only 2%–3%.

    This is a new negative development that tempered the outlook and pressured the stock.

  • Ross Stores outperformance intensifies competition Ross Stores outperformed with 10% comparable sales and raised guidance, intensifying competitive pressure and tempering TJX's outlook.

    This competitive threat is a new negative factor that weighed on TJX's relative performance.

August 2026
▼2▲1

TJX beats Q2 but Marmaxx slowdown and Ross pressure temper outlook

  • Q2 beat and raised guidance TJX beat Q2 estimates, raised full-year EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.20, lifted its long-term store target to 7,500, and posted 4% comparable sales with margin expansion. International margins improved 210 basis points, and strong cash flow funded $2.4 billion in shareholder returns.

    This is the core positive news that drove the stock this period.

  • Marmaxx slowdown raises execution risk The key Marmaxx division slowed sharply to just 1% comparable growth, which management called self-inflicted, raising execution risk. Q3 comps were guided to only 2%–3%, signaling near-term growth concerns.

    This is the main negative development that pressured the stock.

  • Ross Stores outperforms, pressuring TJX Ross Stores outperformed with 10% comparable sales and raised guidance, pressuring TJX shares. TJX still stands out versus struggling peers like Kohl's, but competitive pressure tempers the positive outlook.

    This highlights competitive dynamics that weighed on TJX's stock.

Latest
▲3▼1

TJX raises outlook and store target, but Marmaxx slowdown weighs

  • TJX raises full-year guidance and store target TJX lifted its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.20 and raised its long-term store target by 500 to 7,500 locations, planning to accelerate annual store growth to 4% starting fiscal 2028. This signals management confidence in future demand and supports a higher valuation.

    This is the core positive driver: higher guidance and expansion plans directly lift earnings expectations and investor confidence.

  • Marmaxx comparable sales slow to 1% TJX's largest division, Marmaxx (TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Sierra), saw comparable sales rise just 1% in Q2, down from 6% in Q1. CEO Herrman called the store-mix problems self-inflicted, and Jim Cramer criticized management for not explaining the fix. This raises execution risk and could pressure the stock.

    This is the main counterweight: a sharp slowdown in the biggest division threatens the growth story and investor patience.

  • International margin expands and affluent shoppers drive demand TJX International's adjusted margin rose 210 basis points to 7.3% on higher sales and expense leverage. Meanwhile, Bernstein notes higher-income Americans are driving apparel sales, and TJX's exposure to affluent customers supports its Outperform rating and $175 target.

    These two factors show profit improvement abroad and a favorable customer mix, both supporting earnings and the bull case.

  • Strong cash flow and shareholder returns TJX generated $3.3 billion in operating cash flow in the first half and returned $2.4 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends, with plans for $2.75–$3 billion in repurchases this year. This supports the stock price by boosting earnings per share and signaling financial health.

    Cash returns and buybacks directly support the share price and show confidence in the business.

▲2▼2

TJX Q2 Beat and Raised Outlook, but Marmaxx Slows and Ross Shines

  • TJX beats Q2 and raises full-year guidance TJX reported Q2 EPS of $1.22, up 11%, with comparable sales up 4% and margin expansion. Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.20 and pretax margin to 12.0%–12.1%, and increased long-term store potential to 7,500. This signals strong momentum and supports the stock price.

    This is the core new event that directly drives TJX's valuation and investor confidence.

  • Marmaxx division slows sharply TJX's key Marmaxx division grew comparable sales only 1%, well below the company's overall 4% and peers. Management blamed internal execution and merchandise mix, not competition, and expects improvement by Q4. The slowdown raises concerns about near-term growth and pressures the stock.

    This is the main negative counterweight in the new period, explaining why TJX shares fell despite the earnings beat.

  • Ross Stores outperforms with 10% comparable sales Ross Stores reported a 10% jump in comparable sales and raised guidance, while TJX grew only 4% and guided Q3 comps to just 2%–3%. Ross shares rose while TJX fell, highlighting competitive pressure and investor preference for Ross's stronger momentum, which weighs on TJX's stock.

    This directly compares TJX to a key competitor and explains the negative sentiment and relative underperformance.

  • TJX stands out as Kohl's and other peers struggle Kohl's fell 6% despite a tariff refund, with comparable sales down 0.9%, while TJX posted organic 4% comp growth and raised guidance. This contrast reinforces TJX's resilient off-price model and attracts defensive investors, supporting the stock price.

    It shows TJX's relative strength in a tough retail environment, a positive driver for the stock.

July 2026
▲4

TJX beats, raises guidance, and shines as a defensive pick

  • Earnings beat and raised fiscal 2027 guidance TJX reported first-quarter earnings per share of $1.19, beating estimates, with sales up 9% and comparable store sales up 6%. Management raised full-year guidance, signaling strong momentum and boosting investor confidence, which pushes the stock price up.

    This is the core new event that directly drives TJX's stock higher.

  • Bullish thesis highlights defensive compounder A bullish thesis emphasized TJX's 6% comparable sales growth, margin expansion, 29% EPS surge, and increased buyback authorization. It positions TJX as a defensive hedge with a low-tech model that outperforms in downturns, attracting investors and supporting the stock price.

    This reinforces the positive narrative and explains why investors are buying TJX.

  • Discount retail peers show solid demand Ross Stores and other discount retailers reported strong Q1 results, with most beating revenue estimates. This indicates robust consumer demand for off-price retail, benefiting TJX as part of the sector and supporting its stock price through positive sentiment.

    It shows sector-wide demand strength that lifts TJX's outlook.

  • Market rotation and defensive appeal Money is rotating from megacap tech into financials and energy, and the Fed chair's inflation stance has investors seeking defensive stocks like TJX. This flight to safety and TJX's strong earnings beat drive demand for its shares, pushing the price up.

    It explains the broader market shift that benefits TJX as a defensive stock.

▲4

TJX beats, raises guidance, and shines as a defensive pick

  • Earnings beat and raised fiscal 2027 guidance TJX reported first-quarter earnings per share of $1.19, beating estimates, with sales up 9% and comparable store sales up 6%. Management raised full-year guidance, signaling strong momentum and boosting investor confidence, which pushes the stock price up.

    This is the core new event that directly drives TJX's stock higher.

  • Bullish thesis highlights defensive compounder A bullish thesis emphasized TJX's 6% comparable sales growth, margin expansion, 29% EPS surge, and increased buyback authorization. It positions TJX as a defensive hedge with a low-tech model that outperforms in downturns, attracting investors and supporting the stock price.

    This reinforces the positive narrative and explains why investors are buying TJX.

  • Discount retail peers show solid demand Ross Stores and other discount retailers reported strong Q1 results, with most beating revenue estimates. This indicates robust consumer demand for off-price retail, benefiting TJX as part of the sector and supporting its stock price through positive sentiment.

    It shows sector-wide demand strength that lifts TJX's outlook.

  • Market rotation and defensive appeal Money is rotating from megacap tech into financials and energy, and the Fed chair's inflation stance has investors seeking defensive stocks like TJX. This flight to safety and TJX's strong earnings beat drive demand for its shares, pushing the price up.

    It explains the broader market shift that benefits TJX as a defensive stock.